TS Chantal

Well, sure enough, we were graced with Tropical Storm Chantal today! If you look at yesterday's blog entry... it's the Northern "feature on interest" off the US coast. Here is a snapshot of Chantal on this afternoon's satellite imagery:

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This Tropical Storm will continue to move into colder waters... and will not affect the US... as it heads in a northeasterly direction. But, again, there are other areas to watch as we head into the most active part of Hurricane season!

Back in the Miami Valley... not too many clouds out there today! A large area of high pressure will continue to dominate our weather through Thursday... keeping things sunny and hot. On Friday, a weak cold front will drop down from the Northwest. But will it make it here? Right now, it looks like it will wash out just north of us... and things will remain HOT right through the weekend. As the front approaches... there is a *slight* chance of a spotty shower or thunderstorm... especially to the North... Friday afternoon. Otherwise... keep that garden hose handy!!

Tomorrow during the 5:30 and 6pm newscasts... Carl is going to be LIVE down at Citirama at the University of Dayton! If you are down there and see our live truck, stop by to say hi to Carl! You can also head down there later this week to see the newly built student condos, and renevated houses in UD's south student neighborhood. Here are some details on the event:

CITIRAMA 2007

South Student Neighborhood

University of Dayton

THU & FRI 4-8 PM

SAT & SUN Noon-8 PM

At the corner of Frericks Way & Stonemill Rd.

The event is FREE... but does require tickets. You can get them at any National City Bank branch... the Dayton Daily News... the Home Builders Association of Dayton... Frank Z Chevrolet... OR at the gate (the UD Welcome Center).

Jamie

Hot Hot Hot!

Ahhhh, yes, back to reality! After a cooler than average stretch over the past week or so... things are heating up! We are definitely heading into the "Dog Days of Summer". This period of hot weather is officially defined as:

"The period when the Dog Star, Sirius, rises in conjunction (or nearly so) with the Sun. As a result, some felt that the combination of the brightest luminary of the day (the Sun) and the brightest star of night (Sirius) was responsible for the extreme heat that is experienced during the middle of the summertime."

And that's where we are right about now! We're also on the edge of what looks like a little heat wave for the Miami Valley! That would be three days or more in a row with temperatures at or above 90-degrees. That is pretty easy to do in August... so this may not be our first brush with a heat wave...

We're expecting lower 90s Wednesday through Friday... with high temperatures near 90 even as we head into the weekend. There is a front moving in for Saturday... but there's not a whole lot of moisture with it. We'll have to watch it. Right now... maybe a 20% chance of spotty showers/thunderstorms. So we'll definitely be watering this week!!

In the tropics... there is finally a little activity! There is some development near the Windward Islands in the Atlantic Ocean. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters are poised to check this system out if it continues to strengthen over the next two days. Another area of low pressure is just northwest of Bermuda right now. This one also has the potential to strengthen, so it will have to be watched. It's finally something after weeks of quiet!

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Anyway, have a good one!
Jamie

Thunderstorms!

Finally some much needed rain for most of the Miami Valley!!! Our Weather Bug Network shows Montgomery County picked up some of the heaviest rain today... with Centerville checking in at .86"... and Kettering picking up a whopping .91". That is good news, because Montgomery County has been missed in the recent past!

Conditions were right for a shot of severe weather this afternoon but early this afternoon the best lift & instabality shifted to the southwest over southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky. This keep the development of severe thunderstorms just to the West & Southwest of us... but left us with some good soakers across the area. Tonight, our cold front will come through... bringing an end to the rain alltogether... and it will actually be a pretty nice Air Show weekend. The humidity will still be a little high for Saturday and Sunday... but we can expect a mix of sun and clouds, with highs in the mid-80s.

As we head into next week, our temperatures will be on the rise, back into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees by mid-week. Dry weather returns as well... so we'll probably be watering again as the week goes on!

Enjoy your weekend,
Carl

Cold Front and Mars

Many locations picked up great rainfall amounts overnight and early Thursday morning! Here is a list of some of the amounts, as reported by our Weather Checkers:

Bradford: 1.8"
Sidney: 1.8"
New Carlisle: 1.7"
Piqua: 1.6"
Greenville: 1.3"
Tipp City: 1.2"
Yellow Springs: 1"
Fairborn: .7"
Xenia: .66"
New Paris: .7"
Eaton: .55"

So lots of good numbers there... but poor Bill Gard out in Fountain City! He only got .3"... and if I remember correctly, he has been lacking in rainfall the past few events. Well, for Bill and anyone else that missed out... a cold front is heaing our way... that means more rain chances!!

There may be something spotty overnight and early Friday morning... then a better chance will move in for Friday afternoon and evening as the front approaches. This is the batch of storms that has the potential for producing some severe weather. We'll watch for damaging winds, hail and possibly isolated tornadoes. We'll be here, keeping you advised through the event!

Now on to an email I recently received regarding Mars. And this isn't the first time I have gotten it... this is the second year in a row! First, let me tell you the email is a hoax. So if you get something like this... delete it!!

"The Red Planet is about to be spectacular! This month and next, Earth is catching up with Mars in an encounter that will culminate in the closest approach between the two planets in recorded history. The next time Mars may come this close is in 2287. Due to the way Jupiter's gravity tugs on Mars and perturbs its orbit, astronomers can only be certain that Mars has not come this close to Earth in the Last 5,000 years, but it may be as long as 60,000 years before it happens again.

The encounter will culminate on August 27th when Mars comes to within 34,649,589 miles of Earth and will be (next to the moon) the brightest object in the night sky. It will attain a magnitude of -2.9 and will appear 25.11 arc seconds wide. At a modest 75-power magnification Mars will look as large as the full moon to the naked eye. Mars will be easy to spot. At the beginning of August it will rise in the east at 10p.m. and reach its azimuth at about 3 a.m.

By the end of August when the two planets are closest, Mars will rise at nightfall and reach its highest point in the sky at 12:30 a.m. That's pretty convenient to see something that no human being has seen in recorded history. So, mark your calendar at the beginning of August to see Mars grow progressively brighter and brighter throughout the month. Share this with your children and grandchildren. NO ONE ALIVE TODAY WILL EVER SEE THIS AGAIN!"

The truth is... Mars WAS extremely close to the Earth back in August of 2003. So the email is referring an OLD EVENT. But even back then... the Red Planet did NOT appear as big as the email states. At that time, only when magnified 75 times in a telescope, did it look (in the telescope) like the size the Moon looks to the unaided eye. But that qualifier has long been lost from some versions of the chain letter. So don't be fooled!!

Have a good one!
Jamie

Windows Closed!

Hello, Bloggers!
We have some rain moving into the Miami Valley this evening! It's already affecting our Northern counties... and it will be moving through the Southern viewing area over the next several hours. It's LIGHT rain for the most part, but hey... we'll take what we can get, right?? (like we have a choice!)

That upper low we've been talking about for days is still moving northwest. It will eventually end up in Michigan on Thursday... so we will still have the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Finally, that low will "open up" on Friday, and then it will get pushed to the East by another wave/cold front. Ahead of the cold front we could see some stronger thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening. We'll keep you posted!!

S/S/S!

(does anyone remember that? we used to write that on notes in junior high...) :)
Jamie

Beautiful Sunset and Upper Low Rhyme

We have had some beautiful sunsets around these parts lately! Here is one of them:





This was captured Monday evening at Eastwood Lake by Charles Kaiser. One of our viewers thought it was so pretty, she asked us to post it on the website for all to see! We are glad to share this magnificent image with all of you! :)


The clouds definitely help make the sunset. And the clouds we've seen recently have been associated with that cut-off low we started talking about last week. Here it is at about 18,000 feet up in the atmosphere:




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You can really see the rotation around this low by looking at the satellite loop. Notice how the clouds rotate in a counter-clockwise direction: SATELLITE LOOP


Cut-off lows can be difficult to forecast, because they are just that... cut off from the main flow! Their movement is slow and erratic... and the precipitation is quite spotty. The old rhyme goes, "Cut-off Low... Weatherperson's Woe!" And at least for the next 2 days, we'll be dealing with scattered showers and thunderstorms, and comfortable temperatures... which is actually a NICE forecast for the end of July! :)


Hope you have a great night!
Jamie

A "WOW" Weekend!

Hello, everyone!

I hope you got to enjoy the great weather today. Good news... we have a few more days of it! :) I was out at the Clark County Fair this afternoon for the 5 & 5:30 newscasts... it was a lot of fun! I actually met a very nice group of boys, who reminded me that I visited their school several years back. I was shocked they remembered me... and even more shocked when one of them said, "The big H... stands for High Pressure!" Haha... they were too much!

If you are planning to head to the fair or elsewhere this weekend... the weather will be hard to beat. Low humiditiy, sunny skies, and highs in the 70s on Saturday, and near 80 on Sunday. So what are you all doing, any fun plans?

After the weekend, the forecast gets tricky. We have been watching the models flip-flop this week, and the latest runs are back to this retrograding Low pressure area coming back over the Ohio Valley. You can see in the series of maps below, how it is actually forecast to move from EAST to WEST:



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What does that mean for us? Well, probably some more clouds working in as the week goes on, and even the chance of some showers/thunderstorms by Tuesday. It also means the cooler temperatures will hang around for awhile longer. We'll keep you posted on this developing situation as we go into next week. For now, ENJOY the nice weekend!!



Jamie

Steamy Mid-Week!

Sorry the blog has been so quiet lately... I was on vacation in Florida the past several days! It was nice to get away... got to hang out with some dear old friends and get some much needed R&R. It is the last trip for a looooong time for me! :)

It is good to be back, though... and we have an active weather pattern to attend to! Here is a look at our flow at 500mb (about 18,000 feet up):


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You can see we're in a northwest flow aloft... and over the next 48 hours, any disturbance that gets caught up in that flow will come down over the Miami Valley. So we do have the chance of periods of thunderstorms on Wednesday. In addition, on Thursday, a cold front will sweep through keeping us with the chance of showers/thunderstorms. At any point over the next two days, any thunderstorm does have the potential to reach severe limits. Damaging winds and hail will be the main threats! It will also be quite steamy... warm (almost hot) and humid.

After the front comes through, though, the weather will improve for Friday and the weekend! Less humid... and much cooler!!


Have a good one!

Jamie

Is This July or September?

Clear skies, light winds and low humidities resulted in readings into the 50s this morning. The overnight low at DAY dropped to 54 and some of our Weatherbug sites hit the low 50s. Another superb afternoon is on the way with a continuation of the low humidity. Another cool front will move in tonight with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

The weekend should start off nice with lows in the 50s again Saturday morning. Got any plans? If not, join us for a 55 mile bike ride at 9 am starting from Young's Jersey Dairy in Yellow Springs. This will be our final training ride before the big Charity Bike Ride next weekend the 21st and 22nd of July. There's still time to sign up to raise money for Leukemia/Lymphoma, Alzheimer's, United Rehab. Service and the Wellness Connection of the Miami Valley.

Click on the link for more info.... http://www.youngsdairy.com/mc100.htm

Comfy!

Gotta love the nice comfortable weather we've had today! The humidity came waaaay down behind our cold front, and it just feels refreshing outside! :) I hope you all get to enjoy it!

Tomorrow night (THURS), a secondary cold front will come through the Miami Valley... bringing some scattered showers and thunderstorms... and even COOLER air for Friday! Expect highs Friday afternoon in the 70s.

As we head deeper into the summer... you'll notice that the tropics have been extremely quiet! So far this year we have had two named storms. Subtropical Storm Andrea (which came early... in May), and Tropical Storm Barry (at the beginning of June). The early active start to the season had us a little concerned... but things have settled in to a nice quiet pattern. HOWEVER... a quiet June/July doesn't necessarily mean the rest of the season will follow suit!

If you recall, NOAA predicted an above-normal hurricane season for this year. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, with peak activity occurring August through October. Sooooo, there are still 141 days for things to get their act together! But it sure looks pretty quiet out there NOW... here is a look at the satellite imagery, valid Wednesday afternoon:

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The NOAA Climate Prediction Center will issue an updated seasonal forecast in August just prior to the historical peak of the season... so we'll see what happens...

Enjoy our nice comfortable weather!
Jamie

Hot & Humid Continues

I hope you all enjoyed the weekend! Mine was pretty good. We didn't to anything too exciting... but we did go see Transformers, which was great! Have any of you seen it? We saw it at the drive-in, which made it even cooler. :) Oh, my husband put the crib together yesterday! It is really weird to see a crib in our house, but we have plenty of time to get used to it right? LOL...

Anyway, we have one more day to deal with the hot and humid weather across the Miami Valley! Then a cold front will sweep through and bring some relief to the area.

On Tuesday, still ahead of the front... expect highs in the upper 80s to near 90 in some spots... and continued humid conditions. There could be a few scattered showers or thunderstorms around during the afternoon hours, but not everyone will see rain. If you do see some rain Tuesday, it will definitely help cool your temperatures. But it will make the mugginess worse!

Then on Wednesday, a cold front will come through, bringing a more organized chance of rain. The timing isn't the best (morning/early afternoon)... but we do have a good shot of some showers and thunderstorms. Here is a look at the NAM's prediction of that front coming through:

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Behind this front, cooler, less-humid air will work into the Miami Valley for Wed night and Thursday.

Have a good one!

Jamie

Hot Weekend Ahead!

Well we had a pretty nice summer's day today... lots of sunshine between cumulus clouds, and a high in the mid-80s. Not bad! But the HOT air is out there! Oh yes it is... it's lurking in the Northwest! Montana, Idaho, South Dakota... these states all had high temperatures in the triple-digits today:


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I used to live in Montana, and, yes... "it's a dry heat"... but it's still HOT!! :)

Some of this heat will build towards the Miami Valley this weekend! We won't get into the 100s, but we should easily climb into the lower 90s. Expect highs in the upper 80s on Saturday... and lower 90s for Sunday and Monday. The Regional Air Pollution Control Agency has already issued an AIR POLLUTION ADVISORY DAY for both Sunday and Monday. Not only will it be hot and sunny, but the humidity will come up as well. This will make it feel even HOTTER! Our heat index values look like they could be as high as 95 to 100 degrees.

When the heat index reaches between 90°- 105°... SUNSTROKE, HEAT CRAMPS AND HEAT EXHAUSTION are possible with prolonged exporsure and/or high physical activity. So be careful out there! Stay indoors if you can... but if you must be outside, find some shade! Drink plenty of non-alcoholic drinks, and take it easy.

So did you hear about our new newscast? We will be doing a 10pm newscast on Dayton's CW channel, starting in mid-August! So if 11pm is too late for you to stay up and watch the news... now you can see us an hour early! We hope you will tune in... we are very excited about this new opportunity!

I hope you all enjoy the weekend!
Jamie

4th Update

Wow... what an afternoon! We had the heavy rain to the North... and some places in the southern viewing area saw NOTHING! Another hit-and-miss event for us...

Anyway, the latest as of 6pm....
There has YET to be a severe thunderstorm in the area. Most have stayed just below severe limits... and now there's just a few lingering showers out there. We'll likely be "quiet" for a good chunk of the evening... but the potential for rain is still there as the night goes on. If showers start moving back in... I could see a few communities lighting off their fireworks a bit early, to beat the rain! Stay tuned to Live Doppler 2X, and head out to the festivities early, if you're going!

Jamie

Happy 4th!!

Greetings, Bloggers!
I wanted to update you on the rain situation. Currently, at 2:30pm, there is an ongoing line of thunderstorms across Darke, Miami, Champaign and Clark Counties. It has been moving veeery slowly, basically "training" over the same area. Some places have picked up one to two inches of rain already! Our weather checker in Covington (northern Miami County) has 2" in his rain guage this afternoon. We also had reports of some wind damage near Bradford (also in Miami County). Reports of tree limbs down and into a house... and another report of damage to a mobile home.

We are under a TORNADO WATCH until 9pm. But so far, there have been no thunderstorms strong enough to demand a warning. The main threats have been heavy rain and lightning. If any of these thunderstorms does intensify, we would have to worry about damaging winds and hail.

The potential for scattered showers/t-storms will continue through the evening and into the overnight. So the fireworks displays will still be dodging the raindrops. The best thing to do, is check LIVE DOPPLER 2X before you head out... to see where any thunderstorms are closer to your event. Right now, we are having some problems with the *intensity* of the storms on our website, but you will still be able to see where the rain is!

Will try to update again later this evening!
Jamie

4th of July Forecast & Baby J Update

I know everyone wants to know about the 4th of July forecast... and what it could mean for local fireworks displays! Well, we DO need the rain... but it IS bad timing... coming in when many of us have outdoor plans...

A cold front will drop down into the Miami Valley Wedensday afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop in the Northern counties first... maybe 3 or 4pm. Then they will spread Southward as the afternoon works into evening. Not only will we be dealing with the chance of rain... but some of the storms could be severe! You can see the SPC has placed us in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms:


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The main threats will be damaging winds and some hail. This will likely end up being a "Nowcasting" type situation for us tomorrow evening. Some places could get in the fireworks. Others will probably have to pospone the displays. So tune in tomorrow evening between 5 and 6:30pm, and we will try to give you a better feel for where the rain will be... and who will be affected. You can also see LIVE DOPPLER 2X anytime by clicking on the link at the top left-hand side of this blog page!

So in Baby J news... we went in for our 22 week ultrasound today, and I have some amazing pictures to share with you! Here are a few of the images we saw:


This is a profile of the baby... the head is on the left... with the body on the right. Can you see the little nose? :)



This is an up-close shot of the face. You can see eyes, nose and a mouth. Also notice a tiny hand in the upper-right hand side!



And this is one of my favorites. This is a perfect little foot! How cute is that?!

We could also see the brain very clearly, and the 4 chambers of the heart really stood out, too. We checked the spine, the ribs, the stomach, and our tech made many measurements! My husband and I do not want to know what we are having... so I thought for sure there would be a moment when the tech would say, "Ok, turn away!" but she never did! In the end, I asked her... "Were you able to see what it is?" And she said YES! I am glad I don't know what I am looking for... bcs my husband and I are still clueless. :) I have always thought it was a girl (so does Marsha B)... but we won't know for sure until November!

I hope you enjoyed the pictures... have a good evening!
Jamie

Back in the saddle again!!

Hi everyone!
I'm back after 2 weeks away from the weather but not really. I end up checking the computer every day looking at the recent models but at least it was at my leisure on vacation! Well we finally got some much needed rain over the past 2 weeks. Doppler radar rainfall estimates across Eastern Indiana & Western Ohio over the past 14 days shows 1-3 inch totals. Our focus is now on the next system coming in on Wednesday the 4th. Right now it looks like dry weather most of the day on the 4th with increasing chances for thunderstorms 4pm-Midnight across the areas north of I-70.... and 6PM- Midnight elsewhere. This will create havoc with the 4th of July fireworks Wednesday evening. We will continue to monitor the model trends & update this forecast for the next two days. Hope everyone has been enjoying this great weather we've had for the past few days & we hope you have a great 4th of July.

Carl