Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Weather Hype & Meteorology

First off, let me start by agreeing with many of the posters. The Media does over hype these events. A Meteorologist comes out with snowfall forecasts with certain constraints attached to it. As you pass that message along a few editors/producers change a couple words, add some adjectives, leave out some “coulds” / “ifs”... and all of a sudden you have a nice attention grabbing head line… which can be misleading and sometimes even a false.
Not to pick on the Dayton Daily News (all media does this)… but they had an excellent example on Tuesday morning February 26th. The front page headline had in bold black type "Up to 7 inches of snow coming." While the title wasn’t false (considering their forecast)… it was very misleading. Even after reading the article it seems like we are all going to get 5-7 inches total. The article doesn’t say who will see that amount or when the majority of it is due. If you happen to pick up the paper at 5pm Tuesday afternoon, you may even think the majority of the snow is coming that night. I’m positive that if that article was presented to a meteorologist before it was printed… he would not have allowed his name to go in the paper.
Bringing the microscope over to Channel 2, we nailed many parts of the forecast. The forecast timing of this system was dead on, from the start time of the rain, to the change over to ice and snow, even the timing of the heaviest snow was right on. The temperature forecast was also correct as well as the track of the system. As for snow… and as you can tell, it is very challenging to forecast and often times has to be updated during the event. After initially forecasting 2-4 inches of snow for the Dayton area Monday night, (well below that of our rivals) Brian Davis during the morning show assessed the situation pulling back forecast totals to 1-2 inches. We even had the amount of snow correct…. Dayton and areas around did see an inch to an inch and a half of snow. But it didn’t stick.
Forecasting snowfall totals is like building a house of cards where each card is a certain assumption; if one of those assumptions is false… the amount of snow you see on your front lawn will vary from the forecast amount. Today’s bad card was insolation. The late February sunshine (even through the clouds) was enough to melt the snow on most surfaces. Leading to wet rather then white conditions across the majority of the area.
Personally I would also like you to know that meteorology is not only a job for us at the station but also part of our life. Jamie, Carl, and Brian, are some of the most dedicated meteorologists I have ever known. They are always looking back at their forecasts, taking in new information, and learning the latest techniques to make sure that you continue to get the best forecasts available.

Monday, February 25, 2008

The Winter That Won't End

Would you believe we are tracking yet another winter storm?? Yes, it's true! We have a WINTER STORM WARNING in effect for much of the area... with a WINTER STORM WATCH out for Greene, Butler, Warren and Clinton Counties.

Once again, the storm will approach from the Southwest... and once again, we are in that "transition zone" between rain and snow. We are usually excited to forecast such storms, but this winter we are getting a little tired of it! ;)

We are expecting this one to start as rain for everyone tonight between 9 and 11pm or so. Then as we head into the EARLY morning hours, we'll see a switch-over to snow in the NORTH. The SOUTHERN counties should see the switch-over to snow by MID-morning.

Totals... 3 to 5" North... with 2 to 4" in the South... by Tuesday evening. We could see additional light snow through Wednesday. So get ready once again!

Here are a few more pictures from viewers like you! :) As always, we thank you for sharing... you can always send them to weather@wdtn.com




"Beautiful Barn!"... from Jean Davidson of Greenville.




"Frozen Falls"... from Jenny Petroski, taken at Charelston Falls.




"Love Dog"... from Wallace Campbell of Cesarscreek Township. (Note the heart marking on the side of the dog!)




"Winter Scene"... from Jim and Teresa Clark of Cedarville.

You can update us on your weather conditions or snowfall totals by commenting below, or sending the information to the email address above. We may use your information or picture on the air!

Thanks again!
Jamie

Friday, February 22, 2008

Winding Down

Our winter storm is winding down across the area... so we can expect light wintery precipitation to gradually come to an end as we head into the nighttime hours. We still have a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY in effect for most of the Valley, with a FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY for Butler, Warren and Clinton counties... all until midnight. Additional snow/ice accumulations will be light... but we could see up to an inch of snow across the Northern Valley, and under and inch for the South.


Did anyone else have to scrape the car off this morning? That was one of the more challenging cleanings I've had to do! I had about .10" of ice on my entire car... once I got a good chip into it, it was coming off in huge sheets... pretty cool. And those untreated walkways... sort of like an ice rink, no? Things will remain slick, as temperatures stay below freezing through Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon, with a little sunshine, we will climb into the mid-30s... and start to melt some of this wintery mess!


Although it is a *beautiful* wintery mess, as Bill Schmidt from Farmersville shows us:






You can really see the shiny glaze of ice on top of the snowfall. Here are some more pictures from around the area... you can always send them to weather@wdtn.com.




"Snow Accumulation"... from John Miller, West Milton






"Hanging Around"... from Jean Davidson, Greenville






"From the Inside"... from Susan Satterfield, West Carrollton







"Snow Lover"... from Mary Lucas, Bellefontaine Ohio




"Playing Around,"... Harley & Odie playing with their toys.


JJ

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Another Winter Storm

9:30pm UPDATE...
The main area of precipitation is coming to an end, just as the rain/snow line is working up to the Springboro area. It is currently running across Northern Butler, Warren and Clinton Counties. It looks like a big break in the precip, but overnight and into Friday we still have scattered light freezing rain in the forecast. Some of our northern counties may even stay cold enough for all snow Friday. The roads are snowcovered right now across much of the Miami Valley, and any additional freezing rain/drizzle will put a little crunch to the powder we have in place! Be careful!!
JJ

Here we go again... another storm is affecting the region tonight through Friday, and a WINTER STORM WARNING has been issued for Darke, Miami, Champaign, Preble, Montgomery, Clark, Greene, Butler, Warren and Clinton Counties... and Wayne County in Indiana. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is up for Mercer, Auglaize, Shelby and Logan Counties.

We are expecting snow to accumulate anywhere from 1 to 4 inches across the area as the evening wears on. Roads will become snow covered and slippery... and with a transition to sleet/freezing rain as we head through the late evening towards midnight. Then the roads will become icy!

It seems we are always riding that fine line between snow/sleet and freezing rain right through the Miami Valley... and it is the case again with this storm. If the snow does not transition over to freezing rain in Dayton by 9 or 10pm, we will have to adjust our snowfall totals! Stay tuned... and stay safe on the roads!

Jamie

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

More Viewer Pics

Send your photos to weather@wdtn.com!



"Partial Lunar Eclipse"... from Rex Kindell



"Lunar Eclipse"... from Holly Hogsett, New Carlisle.


"Wishing for Warmer Weather"... from David Allspaw, Sidney




"Winter Scene"... from Jean Davidson, Greenville




"Spruced Up"... from Michael McDaniel, New Carlisle



"Exploring Snow"... Noah is enjoying the winter wonderland! Sent in by Amanda Becker




"Sharing the Fun" with his dog, Layla!




"On the Hunt"... from Peter Kleysteuber




"Cardinal Rules"... from Shirley Sebright, Springfield




"Snow Day" from Jim Deborde, Huber Heights




"Fun in the snow!" from Lisa G.




"Beauty shot outside Cedarville" from Gloria Grim




"Grant Park" Ken Sheppard, Centerville




"Fun with cookes!" (check out the buttons) from Ronald Lingus

I will post more snow pics this evening!
Thanks for sending them in!!
Jamie

Winter's Back




Wow!! What a neat little snowstorm. Normally, clippers produce a couple of inches of snow and then open the door for Arctic air to settle in. Today's system was a little more dynamic, and what was really interesting were the snow to liquid ratios. Most of the time here in Ohio, we see ratios of 10 inches of snow to 1 inch of rain. But today's system delivered numbers more like 15 to 20 to 1....maybe even a tad more in a few locations. So, we ended up with a band of 4" to 5.5" along and just south of I70 to about 10 miles north of I70. Check out some of the pictures from our loyal viewers....

Northwest of Springfield



Arcanum

More snow is in the forecast...we will probably have a winter storm watch issued by the end of the day so stay tuned later today and tomorrow.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Clipper Tonight!

A fast moving Clipper system will affect us late tonight and into Wednesday morning. This will bring some snow to the area. It will be light amounts of snow... but the timing is for the morning commute... so there could be travel problems/school delays. Be sure to tune in to 2 News Sunrise for the latest information... from 5 to 7am!

We are expecting an inch or two out of this system, with some locations south of Dayton getting closer to the three-inch mark. For this reason, there is a SNOW ADVISORY out for Butler, Warren and Clinton Counties through tomorrow morning.

So what is a Clipper? We talk about them all winter long, so let's have a quick lesson! The full name is "Alberta Clipper"... and it typically forms in the Canadian province of Alberta... hence the name! It's a fast-moving low pressure center... with low-end moisture. It is moisture-lacking because it's basically landlocked... far, far away from any big bodies of water. It moves southeast into the United States... and usually comes pretty close to the Dayton area. Even though there's not much moisture to work with, when it swings through, it can produce some heavier periods of snow... reducing visibilities... and droping 1 to 3 inches of snowfall in a quick timeframe.

On the NAM model below... notice how our Clipper will increase in moisture as it heads from Ohio to the Atlantic Ocean:



Click each image to enlarge
Have a good one!
Jamie

Sunday, February 17, 2008

Tornado Warnings & Other Wx here in the Valley

On Sunday afternoon Tornado warnings were issued for both Clark and Champagne Counties. Thankfully an actual tornado never touched down, but all the indications where there... strong rotation, strong updrafts all mixed with thunderstorms that where moving quickly at about 40-45 miles per hour to the North East.
We did have a couple of reports of some small hail though. Pea sized in downtown Daton and the same was reported in New Carlisle from our Weather Checker Vicki.

Peak wind gusts from our Wxbug Network & Weather Checkers
Eaton (from Jonathan) - 47
Jamestown - 45
Kettering - 42
Maria Stein -42
New Madison - 40
Richmond - 39
Sidney - 41
Springfield - 41
Wilmington - 30
Xenia (from Bill) - 42

Sunday's Rainfall Totals from Weatherbug & Weather Checkers
Bellefontaine .51
Brookville (Jason) .75
Cedarville (Dennis) .26
Eaton (Jonathan) .35
Dayton (Downtown) .32
Greenville (Lowell) .39
Jamestown .44
Kettering (Barbara) .3
Middletown (Jim) .2
New Carlisle (Vicki) .5
New Paris (David) .7
Piqua .48
Richmond(IN) .33
Saint Henry .61
Springboro .46
Vandalia .56
Winchester (IN) .35
Wapakoneta (Bud) 1.25

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Happy Valentine's Day!!

Do you remember the Blizzard across the Northern Miami Valley last year around this time? The storm actually hit on February 13th, 2007... but here is what it looked like in Greenville on Valentine's Day... check out those snowdrifts!!



Click to enlarge

Snowlovers this winter have had it a little rough... with us not really having a BIG snowfall. The last two winter storms have mainly been ice-storms, and those are no fun to play in! I will say, winter's not over yet... but the longer we go... the less-likely a big snowstorm will be for us. Sigh.

Anyway, after a few quiet days (thank goodness!)... we are tracking a cold front for FRIDAY! This front will come through in the morning, we'll see windy conditions, and perhaps some light snow showers. We won't see much in the way of accumulation... as the front is sort of moisture-starved by the time it gets to us. The farther north you go, the better the chance of snow... anything should be under an inch.

On Sunday, there is a bigger storm heading our way! It's another one of those Lows to our southwest moving in... BUT this time it is pulling in a LOT of warm air. So it's going to mainly be a rain event for us. There is a chance that *initally* we could see a little freezing rain Sunday morning, but then it would change to all rain as the day goes on. We could see some heavier rain as the storm moves through... below is the GFS rainfall forecast... a half-inch or more is possible:



Click to enlarge

I hope you all had a great Valentine's Day!
Jamie

Monday, February 11, 2008

Tuesdays Winter Storm

While we are beginning to see snow showers move in across parts of the Miami Valley, most areas will not see the heavy snows until about 5am... so don't be surprised if you wake up (especially if your an early riser) to only light accumulations. I-70 and South will see about 2-4 inches on the ground by 7am (closer to 3-6 in Cincinnati). North of I-70 about 1-3 by 7am with the lightest amounts up around Auglaize and Mercer Counties. The heaviest snows will move into the southern Miami Valley during the morning commute and will last until about10am. The snowfall map below has the snowfall totals for the area by Noon. Locations north of Wapak & Celina will be moisture starved with this system... only picking up a marginal 1-3 but as you head south moisture becomes more abundant. Sidney, Urbana, and Greenville will remain all snow picking up 2-4. Currently.....Dayton, Springfield, and Eaton look like they will remain mostly snow with a short period of sleet mixing in 6-8 inches total. Cincinnati has plenty of moisture... but it looks as though they'll be changing over to sleet and freezing rain during the morning commute holding down totals.
As this complicated storm continues to move into the valley we will continue to update the forecast.

If you have any comments, questions, pictures or totals that you would like to share please post them below. We would love to see them! If your a little shy you can also email them to weather@wdtn.com

Sunday, February 10, 2008

Weekend Wrap... and we could see significant snow/ice Monday night

As the cold front moved through Saturday night it didn't have to much moisture to work with. It did however have a few light rain showers mixing at times with some wet snow flakes. We even had a few lightning strikes pop up in Darke, Auglaize and Logan on Live Doppler 2x! While many of us had winds around 30-40 mph during the actual frontal passage here are a few of the higher gusts.
Ohio Hi-Point Career Center, Bellefontaine, Wind Gust 45.60 10:32:00 PM
Urbana JHS, Urbana, Wind Gust 49.98 11:27:00 PM
The winds below just occured between 8am -Noon Sunday morning as the heart of the arctic air moved in.
Marion Local ES, Maria Stein, Wind Gust 46.47 8:07:00 AM
St. Christopher School, Vandalia, Wind Gust 47.13 8:27:00 AM
Springfield News-Sun, Springfield, Wind Gust 46.26 8:51:00 AM

Greenon HS, Springfield, Wind Gust 46.69 9:18:00 AM
Greeneview HS, Jamestown, Wind Gust 48.45 9:13:00 AM
O.R. Edgington ES, Englewood, Wind Gust 45.16 9:59:00 AM
Springfield News-Sun, Springfield, Wind Gust 46.69 11:53:00 AM

Monday night into Tuesday could see significant snows / ice
The entire Miami Valley is already under a Winter Storm watch... why? Well it looks as though Monday night into Tuesday could be a little on the rough side. As usual it all depends on the track of the system. The NAM (posted below) is the weaker of the two solutions keeping the cold air in place and also keeping most of our precipitation as snow. Generally around 1-3 inches. The GFS however brings in a much stronger system... starting us off as snow Monday night putting about 2-4 inches of snow on the ground before mixing in some freezing rain and sleet for the southern half of the valley and keeping things as snow up around Auglaize, Mercer, and Darke counties. Usually about 24 hours before a storm we have a pretty good idea about what is going to happen. With this one the track, the freezing line, and the intensity are all still up in the air. We'll have to wait for Monday to nail down numbers... but either way it looks like Tuesday mornings commute is going to be a messy one!










Friday, February 8, 2008

Here Comes the Cold Again...

Another Arctic Cold Front will be dropping into the Miami Valley as we head through the weekend. Go figure, right?!


We actually have a weak front coming through tonight (Friday)... this one will bring the chance of some light rain showers and windy conditions. But there's not really any COLD air behind it... we'll be in the 40s again for Saturday afternoon.


On Saturday night, however... things change!! The Arctic front drops in and we will see a sharp drop in temperatures through early Sunday morning. Wind chill values will be below zero again, and we will spend most of Sunday afternoon in the teens. Below is a look at where the Arctic front is NOW, and as it is forecast to come through Saturday night:

Click to enlarge
Notice the aqua shading behind the front... that is windspeed in knots. It is going to get quite windy after the frong comes through... so hold onto your hats!
Happy Birthday to my husband!! :)
Jamie

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Become a Storm Spotter!

Hello, Bloggers!

As one of you put it... what a wild couple of days! Last night, we had the tornado watch for the southern counties... and had a few severe thunderstorm warnings issued after midnight. We have lots of wind damage reports across the area... One of our Eaton Weathercheckers sent us this picture of wind damage at his place:



Photo: Jonathan Marker

Not only is the tree uprooted, but I don't really think he usually has a pond in his backyard! And we were just the tip of the iceburg! We were on the very Northern edge of this storm... take a look at the damage reports extending to the southwest:



Click to enlarge

The red dots are the tornadoes. Interesting note... you can actually SEE the track of the supercell thunderstorms... tracking some of those tornado reports from southwest to northeast! These powerful tornadoes did much damage... as well as took lives. The latest reports state around 50 people died in the storms, but that number has been rising all day as more victims are found. All in all, yesterday will go down in the record books as the 2nd deadliest tornado outbreak in February since 1957! Be sure to tune in this evening... Erik will be doing a storm-recap on this historical event.

Speaking of severe weather... are you interested in becoming a Storm Spotter? Well just your luck, the National Weather Service meteorologists are beginning their training this week! You could attend one of their great meetings and learn the ropes. Last year, we had a few bloggers come out to the Skywarn meeting in Montgomery County... it would be great to see more of you this year! We will all be at that meeting again. Here is a list of local meetings:

GREEN CO.... FEB. 7th... 6:30pm
541 Ledbetter Rd. (Xenia).... in the media room.
Call 937-562-5130 for more info

WARREN CO... FEB 13th... 6:30pm
Wayne Township Building near Waynesville

CLINTON CO... FEB 20th... 7:00pm
Call 937-382-6673 for more info

BUTLER CO... MARCH 4th... 7:00pm
Butler Tech Public Safety Education Center
5140 Princeton Glendale Rd. (Hamilton)

SHELBY CO... MARCH 7th... 5:30pm
Honda Auditorium
Call 937-492-5635 for more info

MONTGOMERY CO... MARCH 8th... 9:00am
Skywarn's Severe Weather Spotter Training
Barry Women's Pavillion at MVH

MIAMI CO... MARCH 18th... 6:30pm
Miami Communications Center
Call 937-332-8560 for more info

MERCER CO... MARCH 19th... 7:00pm
Central Service Building (Celina)
Call 419-586-6468 for more info

LOGAN CO... MARCH 25th... 6:30pm
Ohio Hi Point Career Center (Bellefontaine)
Call 937-593-5743 for more info

DARKE CO... MARCH 26th... 7:00pm
Nature Center (Greenville)
Call 937-548-1444 for more info

CLARK CO... MARCH 28TH... 7:00pm
County Extension Office, 4400 Gateway Blvd. (Springfield)
Call 937-849-6322 for more info

Have a great evening!
Jamie

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Soggy Day!

It's a pretty big rain event for the Miami Valley! We're still under a FLOOD WATCH until Wednesday morning... and some of our northern counties (Mercer, Auglaize, Shelby and Miami) are under FLOOD WARNINGS. In Mercer and Auglaize Counties... high water was common on roadways after 2 to 4 inches of rain fell over night. Shelby and Miami Counties have a flood warning for the Great Miami River... where minor flooding is forecast in the usual places: the East side of Sidney and in Port Jefferson... Piqua and Troy.

We could easily see another inch or two of rain overnight into early Wednesday morning in some places... so we're not done just yet! Here is a look at some of the totals so far:

Beavercreek: 1.6"
Cedarville: 1.08"
Covington: .67"
Eaton: .7"
Greenville: .55"
Kettering: 1.5"
Middletown: 1.25"
New Carlisle: 1.2"
New Paris: 1"
Piqua: .5"
Sidney: .5"
Springboro: 1.2"
Tipp City: .75"
Xenia: 1.25"
Yellow Springs: 1"

We are also still watching the potential for severe weather. Right now, we are thinking it would happen after midnight, if everything comes together. Wind damage will be the main threat... we will keep you posted with an update at 10pm on the CW... and at 11pm on Channel 2.

And to top it all off... fog may be an issue, as well!

Anyway... send your rainfall totals/damage reports to weather@wdtn.com, or just leave us a comment below!

Thanks,
Jamie

Monday, February 4, 2008

Two Tuesdays

We're heading into our second in a series of crazy-weather Tuesdays! If you remember last week, a very strong cold front moved through the Miami Valley... bringing very strong winds and severe thunderstorms. Well... it's going to happen again!

This time around, we also have the potential for some very heavy rain. We are thinking up to THREE INCHES of rain could fall in some spots... so localized flooding could be a problem. Both the NAM and GFS models are looking pretty close on rainfall:


Click to enlarge NAM model


Click to enlarge GFS model

The National Weather Service has also issued a FLOOD WATCH for the entire viewing area beginning early Tuesday morning thorugh Wednesday.

Not only will we have to deal with the flooding potential... but once again, severe weather is a threat. We are expecting strong thunderstorms and wind damage is possible. We will keep you posted on any warnings, of course! The best time for severe weather will be between 4pm and 1am... we will continue to refine that time-frame as we go through the day on Tuesday, so stay tuned!

Do you believe we made it to 53 degrees today?! On February 4th? That is unseasonably warm for this time of year... our average high is 35 degrees! It's actaully a far cry from our record high of 68, set back in 1890. BUT on Tuesday... we could come close to a new record high! The current record is 65-degrees... and we should be into the 60s!! :)

I would like to thank the Boonshoft Museum of Discovery for having me out to introduce Ivy on Groundhog's Day this past weekend! It was a great time... the kids absolutely LOVED it. I can't wait to take Claire someday...

"See" you tomorrow!
Jamie

Friday, February 1, 2008

Morning Update

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is still in effect for our northern counties until 6pm:

Darke
Miami

Shelby
Champaign
Logan
Mercer
Auglaize

... but Montgomery, Greene, Clark, Preble... Butler, Warren and Clinton counties have been taken OUT of the warning, and are no longer under the threat of severe winter weather. However, we will still see some snow wrap around the backside of the storm as it moves away this afternoon.

As I mentioned last night, the main precipitation show didn't start until after 11pm... so that meant no snow for most of us. The ice was still a problem... although not as big a problem as it could have been in Dayton. Thankfully, temperatures at the surface came up above freezing this morning to switch things over to RAIN... and it really helped the situation!

Now the weekend is near!! I am ready... it has been a draining weather week for me! ;)
Jamie