Feast or Famine

Finally we have seen some decent rain totals over the past couple of days. Our weathercheckers tonight are reporting over 1 inch in some locales. As a matter of fact, Beavercreek's Jim Robbins had 1 inch of rain in 15 minutes and this has boosted his 3 day total to 2.5". This same storm moved through south Dayton and north Kettering between 6 and 7 and here is how it looked at Patterson and Wilmington (courtesy of Penny)....

Barbara Richards in Kettering also had over 1 inch of rain this evening. However, Sidney and New Paris only picked up .1" of rain. Such is the nature of summer precipitation.

Hope you managed to get some rain because dry weather will return for the weekend and early next week. See you at the CityFolk Festival.

Finally! A Decent Chance for RAIN!!

So, are we really going to see the rain this time?? The last few chances we've had.... the fronts just came though with a few clouds... some gusty winds... and we hardly saw any rain!

This time, I think things will be different... for some of us

The first big difference between this front and the others is that this system has plenty of moisture. Dew points for the past few days have been in the mid to upper 60's so we'll have plenty of moisture available for this front to work with.

The next big factor is duration. The last few cold fronts came through pretty quick from the west to east. Thursdays system will move down almost directly from the north and at a slower pace meaning the thunderstorms we do see will hang around longer giving us a good chance for that rain.

The only negative item I see with this system is with timing... and that's a biggy. In order to get the most bang for your buck you generally want to have the front move through during the late afternoon and early evening. That's when we generally have the warmest temperatures and when thunderstorms are at their peak intensity... usually also putting down the most rain. Thursdays cold front will start moving through Mercer, Logan, & Auglaize by about 11am... This is where the thunderstorms will be the most scattered... so about .25" of rain seems like a reasonable number for those northern counties. As the front heads south, the storms should intensify bringing Montgomery, Green, and Preble Counties the best chance for higher amounts. .5"-1" very possible.

While some models are being quite optimistic (like the estimate to the left).....

I think they are a little too generous.

Tough Forecast

A cold front is dropping into the area tonight... and will stall out just south of us for Friday and Saturday. With a front nearby, there is a chance for rain! It all starts tonight... below you will see the satellite/radar composite valid just before 9pm:




Click to enlarge


Notice the front coming into the Dayton area. Also notice a pretty good MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) coming through Iowa into Illinois. An MCS is basically a complex of thunderstorms that lasts several hours or more (a squall line is a type of MCS). Anyway, that MCS is drifing in our direction... and IF it holds together, we could see some showers and thunderstorms by Friday morning!


Our front will hang out near the Ohio River... and that will keep us with a chance of some thunderstorms (spotty) for Friday afternoon. But we do have to keep looking to the northwest for these MCS's over the next few days... as there could be more than one! I think the best chance of rain will be in the southwestern portion of the viewing area. Please let us know if you get any rain... and how much you get!


Thanks, and enjoy your day!
Jamie

Weather + Comedy = Hilarious!!!

With all of the serious drought talk the last few weeks, I thought I'd try lighten things up a little with some humor. If any of you are Comedy Central fans like me, I'm sure you've heard of the Daily Show with John Stewart. Last week he cracked a few jokes towards the Meteorology World... and when I watched it, I couldn't stop laughing!!

Here's the link! Let us know what you think
P.S. The tornado promotion you see is real, and being used on the air!
And a little background info... Gary England is pretty much a legend to those living in Oklahoma City.

http://www.comedycentral.com/motherload/player.jhtml?ml_video=88458&ml_collection=&ml_gateway=&ml_gateway_id=&ml_comedian=&ml_runtime=&ml_context=show&ml_origin_url=%2Fshows%2Fthe_daily_show%2Fvideos%2Fjon_stewart%2Findex.jhtml%3FplayVideo%3D88458&ml_playlist=&lnk=&is_large=true

No Drought Buster but Finally Some Rain

The cool front that moved through yesterday setting off showers and thunderstorms brought us some much needed rain. I swear my grass was already turning greener yesterday evening. There was a wide spread in rain totals with some areas barely getting enough to settle the dust. Tom in Brookville only had .04" but Bill in Fountain City, IN reported .7". I had .4" in Centerville and there were numerous reports in the .4" to .5" range.

Today will be gorgeous. Summer arrives tomorrow at 2:06 PM so enjoy the longest solar day of the year on Thursday with warmer afternoon temperatures. There is a slight chance of rain late tomorrow but rain chances should really jump again for Friday and Saturday.

3 Degrees Shy!

We were within THREE degrees of setting a record high temperature today! We officially climbed to 95 degrees at Dayton International Airport... the record high is 98, which was set back in 1994. So, yea, it's HOT! ;)

It's also DRY. We continue to add on to our rainfall deficit each day we get nothing! A few spotty showers/t-storms helped some places out a LITTLE on Sunday, but we really need more than that. We are now -2.06" in the hole for the month of June...

A cold front is on the way, though. That will bring us a pretty good shot at some rain (again, it won't be ENOUGH rain for most of us)... but it is something. We will likely see some spotty showers/t-storms move in late tonight and towards sunrise. They should become more numerous during the late morning/early afternoon. So how much rain will we see? We are thinking .25" would be a good average. Some lucky places may see more in any given thunderstorm. Here is a look at this morning's NAM model... this is this particular model's rainfall forecast:



Click to enlarge

Behind this front, we'll cool down a bit... and, most importantly, become LESS HUMID for the middle part of the week. Another front is due in at the beginning of the weekend with another rain chance... but it's not much of a "relief" front. In fact, we WARM UP behind it. We'll talk more about that as the week goes on!

Carl is off this week, so I am doubling up on my duties here! I will still try to blog regularly! Oh, before I sign off... here is a nice reminder of what February is like:


This is a viewer photo sent in by Misty Horn of New Lebanon. This is her rottweiler puppy, Molly... who loved playing in the snow. At the time, I wasn't too keen of the snow... but right about now... it doesn't sound that bad!! Haha!

Have a good one!
Jamie

Warm & Dry

We all know it's been warm and dry lately... but it's actually been that way for quite awhile now! How about some statistics as we end this boring-weather-week?!

According to NOAA... we had the fifth warmest spring on record for the contiguous United States. The four warmest springs in order are 1910, 2004, 2000 and 1934. The average US temperature for May was 63.14° F, which was 2.08° F above the 20th century mean and the 11th warmest May on record, based on preliminary data.

It was also a record-dry spring in the Southeast. During the month of May, the average precipitation for thecontinental U.S. was 2.65 inches,which is 0.22 inches below the 20th century mean, but near the long-term average, based on preliminary data.

May 2007 was the driest on record for Georgia,while it was third driest for Ohio and Alabama, and the Southeast Region overall.

Approximately 34 percent of the contiguous U.S.was in moderate-to-exceptional drought in early June, according to the federal U.S. Drought Monitor. Drought impacts have included low streamflows and mountain snowpack, parched soils and pastureland, and numerous wildfires. The dryconditions across the Southeast worsened wildfire activity during May across Florida and southern Georgia.

Here is a look at this week's Drought Monitor:


Click to enlarge

You can see that much of the viewing area (mainly the Southern half) is now in a MODERATE DROUGHT. We're at the low-end of the drought scale... but if the dry weather keeps up as it is, this could be a very bad situation throughout the summer. Once you get into a dry situation... it is often difficult to get out of it, unfortunately!

Meantime, our temperatures will be coming up this weekend. Mid 80s on Saturday... 90s for Father's Day and Monday. There is a slim shot of some spotty showers/thunderstorms Sunday... but a better chance comes next week as a front moves in and hangs out for a few days. We're thinking scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible TUE-THU. The flow is weak, and so is the front... so it's not a sure-thing... but at least the chance is there!

Happy Father's Day to all the Dad's out there!
Jamie

Bonus Rain!

We have two lone thunderstorms out there... As of 8pm they are moving through Champaign County. These storms are heading southwest... so some counties that COULD see some rain late this evening include:

CLARK
MIAMI
MONTGOMERY
PREBLE

The thunderstorms are not severe at this point, but have had some pretty good wind gusts with them. Also small hail is possible, believe it or not! They seem to be holding together pretty good... let's hope that trend continues as they move southwest into areas that REALLY need the rain!

UPDATE (9PM)... the two thunderstorms have merged into ONE... and it's weakening quite a bit. It's also moving rather sloooooow. If you get rain outta this one, you're lucky!! :)

Let us know if you get some!
Jamie

Here Goes a Broken Record!

This is the type of weather pattern where we start to sound like broken records! "Warm and dry! Warm and dry! Warm and dry!" Yes, it does look like this will continue as we go through much of the next 7 days. The main culprit is a large ridge of high pressure at the surface AND up into the atmosphere. You can see how it extents from the surface:

Click to enlarge

To about 18,000 feet:

Click to enlarge

Here is a look at how we are getting drier and drier across the Miami Valley:

Click to enlarge

Some of you have actually been more fortunate... as the Northern viewing area has seen quite a bit of rain over the past few weeks. But from I-70 South... these dry conditions are the rule.

As Erik mentioned over the weekend, the next chance of rain is a good ways away. The models continue to show a cold front moving through Tuesday-ish. But remember the last cold front that came through? Not everyone saw rain! Hopefully the places that really need it will get it this time around.

Have a good one!
Jamie

Things Getting Dry!

While things have been getting dry the last couple of months... this is the first time that the Miami Vally has been on the verge of a D1 Moderate Drought.

For months now Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, and Florida have been extremely dry. With the help of Tropical Storm Barry things have dramatically improved across the state of Florida... but for us it looks like we will continue to stay dry for at least the next week or so.

Now while I don't like to give false hope... and often times extended models can be excessive with their precipitation forecasts... It looks like our next best chance of rain will be accompanied by a cold front next Monday/Tuesday (18th/19th of June).

And with a little bit of luck we'll get it!

-EZ

Severe Threat Over

Severe thunderstorms passed to the SOUTH and to the NORTH of Dayton... but we didn't get much rain here in the heart of the Miami Valley. We think the rain that developed earlier in the day helped to "stablize" the atmosphere... so when a line of thunderstorms started to move in from the West around 3-4pm... it weakened as it moved into our part of the atmosphere that was already worked-over. Frustrating... because we really do need the rain!

But at least we didn't get the severe weather! Up near Akron, there was a report of 4.25" hail! That is near-softball size! The only damage report in our area came from Clinton county... a severe thunderstorm brought damaging winds that took some tree limbs down there. But besides a spotty evening shower, we will see dry conditions tonight and right through the weekend.

In fact, the weekend looks beautiful, with highs in the upper 70s Saturday and near 80 on Sunday. Great weather if you are headed to Poultry Days in Versailles... or the St. Helen's Spring Festival in Dayton! The Yellow Springs Street Fair is this weekend, too! There's a lot to do this weekend! Including yardwork... I am actually headed home to beat myself over the head with the garden hose. No, really, I will be doing some watering this evening. I know, it's so exciting...

Before I go, we wanted to share our NEW AND IMPROVED website with you! If you have bookmarked the blog, you may not have seen it yet. Go to:

www.wdtn.com

Let us know what you think! Please keep in mind parts of the layout are still being tweaked... and some of the links may not be working properly just yet. Think of this as a sneak-peek of things to come. We are very excited about the new site, and hope you like it. Feel free to leave your comments/suggestions about what you would like to see on it (especially on the weather page). That is where we have the most pull!

Have a great weekend!
Carl

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 4 PM

With an approaching cold front, a watch has been issued for our viewing area. As of this post, a strong storm is passing through northern Mercer county. Other storms lie across southern Indiana moving east at 40 to 45 miles per hour. At this time, it appears the greatest threat of severe will mainly south of I 70 with the primary threat being damaging winds in excess of 50 mph.

If any warnings are issued, I will interrupt the French Open and let you know about it. Otherwise, sit back and enjoy the men's semis. I wish I could have Roger Federer's backhand!

We Have a Winner!!

Greetings, Bloggers!

The 1st-90-Degree-Day contest is officially OVER! Dayton International Airport recorded a reading of 91 degrees at 2:43pm. It actually hit 90-degrees BEFORE that, though! So here is our delimma: The contest rules said "the closest person without going over wins". BUT.... EVERYONE went over!! :) Sooooo I am going to use the earliest time guess as our winner! So here is a look at our top 3 places:

Congratulations to...

Our 2nd Runner Up....
JEREMY.... with a guess of 3:13pm!

Our 1st Runner Up...
CINDY HOLMS... with a guess of 3:00pm!

And our WINNER... and first annual 90-degree day CHAMPION is...
MT!! With a guess of 2:45pm!

Great job, mt! I will contact you via email so you can get your Channel 2 T-shirt! I bet you're excited! ;)

Now that the contest is over, it's time to turn our attention to the potential for SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS on Friday. A powerful cold front is coming our way... and today it is producing severe thunderstorms across the Plains and Upper Great Lakes. If any of those thunderstorms hold together, they could reach the Miami Valley Friday morning, although in a weakened state.

Our best shot of strong thunderstorms comes as the cold front gets closer. We are thinking anytime between noon and 5pm or so. The biggest threats will be damaging winds and large hail. Of course, we will be tracking the rain on Live Doppler 2X... so stay tuned to Channel 2! We'll let you know if there are warnings issued!

Have a great warm evening!
Jamie

Hot Melts!!

"Hot Melts" is the name of one of our weather graphics. I used it tonight in a tease... it is a giant word that says "HOT"... and... well... the hot melts. ;) That is what we'll be dealing with on Thursday, as our high temperatures climb into the upper 80s/lower 90s across the Midwest.

So we have a hot day or two in there... (the humidity will also be on the increase)... but it should all be short-lived. A strong cold front will sweep through on Friday, bringing a comfortable airmass back into the Miami Valley just in time for the weekend!

We still need the rain, and we could see some as that cold front comes through. Here is a look at forecasted rainfall amounts:

Click to enlarge

They appear light overall (.10" or so)... but in any given thunderstorm, we would see higher amounts. So let's hope for THAT!! Like I said... we really need it!

In fact, due to the unusually warm and dry weather conditions, Greene County is asking water customers in Beavercreek and northern Sugarcreek Township to restrict their lawn watering for the summer. May was an unusually dry month, so demand on the water supply was extremely high for this time of the year. In the interest of public safety, the County is asking that customers limit the amount of irrigation they do to every other day, if they must irrigate at all. Those with even numbered addresses are asked to water only on even-numbered days; those with odd-numbered addresses are asked to water only on odd-numbered days. It is recommended that anyone considering new sod installation wait until wetter weather returns, or even until the fall. While there is adequate water in the aquifer to meet the County's needs, the County cannot pump enough water from the wells to meet the high water demand and water levels in the storage towers are decreasing. The lack of stored water can hamper the Fire Department's abilities to fight fires. Anyone with questions can call Green County at (937) 562-7450.

And today (Wednesday) is the last day to enter the 1st-90-degree-day-contest. It is getting suspenseful because it could come to an end on Thursday! It will be close... we will have to wait until the final hour to see if it does! Please be patient as we sort through blogs and emails for our winner! We will contact you if you won. And I know my mom entered the contest... Mom, you are not eligible because you are my family member!! ;)

I hope you all have a great evening, and stay cool on Thursday!

Jamie

First 90-Degree Day Contest

Hello, Bloggers!

Back by popular demand... it's the "Guess When We'll Reach 90-Degrees Contest"! If you'll remember... we did this with the first 80-degree day, too... but the contest ended the very next day! So hopefully this one will last at least a week or two! :) (We are going for the first offical 90-degree day at Dayton International Airport, by the way!)

Here's how you enter... just submit your guess below in the "Comments" section! You will need to include your NAME and a way to contact you (either EMAIL or PHONE NUMBER). I will not publish the contact info... just your name. I will keep the contact info here at the station, and we will let you know if you win!

Be sure you give us a DATE AND TIME that you think it will hit 90 degrees.

Example:
Jamie Jarosik jjarosik@wdtn.com
June 25th at 3:04 pm

The winner will hit that day/time combo closest... without going over! The CUT OFF DATE for putting in your guess is this coming WEDNESDAY, JUNE 6TH!!!!!!!! The prize is... a fabulous Channel 2 T-Shirt! Ooooooh.... Aaaaaahhh.... :) Let the predicting begin!

In the meantime, our weekend weather looks a little unsettled. We have a very slow-moving cold front approaching by late Sunday. Ahead of that front, we'll see scattered showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. I think the rain will be more widespread over the weekend... not AS "isolated" as we've been the past few days. Hopefully we all get a little rain at each of our homes... so we don't have to water anymore!!

I had a doctor's appointment this week, and everything with the pregnancy is going fine! I got to hear the heartbeat again, and we also heard a loud "thud"! The doc said the thud was actually a kick! I don't feel them yet, but he said I should start to feel some movement in the next few weeks. I definitely have a little belly bump... can you see it on TV yet?

Well, have a great weekend, whatever you do... perhaps the Troy Strawberry Festival? One of our bloggers mentioned Strawberry donuts yesterday... and now I can't stop thinking of them! :)

Jamie