It's Time...

OK, first let's talk about the weather situation! We have a stationary front that is basically dividing the viewing area once again. So some of our northern cities are reading cooler than the southern cities. Here in Dayton, we've reached the mid-80s today... our warmest day so far this year!!


There are showers and thunderstorms firing up just north of that front, so some of our northern cities may get clipped by this activity during the late afternoon and evening. A better chance for rain for all of us is on Tuesday, as a storm system to our west brings a cold front through. We could see some strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. We are thinking the best time would be between 2pm and 8pm. Strong winds, large hail and possibly an isolated tornado are all things we will be watching for!


OK... now on to the "big news" I told you about last week. Did you make it through the weekend? ;) I wanted to tell all of you bloggers before I even mentioned it on the air... well... because I feel like we're all a nice little family here. :)


It's probably not as exciting as I made it out to be. Well, it is to ME... but that is because it's happening to me! My husband and I are expecting our first child! I am a little over 12-weeks pregnant right now... and today I went down to the Midwives of Dayton for a check-up. We got to hear the heartbeat... and that was probably the sweetest sound I think I have ever heard. I cried! We also got an ultrasound, and here is your very first look at baby J:



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I know it is probably a little difficult to make that out... but I labled it, so you can at least have some points-of-refrence! The baby is lying on its stomach, with the head facing down. When we were watching Baby J, he/she was kicking up a storm! It was truly amazing to see!

I am due the first week of November... so you all will be able to watch me grow! I am already not fitting into some of my clothes. So far, everything has been going great... I have had some nausea, fatigue, and moodiness... which is all normal. Have you noticed me getting out of breath during weather? This has happened a few times, due to the changes going on. I am sure there will be many more adventures like this. :) So anyone that has any advice, or words of wisdom... I would love to hear them! Just comment below, or drop me an email to jjarosik@wdtn.com.

Thanks, and have a good one!
Jamie

The Weekend Ahead...

Before we take a look at the weekend forecast, let's talk a little bit about the severe weather we experienced on Thursday.

Much of the area saw thunderstorms, as we were in the "warm sector" of the storm system. That is what we call the area between the warm front and the cold front. We saw some pretty heavy downpours, and some places picked up over an inch of rainfall. My rain gauge in Kettering was reading close to 2"... and Carl did tell me the rain was coming down so hard, he could barely see out his window as the deluge came down!

We had a hail report up in Shelby County... and a few wind damage reports up there, too. One was just west of Sidney... the other, in the Northeast part of the county. Up in Auglaize County... another wind damage report, near Wapakoneta. But that was it for our viewing area! Pretty lucky, I'd say!

It was much worse just off to our Southeast. About 90 miles away, there was a confirmed tornado touchdown! This was in Brown County... here is the info from the National Weather Service in Wilmington:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1137 AM EDT FRI APR 27 2007

TORNADO CONFIRMED IN NORTHEAST BROWN COUNTY. A SURVEY TEAM FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ASSESSED THE DAMAGE IN NORTHEAST BROWN COUNTY THIS MORNING. IT WAS DETERMINED THAT THE DAMAGE WAS CAUSED BY A TORNADO.

THE TORNADO OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AROUND 655 PM ABOUT 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF MACON...ALONG STEELE ROAD...BETWEEN MELBLANC ROAD AND FINCASTLE WINCHESTER ROAD. THE DAMAGE WAS FAIRLY ISOLATED BUT INCLUDED A PORCH BLOWN OFF THE FRONT OF A HOUSE AND SOME DAMAGE TO A BARN. SEVERAL TREES WERE ALSO SNAPPED OFF.

THE TORNADO HAS BEEN RATED AS AN EF0 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 65 TO 85 MPH.

Now for a look ahead to the weekend... and it looks great! Saturday is a little tricky, though. As a very weak disturbance swings through, there MAY be a spotty light shower. But we should see some sunshine in there, and it will be a warmer day, with highs in the upper 60s.

Sunday gets the "best day of the weekend" award, however... with mostly sunny skies in the forecast. Recently someone blogged in "when will we see tanning weather again?" Well, that could be Sunday and several days next week would fit that definition, as well! We'll be in the mid-70s Sunday and near 80 for Monday and Tuesday. Just don't forget the sunscreen!

Have a great weekend! And stay tuned next week for a big announcement!! No cheating... I am NOT giving any clues!! ;)

Jamie

Tornado Watch

Greetings, Bloggers...

We have a TORNADO WATCH in effect for the entire viewing area until 10pm Thursday. We have only had one tornado warning so far... that was for Wayne County, IN... and a handful of severe thunderstorm warnings for some of our northern counties.

The only damage report we have recieved is some wind damage just to the west of Sidney in Shelby County. Our weather checker there, Don Shatto, also reported heavy rain, lots of lightning and gusty winds.

As of this writing... (5:45pm)... there are no warnings. But there ARE still thunderstorms out there! And any one of them could become severe... so we will be here watching the situation all evening on Live Doppler 2X.

Please let us know what you experience as the evening goes on... and if you get any pictures, you can send them to: weather@wdtn.com

Here are a few photos we received from viewers tonight... the first one comes from Carissa Parker of Richmond, Indiana:


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She took this as the sirens were going off in Richmond (remember the tornado warning in Wayne Co). It's a pretty cool shot of threatening clouds.

The next is from Tyler Cheatham of Miamisburg:


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He was able to capture a break in the rain and snapped this cool picture of the sun peaking out! This next one is from a viewer in Xenia...


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And now for one from our Fountain City, IN weather checker, Bill Gard:


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The skies cleared near his home, and he was able to catch this thunderstorm in the distance... beautiful!! The photo below is from one of our Eaton weather checkers, Jonathan Marker:


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Some threatening clouds passing over Eaton! And last... two pictures from Lewisburg. The first one is from Jason Thompson, and was taken around 3:30 this afternoon:

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And the last picture is from Kirby Harris of Lewisburg:

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This one was taken around 7:30pm... skies cleared a bit before the sun went down. It made for the perfect picture!

Thanks everyone, and have a great night!
Jamie

A Slight Risk of Severe

There is still a chance we could see some stronger storms this afternoon and evening. However, as of this writing we are still seeing a lot of cloud cover and the continuation of light rain. The dynamics are there for potential severe but thermodynamics ( heat and moisture) are going to be limiting factors. Watch for some breaks in the clouds in the afternoon. If those clouds begin to break that will open the door for a severe threat. Stay tuned.

A Valley Divided

It's been a very interesting day across the Miami Valley! If you live in the Northern part of the viewing area... you have delt with COOL temperatures all afternoon; you've been holding in the upper 40s! And if you live in the Southern half of the Miami Valley... it was WARM and HUMID... into the upper 60s and even 70s! This 20+ degree temperature spread is because a warm front has been draped right across the viewing area this afternoon.


And this is VERY cool. You can actually SEE the warm front on Radar this afternoon! Take a look at the radar image below, and see if you can pick out where the warm front is. I will draw it on at the end of this blog entry:



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This front is actually moving to the south as I type this... so expect a cooler evening as the front makes it's way south of our entire veiwing area tonight. On Thursday, that front will move back north... once again bringing in warm and humid conditions. This time, we think it will move through the entire viewing area, so even the northern counties should warm-up. With this comes that chance of thunderstorms... and, yes, some of them could be severe. Here is the SPC's Severe Weather Outlook for Thursday:




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They have placed us in a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather. What does this mean? Well, below, we can see how they are breaking it down:


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Much of the Miami Valley is in the 30% area... that means there is a 30% chance we will see severe thunderstorms. So this is something we'll be watching as we head through Thursday. The best chance would be in the afternoon... and possibly into the evening... so stay tuned!

Now on to the warm-front-radar key. Here it is:


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Did you get it right??

Jamie

Ch-ch-changes!

After another nice day across the region... things they are a-changin'! The slow-moving storm currently in the Plains is heading our way, and should bring us some thunderstorms overnight.

There has been quite a bit of severe weather out there today... with tornadoes reported in Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. Here is a look at all the severe reports so far:

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On the back-side of this storm... would you believe a foot of snow fell in the Colorado foothills?! Denver even got snow today... sheesh...

Anyway, the rain/thunderstorms will begin for us overnight, and will continue pretty steady on Wednesday morning. We are not expecting much in the way of severe... just some good soaking rains. The warm front stays south of us on Wednesday (see yesterday's surface map)... which also means cooler temperatures. BUT the front pops NORTH of us for Thursday:

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That will mean a warmer... and more HUMID day... with a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of THURSDAY'S thunderstorms could be on the strong side... we have to watch it. We could see more than an inch of rainfall between Wed and Thurs... which means some minor flooding is possible. And areas that see thunderstorms could see even higher rainfall totals. If you have a rain gauge... please let us know how much rain you get!

And if you have any fun suggestions of how to keep my 1 1/2-year-old Lab from getting antsy during this wet period... please let me know that, too! ;)

On another topic, many of you have asked about your trees/shrubs that may have been damaged by the cold snap we experienced not too long ago. I went straight to the top man himself, Marty Grunder, of Grunder Landscaping. Here is what he had to say:

"We just need to wait for mother nature to do her thing on the plants. We can't tell at this point the damage from the cold snap. Another week or so, will tell it all.

Its a great time to plant right now.....but still too early for annuals and perennials. Their tender foliage will burn if we get another frost and the plants most likely would die. The normal frost free date is mother's day."

And don't forget... Mother's Day is May 13th!!

Jamie

Changing weather throughout the week!!

What a great Monday for us with temperatures climbing into the 70's to near 80° this afternoon. Only problem was the wind gusting in the 35-45 mph range during the day. A weak cool front is approaching the Miami Valley producing the gusty winds & will also give us the chance for a scattered shower or thunderstorm this evening. The storms prediction center is tracking our weather & is indicating a possibilty of a spotty strong storm this evening with gusty winds & hail. As the front slips through later tonight we get back to dry weather on Tuesday .

Another low pressure system develops on Wednesday to our west & brings more rain & thunderstorms to the area. Here is a look at the surface map for Wednesday:

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This storm is going to be a slow-mover... affecting us Wednesday through Friday. We could see several rounds of rain/thunderstorms... some of it being heavy rain. So enjoy one more nice day on Tuesday... before this change moves in! After the rainy period, next weekend actually looks good... so maybe we can make it two in a row!

Carl

Happy Birthday to Carl!

Today is Chief Meteorologist Carl Nichols' birthday! We won't get into numbers regarding his age... but we WILL thank him for the great weekend forecast, in which the numbers (temperatures) are also going UP! :)

A large ridge of high pressure is building over the area. Here is a look at the GFS model for Sunday morning. This is the 500mb level, or about 18,000 feet up in the atmosphere. Do you see the big ridge? I drew in the "H" in the center of the ridge.

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You can always tell a ridge because it sort of looks like a dome over your area, extending in from the south. And because the jet stream is way up to the north, warmer air is able to work in under this ridge! We also have high pressure at the surface:

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As the high slips just off to our East on Sunday, temperatures will warm even more! That is because winds will be coming in from the southwest... helping to pump in even warmer air. We're thinking lower 70s on Saturday... and mid-to-upper 70s on Sunday! Lots of sunshine all the way, too! This will be the nicest weekened in quite awhile!

Another thing to notice on that surface map... there is also a cold front waiting in the wings! That front will affect us on Monday... bringing the chance of a few spotty showers. The moisture in association with that front is not very impressive, but there is some lift, so we'll have to watch it.

I hope you all enjoy this SPECTACULAR weekend!!!!!!!!!!!

Jamie

Spring Makes a Comeback

After spending the better part of the month of April with unseasonably cool temperatures, readings will make a substantial rise this weekend. The upper level low that has produced a few showers yesterday and this morning will start to move quickly off to the southeast this afternoon and into tonight. This will allow skies to clear. With abundant late April sun for the weekend we will see those temperatures jump into the 70s during the afternoon. Enjoy!!!

Just a bump in the road!!!

I hope you had a chance to enjoy the beautiful weather we had today because the next few days we will have a a little bump in the road. A weak upper air system (at about 18,000 ft) will bring the area more clouds, cooler temperatures & the threat of some showers for the next few days. You can see it below on our 500mb map valid for Wednesday morning:

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That Low will continue to affect us on Thursday, but on Friday we'll return to our march toward nice Spring weather! We'll see drier weather returning & continuing through the weekend. Right now the weekend looks fantastic with sunshine & temperatures climbing into the 60's & low 70's. The long range outlook calls for our temperatures to remain normal & a little above normal right through next week.

Carl

Record Warmth!

No... not THIS month... but LAST month!!

Today, NOAA reports that March 2007 is officially the second warmest March on record for the United States! The average temperature last month was 48.1 degrees F... only March 1910 was warmer in the 113-year national record.

Here in Dayton, we saw a lot of 60 and 70 degree high temperatures in March... and remember the 80 degree day on March 27th?! How could we forget that? :)

This is pretty amazing to me. You know, we break DAILY averages here and there... and that's not really THAT impressive. But when we are breaking MONTHLY averages... that is much more significant! Keep in mind that this 2nd WARMEST March for the US follows the 2nd COLDEST February on record for Dayton!!

Wait... didn't we do this last year? Well, sort of... Jan. 2006 set a record for the WARMEST January ever in the US... and tied for the 2nd warmest on record in Dayton last year!

And now we are going through an April... where our average temperature is six degrees below the average for the month! Don't worry. Things should be warming up as we head through this week and into next weekend. We're still looking close to 70 by Sunday! I know a lot of you are excited about that!

Have a good one!
Jamie

Nor'easter!!

The storm that brought us the clouds, rain and some light snow... is dumping a LOT of snow and rain in parts of the Northeast. It has become a full-blown Nor'easter... and it's packing quite a punch! Airport delays are pretty common in areas affected by this storm. At last check, JFK had delays of up to 8 hours!! If you have travel plans, be sure to check the status of your flight, as this storm could have a domino effect on other locations. Here is a link to the FAA's Airport Delays website:

FAA

Some places in the Northeast will see up to a foot of snow... especially in parts of New York, Vermont, Maine and New Hampsire. The snow is going to be a heavy, wet snow... so this could lead to downed tree limbs and powerlines throughout the region. Heavy rain will also be common... so flooding is a threat... as well as VERY windy conditions. This will all lead to powerful surf, and beach erosion. What a mess!

For us, we do have a weak distrubance rotating in from the North this evening. That will give us the chance of a few sprinkles or flurries this evening and through the early part of the overnight. As we head into Monday afternoon, expect the sun to return, and temperatures should respond nicely, warming into the lower 50s.

The warming trend will continue Tuesday, with highs near 60! Wedensday is our little bump in the road, as another storm affects us... bringing slightly cooler temperatures, and the chance of some light precip. But by next weekend... we could be pushing 70!! Hang in there!

Have a great evening!
Jamie

Rain/Snow Mix

The sun is back!! If only for a day... It was sure nice outside this afternoon, with temperatures into the 50s and lots of sun. But as you bloggers know... things are changing!

The storm that will effect us over the weekend, is briging heavy snow and severe thunderstorms to the Central part of the country. My friends in Kansas City have a Snow Advisory in effect... they could see a few inches. But parts of Western/Central Kansas have seen up to 8" of snow already today!


And in Texas... there is a High Risk of severe weather, including tornadoes:




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So what will this powerful storm bring to the Miami Valley? Well, it's looking like we'll see a little of each... a little rain, a little snow. Overnight, we'll see an increase in cloud cover, and by morning... we could see rain showers, mixing with snow at times. During the afternoon, we should see a switch-over to all rain... and then the potential for a rain/snow mix returns Saturday night into Sunday morning. The storm will track South of us... keeping us with gusty Northeast winds and chilly temperatures through the weekend. Here is a look at the storm's forecasted path:




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The path is something we'll have to watch... because even a slight shift could mean a difference in the weather we see. Right now, our feeling is we'll see little or no snow accumulation. Some places could see a dusting, and the roads will be wet. So you'll need to be careful during the nighttime hours... especially on bridges and overpasses... as temperatures will drop near freezing, and we could see some slick spots.

This storm will continue on to the East Coast, bringing significant rain, snow and wind. We will be hearing about it for days to come...

I hope you have a great weekend!!
Jamie

Hold Onto Your Hat!

If you suffer from Ancraophobia... today was not your day! (Ancraophobia is the fear of wind, FYI!) Winds were sustained around 20 to 30 miles per hour... and gusting close to 40 mph at times! Carl and I were almost blown away in the parking lot! :) The winds should die down overnight a bit... it will still be breezy... but not as gusty as the day has been.

Carl, Dan Edwards and I attended the Celebrity Waiters Luncheon in Eaton today... for Hospice and the United Way. It is a huge event, with more than 300 people... and it raises money for a VERY good cause! I had a great table (hello to you all!) which included our Weather Checker from New Paris (David Wesler). Our Eaton Weather Checker (Jim Shank) was also there... along with Frank Lemen... AND some pretty cool athletes: Icky Woods, James Brooks, Pete Johnson and Tom Browining. Our job as waiters was to bring our tables drinks, food and whatever else they needed. I had most of the other celebrity waiters autograph my apron, and I auctioned it off at the end (all money going to the charity, of course!) What a fun day! Thanks to everyone that came out to support the cause!

Anyway, back to the weather... Friday looks rather nice (compared to where we have been lately). We'll be partly cloudy with highs near 50 degrees. But things change for the weekend! We're watching a storm that will track south of us. Right now, our area is RIGHT on the rain/snow line... so we could see a little of both by the time the weekend is through. Right now, it looks like the best chance for a wet snow accumulation will be North of I-70... but we will have to watch it. It just doesn't seem right to be talking about snow in April! BUT... the latest we have seen measurable snow in Dayton is actually May 9th, believe it or not! Let's hope we don't break that record this year! ;)

Have a great evening!
Jamie

Where o Where is Spring??

I'm back from a week in Florida & I thought I might bring some of their warm weather back to the Miami Valley. What was I thinking!! Mother Nature has her own agenda.

The upper wind pattern over the U.S. continues to favor warm weather over the West & unseasonably chilly weather over the Eastern States. The latest model run is indicating a possible major Spring storm developing in the Southeast on Saturday & heading up the East Coast over the weekend bringing snow to the interior sections of the Northeast. Some places could see up to a foot or more of snow by Monday. You can see the strong storm centered just off the East Coast on the GFS model below (valid Monday morning):



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The long range outlook is showing some signs of change in the upper wind pattern & more favorable for a warming trend for us next week. Keep your fingers crossed!!!

We will have thunderstorms this evening as a strong cold front sweeps through the Ohio Valley & we could have some hail & gusty winds now through about 9pm. If you get some of the above give us a shout on the blog.

Carl

One More Freeze Warning

Yes... it's true... the Great Lakes Trough will finally be lifting out! Yeaaaayyyyy! One more cold night (Mon night into Tues AM)... and we should be done with the sub-freezing temperatures for awhile. Would you believe morning lows have been in the 20s or colder for SEVEN days straight?! Amazing at this time of year!

While this trough has kept us cloudy and cold with light snow... it has brought tremendous lake-effect snow to the Cleveland area. I was up there visiting family over the holiday weekend, and it was really odd to see a half a foot of snow on the ground on Easter! And that was one of the smaller amounts... places just to the East of Cleveland picked up anywhere from 20 to 30 inches!! I had hoped to catch a few Indians games while I was up there, to keep track of some of my fantasy players (anyone esle into fantasy baseball??)... but no such luck with the snow and cold weather. The past 4 days... their games have been postponed! And on Tuesday, they will finally play their home opener, but not at home... they're moving to a dome... in Milwaukee! Sheesh!

Anyway, as the upper trough moves away, we'll see the return of SUNSHINE on Tuesday (remember that?!) That will help our afternoon highs climb up near 50 degrees. Another storm approaches for Wednesday, bringing a good shot of rain to the area. The models are different in the intensity and rainfall amounts... but we will get a better feel as new data comes in Tuesday afternoon.

This week will feature some ups and downs in our temperatures. We'll see 50s a majority of the week... and by next weekend we could even be into the 60s!! But don't get too used to it. Looking at some of the data... I have a feeling the cold weather won't be gone for long!

Have a great night,
Jamie

A Cold Easter

Temperatures well below normal will continue into the weekend. Last night we dropped to 21°. Another reinforcing shot of cold air is coming down the pike later today and tonight which will also bring us another round of snow showers. There could be a dusting in some locations tonight and into Saturday morning. Things could be worse...Marquette, MI, in the U.P. has received over 30 inches of snow since a spring snow storm began 2 days ago...first as an upper lakes blizzard and then transitioning to a lake effect snow event. More lake snow is going to fall there into the Easter weekend which should make it the snowiest April month ever and that's only through the first week!

Easter will bring morning lows near 20 degrees with an afternoon high finally getting above 40 again. Remember Christmas?....the high was 41 with a low of 34. What are the odds of Easter having a colder average temp than Christmas?

Another Freeze Warning!

There is another FREEZE WARNING in effect for the entrie area through noon on Friday. Once again, temepratures will dip into the 20s... tonight we could be into the lower 20s as we'll see a bit of clearing.


Many of you have plants/trees that have come into bloom. If you can bring the plants in to save them... that is your best bet. If not, try to cover them with a sheet to keep some of the warmth in. Our new meteorologist, Erik Zarnitz, just did a story on trees... and here is his advice on that:


I've been speaking with some gardeners and orchard owners the past couple of days. If the tree is young or small.... (Japanese maples are a good example) you'll want to cover it tonight (sheets or burlap is the best Plastic can damage the plant)... and for the next couple of nights. Unfortunately with bigger trees that's almost impossible to do. If you own a fruit tree and its already flowered (the petals have fallen off) That means its been pollinated and should be ok. If its just starting to blossom now... that's when your looking at little to no fruit. (Big problems for orchard owners)

Now the orchard owners can spray there trees with a solution... it sorta acts like an anti-freeze, and they can also burn smudge pots (diesel fuel in a barrel), but with winds a little gusty the pots may not do too much good. They are hoping the temps stay in the mid 20's for a low... but if they get into the teens.... there is nothing they can do.

The fruit trees that will suffer the most (because they are currently in blume) are the Peach, Cherry, Plumb, some pear and a few apple trees.


Good info to have! Also, I wanted to share some photos that one of our bloggers sent in from the thunderstorms on Tuesday. These were sent in by MT:

You can see how threatening the clouds looked... imagine if there was just a bit more instability. I think it could have been a big storm day. We really are lucky it didn't get bad!

Anyway... back to the cold... Carl really knows how to pick a vacation to Florida, right?! :) He will be back on Monday, and I am sure he will be thrilled about the cooler weather. Haha! I hope you have a great night!

Jamie

Back to Winter

Hello, everyone!

I have had a LOT of people come up to me... shocked at how cold it is today. But I know all you Bloggers were prepared for this, right?? ;) Temperatures are a little more than 40 degrees below where we were yesterday... how crazy is that?! And to add insult to injury... it's WINDY and SNOWING in parts of the Miami Valley! We are not expecting any accumulation, but that just reinforces that Mother Nature can do what she wants, right?!

This cold is not terribly unusal, however. We did have an early Spring... so it just feels wrong. Believe it or not, a temperature of 32 degrees has been recorded in Dayton as late as May 22nd! Anyway... since we had been so warm, and now have this frigid change... there is a FREEZE WARNING in effect for the viewing area through Thursday morning. For the next three nights, our lows will dip down near 20 degrees... yikes!

OK, enough of the cold... let's talk about our newest member of the Live Doppler 2X Forecast Center... WEATHER BUG!! We've been "teasing" you for a few months about our new tool, and this is IT! It is going to be a great resource for us... the possibilities really seem endless. From NUMEROUS local reporting stations... we also have local cameras at our disposal. PLUS we have access to the network of Weather Bug stations across the country. So if a hurricane is hitting Florida, we can show you weather conditions down there! Or if a blizzard is going on in Nebraska, we'll be able to show you LIVE what it looks like. This is pretty exciting for us! We have used a few of the graphics already, but expect many more to be added as we head into May! And you can get Weather Bug on your own computer, too... many of you may already have it! Look for more info as we go along...

I hope you have a great night!
Jamie

Thunderstorms Then Cold

Greetings, Bloggers!


I hope you enjoyed the last of the nice days for awhile. Today we made it up to 77 degrees with quite a bit of sunshine. But the clouds increased as the afternoon went on... and now we are dealing with thunderstorms this evening. There was a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for the Miami Valley... but that has been cancelled, as we have not had any warnings. This is the perfect example of how things can go wrong. Yesterday it was looking SO impressive for severe weather... even this morning, it looked ideal. The SPC at one point, upgraded our "slight" risk to "moderate" risk. But one of the things that went wrong... the dew points didn't climb as high as expected. We spent much of the afternoon with our dew points only in the upper 40s... so we never really became as unstable as we were forecast.


So, the main Severe Weather threat has been to our southwest today... across Missouri, Illinois and Indiana.


We will continue with thunderstorms in the area right through the evening hours. We still have to watch it... as winds have been clocked up around 50 mph as some of these storms come through. But once the cold front passes through later tonight... the rain will shut off. You can see where the front is located right now... still back in Illinois/Indiana:

And on the back side of that front, temperatures will be MUCH colder, as we discussed yesterday. We'll drop to 40 degrees tonight... and won't climb very much tomorrow at all! Try to stay warm!

Jamie

PS... many of you have asked about Live Doppler 2X online... it was down for awhile, but seems to be up and running again. The animated version is still NOT working... but it will be back as soon as our tech team can figure out what is going on. Thank you for your patience!

Brace Yourself For Changes

Well, the weather we have been experiencing lately has been absolutely beautiful! Today, perhaps the best so far... not a cloud in the sky, and temperatures into the lower 70s. Tomorrow, we'll have one more day to enjoy. Expect a mix of sun and clouds, with highs in the mid (to even upper) 70s! But as a COLD FRONT approaches, we'll develop the chance of showers and thunderstorms late tomorrow afternoon and on into the evening hours.

Ahead of this front, we will be warm (as mentioned)... and our humidity will be coming up, too! The movement of higher moisture and temperature toward us is called "Theta-E Advection".
Here is a look at the increasing Theta-E tomorrow afternoon/evening:

An increase of Theta-E in low levels of atmosphere increases atmospheric instability. So we will have all of the ingredients that we need to get thunderstorms going late in the day.

1) Moisture surging in from the Gulf of Mexico
2) Instability
3) Lift (the approaching cold front)

And some of the storms could be strong, so be sure to review the blog below, regarding severe weather precautions! The potential for these severe storms looks to be the greatest between 7pm and midnight.

After the cold front is through, the threat for severe weather is completely shut off. Temperatures will plummet, and it will be windy! Highs for the remainder of the week will be in the 30s and 40s... with overnight lows down into the 20s! So if you have flowers or anything else coming up early in your yard, you'll want to take steps to protect them. Or even bring in potted plants, if you have those outdoors. To see how dramatic this temperature change will be... check out the before/after charts below. They really show the cold air advancing in! Brace yourself!

Enjoy this wonderful evening!
Jamie