Pattern Change.... R U ready for it??

For the last few weeks we've seen a very active Sub-Tropical Jet (red line). Thats been breeding storm system after storm system... but luckily for us we've been mostly on the warmer side of things keeping us in the rain. All we needed was a hick-up from the northern branch to get some cooler temperatures in here and we could have seen plenty of snow, but it looks as if before that happens our pattern is going to change.
And its going to change into the pattern below. East coast Trough, West Coast ridge. And for us that means Northwesterly Flow and very cold temperatures. This pattern is excellent at giving us small doses of snow from Alberta Clippers but is mostly known for its bitter cold temperatures. If you dont like the bitter cold (which will be here for the start of the New Year) I do have some good news... Its a temporary set up... and it looks as if things are going to revert back in another 2 weeks.

Merry Christmas!!

Hope you all enjoyed the day...
Temperatures in the 40's, Plenty of Sun, not bad at all for Christmas!

So how was your Christmas?
While I have no family in the Miami Valley, David and Gail where kind enough to be my adopted family for the day, it was great to hang around with them. Wonderful food (roast pork, mashed potatoes, and gravy too!) and just a nice family atmosphere.....even went outside and threw a football around for a little while.

Weather wise things will be quiet here for the next few days... but Friday and New Years Eve look like they'll be a little more active. We'll blog about it a little later this week.
-Erik

Active Pattern... but where do we stand

For the past month or so we have seen storm after storm track right over the Miami Valley, often times giving us a mix for everything from sleet to rain and even some periods of snow. While things still look active it seems as if the track of these storms has pushed a little further west. The map below is from the 18Z GFS run and shows this weekends upcoming system.

In order to see heavy snow in the Miami Valley you need a strong subtropical jet(in blue) bringing moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico and an active Northern Jet bringing in a well timed shot of cold air. While things look ripe for strong lows and big snows for the plains... there just isn't enough cold air to give us a sizable snowstorm. With the southern branch of the jet to our west most of our precip will be in the form of rain on this next system. After the low passes we will see snow showers and perhaps some light accumulations but nothing significant.
However if the pattern remains this active... it is only a matter of time until the jets phase together to our east giving us our shot at some heavy snow.

Pictures from the weekend... Thanks for all the pictures

First picture is from Jeff in Beavercreek, OH he recorded 2-3 inches of snow by 6pm Sunday
The second picture is from Donna and Jeff in Huber Heights. They sent in this picture of their son Xan mowing the back yard.
The Third and Fourth pictures come from Su Berry... quite the photographer!!

Sunday Morning Wind Gusts

As the Cold air finally moved through the Miami Valley Sunday morning, many areas saw some very gusty winds!
On our Weatherbug network we had a gust over 50mph!

Urbana Junior High School - 51 mph gust
Springfield News-Sun - 44mph gust
Greeneview HS in Jamestown - 40 mph gust
Ohio Hi-Point Career Center, Bellefontaine - 38 mph gust

Weather Checker Bill in Xenia recorded a 45 mph gust at 6am

How windy were things are your place? We'd love to hear

Weekend Storm Snowfall Totals

Please excuse the delay. With the impending winter storm on our hands and a complicated forecast we have had our hands full the last couple of days.

The storm piled up snow early on Saturday morning blanketing most of the area with 2-4 inches. Then as the low moved north and strengthened it pulled in enough warm air to change the entire Miami Valley over to freezing rain and rain.
Here are some totals (before the rain and freezing rain!) courtesy of our weather checkers! Thanks!!!


Saturday's Totals
Jim in Beavercreek - 4"
Hope in Bellbrook - 3"
Jason in Brookville - 5"
Kevin Keefer in Centerville - 3"
Mike in Covington - 3"
Maynard in Degraff - 3"
John in Eaton - 3.5"
Dorothy in Fairborn - 2"
Lowell in Greenville - 4"
Barbara in Kettering - 2"
Vicki in New Carlisle 3.25"
Bob in Piqua - 3"
Don in Sidney - 3"
John in Tipp City - 4"
Barb in Union - 3.5"
Betty in Versailles - 3"
Bud in Wapakoneta - 3"















This is a snapshot from the 00z model run for Sunday morning. The GFS & the NAM where putting .5 (snow/rain) precipitation north of Dayton around the Sidney area for late Saturday night. With a strengthening low pressure and tight pressure gradient.. high wind was the easiest part of the forecast. The next forecast parameter had to do with the change over... the faster the change over... the more snow. Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on your outlook) the change over didn't occur until 6AM at the Dayton International, later for places further east. Cutting back the snowfall totals on Sunday morning. Most areas did see about 1-2 inches (very hard to measure because of all the wind). And in northern portions of the Valley (Logan, Shelby, & Mercer) 2-3 was a more common number.

Just Enough Time to Catch Your Breath

Well...the snow totals are in from our latest storm and 3 to 4 inches seemed to be the most common amounts. A few spots hit 5 inches. Bonnie Lotter in Springboro had a 5 inch amount along with Bill Telzerow in Greene Co. I measured 4 inches here at our studio in Moraine.

Skies cleared overnight and with fresh snow cover, heat flew out of the atmosphere ( that long-wave radiation/emissivity thing regardless of increased CO2 concentrations) and temperatures dropped like a rock. Maynard Evans in DeGraff called in with -1° and John Kingham in Tipp had +1° for overnight lows. DAY slipped to 8° and Wilmington was down to 3° last I checked.

Well, enjoy the sun today even though we won't get a lot of warming with all those tiny mirrors on the ground in the form of snow cover. More snow is on the way tonight, so stay tuned to the latest forecasts...another winter weather advisory maybe issued later today.

BD

Jamie came into the studio this afternoon!

She stopped by this Tuesday afternoon bringing baby Claire. What a cute kid! It was so nice to see her again. You should have seen everyone at the station going crazy to see them both! Carl, was hilarious going right into Grandpa mode. Infact the kid couldn't take his eyes off him. Although he says Claire was just looking at his glasses.

If you want to see Jamie you'll have to hurry up and go to the weather page and click on the video forecast... She is on there saying hi!
-Erik

Are you ready for the first measureable snow??

The models are in good agreement on the position of the system, now we just have to watch the strength/moisture associated with it.

The system headed this way Tuesday night into Wednesday is called an Alberta Clipper. Clippers form on the lee slopes of the Canadian Rockies in the Alberta Province of Canada. Generally they don't have access to much moisture and tend to be on the weak side. You take that combination and throw in the fact that they race across the county and you "usually" get some rather meager snowfall totals. But every once in a while these system can surprise you. When I was out in South Dakota a clipper delivered just over 7 inches, so these things really have to be watched closely. Without many weather observation points in Canada its difficult to hone in on the strength of the low until it moves into the states. Since they move so quickly... that’s usually less then a day away from impacting the Miami Valley.

Right now this particular system looks as if it will put down 1-3 inches of snow by Wednesday morning with perhaps another inch during the day.

Personally... I love snow, especially this time of year! (Carl just read this and said bah humbug you can come shovel my drive!)

Have a good one and stay tuned for the latest!
-Erik

Winds and Rainfall Totals from the Dec 2nd

If you didn't have to pick up your lawn furniture or trash cans off of your neighbors lawn consider yourself lucky! (or well prepared)
The cold front brought everything from heavy rain, thunderstorms, gusty winds and snow to the Miami Valley. Here are some of the wind gusts and rainfall totals.

The highest wind gusts occurred between 9 & 10pm on Sunday.
Sidney - 50mph
Jamestown - 46mph
Kettering - 46 mph
Vandalia - 43 mph
Dayton International Airport - 44 mph

Rainfall Totals from Weathercheckers (Thanks!)
Jim in Beavercreek- 1.4"
Scott in Bradford- .8"
John in Eaton- .97"
Joshua in Enon- .97"
Dorothy in Fairborn- .52"
Lowell Greenville- .91"
Barbara in Kettering- 1.1"
Jim in Middletown- 1.25"
Bud in Wapakoneta- .9"
Greg in Yellow Springs- .75"

More Rainfall Totals from Weatherbug
Piqua 1.2"
Springfield 1.15"
New Madison - 1.01"
Springboro .84"
Bellefontaine .91"
Oakwood .95"
Jamestown .69"