Tornado Watch

Tornado Watch for the entire viewing area until 6:00am Saturday:

More Info...

Severe weather is now moving through the Miami Valley! Severe thunderstorms are now affecting Montgomery, Green, Darke and Preble Counties in Ohio... and Wayne County, in Indiana. Again, strong winds are the main threat with these thunderstorms. Lots of lightning and heavy rain are likely... and there could even be some penny-sized hail.

During the 11 o'clock hour, there was a confirmed tornado on the ground in Henry County, Indiana... just west of Wayne County. Local law enforcement reported a tornado on the ground near US 40... East of Lewisville. However, Wayne County officials tell us they have no reports of a tornado touchdown in their county. Here is their info:

IND logged the report by law enforcement at 1118 six miles east of Lewisville. That places it close to Straughn in SE Henry County. At 1120 a trained spotter reported the funnel cloud near Milton. Somewhere between Straughn and Milton, the tornado must have lifted. Emergency units are still looking - and it's tough going in the rain and dark - but no structural damage has been found as yet. We haven't heard any damage reports out of Henry County, either.

We will continue to bring you updates!

Jamie

Evening Update

Severe Weather is racing across Illinois and Indiana tonight. There is a tremendous amount of lightning with these storms as they are coming across Central Indiana! Let's take a look at what the thunderstorms have done so far...





Damage reports as of 9pm are shown above. The storms that we are watching have mostly WIND DAMAGE. As we've been thinking... wind damage will be our main threat overnight. Winds estimated at 70 to 80 miles-per-hour downed trees and damaged homes in Andrews, IN.. (near Fort Wayne). Weather spotters also reported a tornado about nine miles northeast of Lafayette around 7:30pm.

HEAVY RAIN will also be possible for us overnight. A thunderstorm dumped nearly THREE inches of rain in about 90-minutes northwest of Lafayette, IN. There was also a report from the NWS out of Joliet, IL of almost SIX inches of rainfall in two hours. Wow!!

Here are the watches and warnings as of 9pm:





We still could be put in either a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch. The leading edge of the rain is moving into our northern counties as of 9:30pm. We should see the thunderstorms reach Montgomery County after midnight. We will be here to keep you posted on watches and warnings on Channel 2!

Jamie

Thunderstorms Likely Tonight

FRIDAY NIGHT’S FORECAST…BREEZY & HUMID WITH SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS, HAIL & POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO…LOW 64

SATURDAY’S FORECAST…PARTLY SUNNY & WARM WITH A CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM…HIGH NEAR 80

A cool front heading out of the Plains will bring showers & thunderstorms into the area later this evening into early Saturday morning. Some of these storms could be severe & we will use THE POWER OF LIVE DOPPLER 2X to track this activity as it moves acrossEastern Indiana & Western Ohio. Here is a look at the thunderstorms as they begin strengthening this afternoon:

And Tornado Watches are already in effect:

We will keep you posted of any watches or warnings on Channel 2.

Dry weather will be with us during the morning hours on Saturday & Sunday with a chance of a few scattered showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon hours.

Jamie

Quiet Here But Stormy in Central US

THURSDAY NIGHT'S FORECAST...FEW CLOUDS & PLEASANT... LOW 54

FRIDAY'S FORECAST...PARTLY SUNNY BREEZY WARMER & MORE HUMID WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS AT NIGHT...HIGH 82

High pressure continues to bring us nice weather here in the Miami Valley. Another day with full sunshine! Our temperatures were a bit warmer today than yesterday... and tomorrow, we will continue the warming trend. We'll tack on five more degrees... to put us into the lower 80s during the afternoon hours.

Things will change for us as a strong storm moves our way Friday night. Today, that storm is causing a lot of severe weather in the Plains. Here is a lookat the beginning of a long day in Nebraska and Iowa:



The Severe Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Tornado Watch for much of Nebraska. One of the watches is a PDS Watch. A Particularly Dangerous Situation! Yes, there really is such a thing:



So while they get the rough weather today... we have our chance of severe thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday. The best chance right now looks to be between 10pm Friday and 4am Saturday. We'll be tracking the storms with Live Doppler 2X, and will keep you updated throughout the event. Stay tuned!

Jamie

Radiational Cooling Means Chilly Mornings

High Pressure has settled into the region. This feature brought us the wall-to-wall sunshine today, and the cooler temperatures/lower humidity. What a nice day!

As the center of the High moves right over the Miami Valley tonight, we will have another chilly start on Thursday morning. It’s what we call RADIATIONAL COOLING. Clouds usually help keep us warmer at night, but with clear skies and light winds… the heat of the day escapes right back into the atmosphere. That leaves colder conditions at the surface… and cold air is dense air, so it sinks. That is why the low lying areas are typically the coldest spots! Here is a series of graphics to help illustrate radiational cooling:

The High will be with us for a few days, and as it moves East over time… we’ll see a slow warm-up. The next chance of thunderstorms is Friday night into Saturday!

Jamie

The New Blog is Coming...

Hello, Bloggers!

What a big change in our weather this evening! It is hard to believe just 30 hours ago, we were in the lower 80s, with dew points in the lower 60s! Tonight as of 10:30pm, our temperature is 52 degrees... with a dew point of 45! THAT'S a cold front for ya! Normally, I would call it "cool"... but after the summerlike conditions we had... it really feels chilly tonight.

Even though the suface cold front is to our south, we still have some lingering showers. Some energy in the middle of the atmosphere is kicking this off... as it moves to our East (by say 2am)... we will continue to dry out. Wednesday is a dry day!

We'll have some clouds around EARLY Wednesday, but will see sunshine as the day goes on. The RUC model has clouds with us at 5am... but then clears us out by 8am. Not sure if it's really going to happen THAT fast... but it should happen nonetheless!

Click to enlarge

So the new blog is coming to our website THIS WEEK! Are you ready for the change? We had a conference call about it today. I like the new format... it will be interesting to see how you all like it. Please let us know what you think. One thing... you will have to register to comment. But once you register, you are set for ALL the WDTN blogs. And there will be more than just the weather blog! :) Anyway, your bookmarks will be changing, as we will have a new web address for the blog... so keep that in mind. THURSDAY AFTERNOON is d-day.

Jamie

Summer-Like!

I hope you all had a fantastic Memorial Day Weekend! Riverblast was a great time on Saturday... and thanks to everyone who stopped by the WDTN tent to say hello and get some free goodies! And... WOW... the weather could not have been BETTER! :)


Today, it really felt like summer out there! We climbed to 82-degrees this afternoon, with dew points in the lower 60s. That hasn't happened too much this season, as temperatures have been running below average. Today is our first 80-degree day this month, believe it or not! And only our second this season. We are still running about 3.3 degrees below average for the month.


Compare this cooler weather pattern we are in NOW with the one we had last spring... and it's pretty amazing! Last year at this time, we had already touched 80-degrees 16 times! But in 2006, it was cooler... much like this year... and it had only happened ONCE.


We will return to the cooler temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday, on the other side of our cold front. Tonight, the front is still up near Chicago:




It will come through during the early morning... bringing the cooler, less-humid air in as the day goes on. Until the front comes through... we continue the chance of showers and thunderstorms. However it just does not look as impresive as it once did. The rain that tried to move in earlier today just fell apart as it headed our way. Drier air aloft and little in the way of forcing probably won that battle. Look closely just ahead of the cold front. Some thunderstorms were trying to get going early this evening... but even those are weakening! We still can't rule out some showers... *maybe* a rumble of thunder... but severe weather seems less and less likely.


Otherwise, it looks pretty quiet through a good part of the week. I hope you enjoy it!


Jamie

HUGE Tornadoes!

While we are experiencing a beautiful day here in the Miami Valley... strong thunderstorms have produced an extremely large tornado north of Denver, Colorado.


The supercell thunderstorm hit Weld County... about 50-miles north of Denver. Buildings were damaged... cars and semis tossed around... and at least one person was killed. Weld County Sheriff John Cooke said the man was killed at a campground west of Greeley... which is about 60-miles north of Denver. The man's identity wasn't immediately released. A caretaker of a nearby campground said the man was in a recreational vehicle that was destroyed by the storm.


At one point there was a report of the tornado being a MILE WIDE! The town of Windsor seems to have taken the brunt of the storm. Splintered wood, mangled metal and other debris cluttered roads, yards and fields. About 130 children at a daycare center in Windsor were reported safe after the storm passed through; playground equipment outside the center was damaged.


Here are today's storm reports... notice all the red dots in Colorado, Wyoming... and more recently, Kansas:




Click to enlarge

And now a few photos of the storm and it's damage:









Can you imagine driving around the road and coming up on that huge tornado??!! You can see more photos in a slide show at the Denver NBC station's website CLICK HERE FOR KUSA SLIDE SHOW.


Back here at home, we are still forecasting a great weekend! There are some questions about Friday's weather, however. The models are showing an area of moisture creeping closer and closer to the Dayton area (Dayton is the pink dot):


Click to enlarge

This could mean more cloud cover for the southwest portion of the viewing area Friday afternoon. We can't rule out a spotty shower for locations south and west of Richmond to Dayton to Xenia. Highs Friday are still expected to be in the 60s. Then the BIG warm-up over the weekend, with 70s... and 80s by Monday!!


Have a great evening/night!!
Jamie

Precip and Changes

We have been going through a cool, wet period of weather here in the Miami Valley. So far this month, our temperatures are running about 2 degrees below average. Our rainfall is well above average... for the month, and for the year:






This is partially due to our stubborn upper level trough we have been talking about. As we are still IN the trough, we will continue to be cool:

Active, unsettled weather is typcially found in troughs. While we picked up some pretty good rain late last night and early this morning... our rain chances are slowly going down. They are still there, however! But notice how they are weakening. Below, you can see a cold front to our south and east. This is part of the system that brought the overnight rain to us. Notice now a weaker disturbance is swinging in from the northwest. This will keep the chance of sprinkles or a brief light shower in the forecast through the first part of Wednesday:

BUT... we'll soon make a switch, as we await the PATTERN CHANGE! That is when we are expecting that ridge to our west to build in and bring back the sunny, warmer weather. We'll still be below-average temperature-wise through the end of the week, but look for highs in the upper 70 to near 80 degrees as the ridge builds in over the weekend!

Not only is there going to be a big change in our weather pattern, we are also going to see some changes here on the blog soon! We are going to a new format. This is all still very new to us... we actually have a training session next week! We are very excited, and will still bring you our in-depth thoughts, and the details behind the forecasts. You can still ask questions here... it will just be a different set-up! We would love your feedback and suggestions as we go along! More to come over the next week or so! Stay tuned!

Jamie

Upper Troughs and Ridges

As Erik mentioned in yesterday's blog entry... we are stuck in this cooler weather pattern for the rest of this work week. An upper-level trough will keep us with lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s. While Tuesday and Wednesday may still feel a little cool... it will begin to feel a bit better by mid-week... because the sun will come out more!

Last week, when we were looking at the ECMWF model, it had a big ridge of high pressure building in from the EAST... bringing very warm conditions for the upcoming holiday weekend. That is what I was referring to when I blogged briefly on Friday about highs nearing 80 degrees soon.

Now, most of the models are coming together, but showing something different. Now, the ridge is building in from the WEST, but with the same result--a warm-up by Saturday! Here's a look at the GFS model. First, the cooler pattern (trough) we are now in, and then the warm-up (ridge) for Friday...

Click to enlarge

It's interesting how the models can fluctuate so much... but the warm-up is still there. The weekend looks fabulous!

Jamie

Mid May! get out the...... Coat?

Usually a pattern like this sets-up during the winter months, bringing bitter cold air and fast moving systems out of the Canadian Provinces (They are the typical systems that move through the valley bringing light snow showers and blustery conditions during the winter months). This time of year the pattern is a little odd, but more so is the duration. It looks as if the jetstream will stay to our south for much of the week keeping our mornings chilly and our afternoons cool with partly cloudy skies. Currently it looks as though this pattern will hold until late this week... then gradually the heat that has been building in the plains will head this way! Soak up the nice cool weather, summer will be here soon enough!

Busy Week!

Sorry for the lack of blogging this week... we have been busy in the Live Doppler 2X Forecast Center! Next week we will be better about blogging!

We'll talk more about a potential warm-up that could have us near 80 degrees!

Have a great weekend!
Jamie

90-Degree Contest!

Hey, everyone! Don't forget to sign up for the 90-Degree Contest! You only have THREE MORE DAYS to enter!!

Here are the details...

It's time for the FIRST 90-DEGREE DAY CONTEST! How do you play? Well, you must guess what day we will hit 90-degrees for the first time this summer. Please follow these directions. If you do not follow them, your entry will be incomplete...

1) NAME
2) CONTACT INFO... email or phone number
3) DATE and TIME OF DAY you think we will reach 90-degrees for the first time this year... at the Dayton International Airport NWS station.
4) Send entries to jjarosik@wdtn.com
5) Entry deadline: May 15th

We only have about 30 official entries... so your chances are still really good!! :)
Good luck to everyone!
Jamie

Curious.... Could it Have been a Cold Air Funnel??

Cold Air funnel (pictured below)..... but whats the difference??

There is a very minor distinction between the two.... and no matter what happens... if a funnel cloud comes in contact with the ground it is called a tornado... but our system on Thursday looks to have grown from slightly different origins.

Your traditional tornado grows out of a strongly rotating thunderstorm... were the differences in wind speed and direction change as you get higher in the atmosphere. It's usually the strong up and down drafts in the cell that bend the quickly rotating column of air and eventually form the tornado. (traditional tornado formation pictured below).

With all of the rotation we had aloft (in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere) yesterday with that area of low pressure passing to our south... it is "possible" that it was a tornado... but it also could have been one of his much weaker cousins... called a "Cold Air Funnel"

I first learned about these back in my college days up at Valparaiso University. The National Weather Service would get multiple calls about funnel clouds... on generally cool, windy, drizzly, cloudy days. The meteorologists would then issue a statement alerting the community of these funnels and how they rarely cause damage. Now up around like Michigan they are much more common... after all, Cold Air Funnels are normally found close to large bodies of water (differences in temperatures from air over the land vs. air over water tend to help create the conditions needed to form them) but you can get them away from water as well. Away from water you need that same difference in temperature and wind... and that's exactly what you get on the back side of a Low pressure systems (just like what we had on Friday). The differences in air temperature and wind speed as cooler air moves in on the back side of the system interact with weak up and down drafts causing these funnels to grow... rarely do they ever make contact with the ground.

Here are a few more pictures of Cold Air Funnels....

These are from San Diego, CA

Breese IL, 2004

Now for the San Diego pictures you may be asking.... aren't those water spouts? Well traditionally tornadoes and cold air funnels form from the cloud and move towards the ground. Where things like dust devils and water spouts move from weak temperature differences at the surface and build skyward.

As for the picture from IL..... the only real way of knowing is to study how and in what environment the circulation formed.

Since I didn't see the actual funnel here in the Miami Valley (in person anyway)... let me know if those pictures look similar to what you saw in Clinton, Greene, and Clark counties! Cold air funnel... or Traditional tornado. What do you think?

Strange Day

It certainly wasn't your typical severe weather day here in the Miami Valley. This just goes to show, "Never say never when talking about the weather." That is my motto! And it holds true today.

There was no clashing of airmasses. There was no dryline. There wasn't even THUNDER or LIGHTNING. But there WERE three reports of tornadoes here in the Miami Valley! The two red dots in Ohio... one is near Jamestown in Green County, and the other near Selma in Clark County:

Click to enlarge

One tornado touchdown that did not make the map above is the one in Clinton County. That one happened near Port William. Thankfully, there were no major damage reports... and no injuries. But we did get a lot of viewer photos of FUNNEL CLOUDS! The thing to remember about tornadoes and funnel clouds... tornadoes are in contact with the ground. Funnel clouds are NOT.

This first photo was sent in from a viewer in Clinton County. It is a very CLEAR shot of a funnel cloud over Port William:

Tese next shot is from Jim Kohut of Springfield. Another great shot of a funnel cloud... Jim spotted it near Route 41 and old 70:

These next two photos are from Dave Marshall in Clark County. He took these overlooking Beard Rd. viewing from west to east in Clark co. at approximately 6:45p.m. You can see the funnel cloud just over the barn in the distance:

And this last picture is from Gloria Grimm. She set out to take some funnel cloud pictures, but never saw any! Instead, she saw the 2 News Team, On Your Side with coverage of the storms:

If you ever have any cool recent weather photos... you can always share them with us! Send them to weather@wdtn.com

Thanks, and have a great night!

Jamie

Spotty For Now... But Not For Long!

We have a few spotty showers in the area this late afternoon! There was even a thundershower up in Mercer County. Here is what it looked like on LIVE DOPPLER 2X at 5:30pm:

Click the radar for the current loop

Yes, we have a big ridge of high pressure over the area... but a weak mid-level feature has brought about enough lift to create this isolated rain. You can also see the moisture associated with the wave on the 700mb level:

Click to enlarge

These showers will be around during the evening, but should come to an end as the wave moves off to our East early tonight.

But otherwise, it was a beautiful day across the area! Temperatures reached the upper 70s to near 80 degrees for most of us. We are, again, in the WARM SECTOR... as a warm front is to our North. The cold front is still in the Plains... causing severe weather there today:

Click to enlarge

That cold front will be HERE late Wednesday into Thursday... increasing our chances for rain and thunderstorms. We are not expecting any organized severe weather, but we could see some heavier downpours out of this system, as it lingers for a couple of days. We'll be watching it and update the forecast as we go along!

Below are some pictures of the Walk for Women's Wellness on Sunday. It was one of the biggest crowds EVER!! Thanks to everyone who took part. Jeff Brown from our Art Department took these great shots:

Enjoy the evening!

JJ

High Pressure Protection

The High pressure system that worked in on your Sunday looks like it's going to keep things pretty nice here in the Miami Valley for the next few days. These systems typically bring cool mornings (40's) and comfortably dry afternoons (60's,70's) this time of year... so soak it up! Before long we'll all be talking about the heat!

Looking at the extended range across the country we do have an onslaught of systems. The first two will just barely glance us.... actually going up and over the ridge then sliding back south once they get to the east coast. But by Mid week the ridge will begin to break down and a larger area of low pressure will build in from the west. This system seems to be cut off from the main flow... meaning it is not your typical severe weather maker. Southern states could see some tornadic weather... and for us, the possibility of a few stronger storms exists... but mostly for hail. Storm system #4 could give us some rain on Saturday.... but we'll have to watch and see how this all pans out.

Warm Sector

We are very warm today... with highs in the mid-70s across much of the area. The official high at Dayton International Airport has made it to 76 degrees. Why so warm? We are in the WARM SECTOR.


Air around LOW PRESSURE moves counter-clockwise. Take a look at the map below:



Click to enlarge

You can see LOW PRESSURE in the Central Plains. Ahead of it, we are enjoying the Southerly winds, and the warmer air. It will also start to feel more humid on Friday, and the threat of showers... maybe a thunderstorm... increases.


Early Saturday, we will still be in the WARM SECTOR, so we will start the weekend mild and muggy. A weakening line of thunderstorms will likely be moving in during the early morning hours. This line should move back OUT of the area between 8 and 10am. Then we'll enjoy a nice dry period... before showers and thunderstorms move back in for the late afternoon/evening.


Sunday, we are in the cooler air behind this storm... so we'll see highs near 60-degrees... and dry weather.


Have a good one!
Jamie