Severe Threat Thursday

Hello, Everyone!

There appears to be an increasing threat for strong thunderstorms reaching the Miami Valley on Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma just issued a new Convective Outlook for the nation. You can see below, Southwest Ohio is in a "slight risk" for severe thunderstorms... with the moderate risk just West of Indianapolis:














Click to enlarge

Thunderstorms on Thursday will be possible at any time, but right now it looks like the greatest threat of strong/severe storms would be 6 to 9pm, with a squall line. The squall line will develop earlier in the day out in Illinois... and move in with the cold front. It looks like the thunderstorms will be moving at almost 50 miles-per-hour... that alone is almost severe wind criteria. Add in the strong winds aloft (at 5,000 ft) that will be blowing at 60 knots... if any thunderstorm taps into this and brings these strong winds down to the surface, we will definitely have some wind damage.

This is a situation that needs to be watched very closely, because a lot of ingredients need to come together for it to happen. But it is getting to be that time of the year when these systems could set off violent thunderstorms and long-tracking tornadoes. Stay tuned to 2 News, and we will keep you posted!

Carl & Jamie

Say Goodbye to Winter

Today is the final day of February and the last day of meteorological winter. March 1 begins the Spring season. I know...I know...Spring doesn't officially start until March 21, but we have increased our day length by over 2 hours since the Winter solstice and the sun angle is much higher now. There really is nothing magical about the sun's direct rays crossing into the northern hemisphere on March 21. So...the months of December, January and February are the 3 coldest months of the year. June, July and August are the 3 warmest. When you get right down to it, Spring and Fall are just transitions between the two. There is no "normal" Spring or Fall day. Already, our normal high is about 10 degrees higher than our mid-Winter low.

There is about a 4 week lag of our temperatures curve behind the radiation curve , so the light switch has already been flipped on for warmer readings. Tomorrow will bring a preview of Spring with highs in the 50s and thunderstorms possible (as discussed previously). But the battle between Winter and Summer has just begun. Summer takes the upper hand tomorrow, but Winter has a few counter punches for the weekend. I think we all know ultimately the winner and loser.

Another STRONG Storm!

Good evening, Bloggers!
I hope you are enjoying the week so far. Today's highs made it into the mid-30s across much of the area. That felt pretty good, my husband came in from the backyard and said, "It's WARM out there!" OK, maybe not warm... but better than the high of 7 degrees we saw back on February 5th!

This February has been a cold one, without a doubt! Right now, we have an average monthly temperature of 17.6 degrees. The coldest February EVER was back in 1978... when we averaged 16.9 degrees... so you can see that this year's cold is pretty significant! We won't break the record... but we are pretty close!

Temperatures will actually come up above normal for the last day of the month! On Wednesday, we'll see highs in the mid-40s. It is nice to see the snow and ice melting some... I was actually able to take my little Mags running this week! Mags is my 1 and a half year old yellow lab. She loooooooves to "go running"... as you can see:



She is too funny! Anyway, temperatures will continue to rise even higher as we go into Thursday. The winds are also going to pick up... so it will sort of start to feel like Spring around here... with mild conditions, and maybe even a little muggy. This is all happening ahead of our next storm... and once again... it is a powerhouse storm system! Here's a look at the GFS model's forecast as the storm is affecting us on Thursday:


Click to enlarge

What you are looking at is the forecast surface map for Thursday evening. You can see the strong area of low pressure coming into Western Wisconsin. Notice the pressure with this storm... it's extremely low... at 984 mb!! Extending down from that low, there is a cold front about to move in on us here in Ohio. Below is the NAM model's forecast for areas of Relative Humidity (higher RH is blue)... and Lifted Index (a measure of instability):


Click to enlarge

This tells me that thunderstorms are possible on Thursday! The three ingredients for thunderstorms are: MOISTURE... INSTABILITY... and LIFT. And right now, it looks like we should have all three. The threat of severe weather is minimal right now... but some stronger wind gusts would not surprise me. So let's see how things set up over the next 24 hours. We will continue to keep you updated as we get closer to this storm!

Have a good night!
Jamie

Two important items!!

First item...I hope you made it through the mess on Saturday night
Second item... Our new weekend meteorologist is now on board & itching for anything but dry weather. His name is Erik Zarnitz & here he is to say hi:

Hey! Well maybe a few of you have seen me around town... I just came into Dayton about a week ago, have found a place to live and am starting to get to know some great people. I'm originally from Morristown New Jersey but have moved around quite a bit in the last few years... working everywhere from New York City to Sioux Falls South Dakota. While this is my first day at the station I look forward to bringing you the most accurate forecasts in the Miami Valley with Carl, Jamie, and Brian! Hope to Cya this weekend!
-Erik

Now it's Carl again...I was out Saturday night about 8pm & what a mess. I was coming out of the UD game & the sleet was hitting me so hard I thought it would knock me down. Then out on the icy roads heading into East Dayton & I have to say the conditions were some of the worst I've seen this winter. Thankfully the temp did get above freezing & things started to improve to a slushy mess by midnight. Hope you were able to get around ok Saturday night if you were out & about. Thanks for all the reports you sent in & continue to keep us informed when severe weather hits. Looks like we'll be quiet for a few days until another storm whips in on Thursday with showers & maybe some thunderstorms..

Carl

Movin' on down the highway.....

Hey everyone!

I know some of you have heard by now, but I wanted to let everyone know that I am leaving WDTN this week. Wednesday is my last day on air here... I start Thursday at WLWT Channel 5 in Cincinnati as their new weekend morning meteorologist. Some of you in our southern counties MAY be able to pick it up.... so keep an eye out for me! It is a great opportunity for me. But it was definately a hard decision to leave my family here at channel 2. I have had a blast working here the past two and a half years. My best friends are the people I get to work with everyday. Lucky for me, I don't have to move... so they're all still stuck with me outside of work!

Carl, Brian and Jamie will be joined by meteorologist Erik Zarnitz on the weekends keeping Storm Team 2 as the largest (And BEST) weather team in the Miami Valley.

Thanks so much for watching! I'll miss you all!!
Love, Randi


My final sign off with the weekend crew!

ANOTHER ICY NIGHT...

Get ready for a couple of icy hours! There weather warnings/advisories are valid 'til 6AM Sunday....

ICE STORM WARNING: Mercer, Auglaize, Logan, Shelby, Champaign, Clark, Darke, & Miami....around a half inch of ice accumulation is possible.... along with a wintry mess of sleet, freezing rain & snow.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY: For the rest of the Miami Valley around a quarter inch of ice accumulation is possible.... along with that messy mix of sleet/freezing rain/snow.

The northern half of Ohio is under an ice storm warning, the I-70 corridor across the state is under the Freezing Rain advisory. Travel tonight is looking nasty! I was out a little while ago and traffic was crawling because of the mess on the roads. I bet the fastest I moved was 35 on the highways... 20 at times. ODOT crews and local road crews were out throwing tons of salt, but its not helping at the moment. If you can just stay in and watch a movie tonight, that would be the best idea.

Freezing Rain has now overspread the area. Bill Gard our weatherchecker in Fountain City (and also a regular blogger here) said the freezing rain started there around 5:30pm. Up north in Bradford Scott Besecker reported freezing rain/sleet starting at 6:30pm. It's been mixing with snow at times and basically making a slushy/icy mess that is around 1" deep right outside out studio in Moraine.

The freezing rain started a little earlier than expected, meaning the amount of ice accumulating may go up. The NWS office in Wilmington is watching I-70 closely to see if counties along that corridor need to be added to the ICE STORM WARNING. Luckily our temperatures are on the way up as we speak (or as I type) and we should be seeing all the freezing rain/sleet/mess changeover to all rain in the early morning hours (I'm thinking 1-3am) on Sunday. Which means, hopefully, getting to Sunday morning activities shouldn't be a problem for most of us. However, I already saw some ice coating power lines, so we'll have to hope this ends before major ice accumulations take down power lines/tree limbs.

As always, comment us or email us at weather@wdtn.com to let us know what you're seeing!

WINTER STORM WATCH

HERE WE GO AGAIN!!! BLAH, BLAH, BLAH...
CAN YOU TELL I'M READY FOR SPRING!!!!!

Another major Winter storm is taking shape over the Rockies this evening. This new storm will play a big role in our weather starting Saturday evening into Sunday. We can expect mainly liquid precipitation... however with the temperatures running at & a little below freezing Saturday night this will mean freezing rain for most of the Miami Valley. Here's the difference between freezing rain & sleet. One of our bloggers posted this question.

FREEZING RAIN: Falls as rain but with the temperatures at the surface 32° or below freezes on contact with power lines, tree limbs, & untreated surfaces

SLEET: Falls as frozen precpipitation... like ice pellets... bounces off the ground..
Can accumulate. You can hear it pinging on your windows!!

Saturday night we can expect significant ice accumulation across the Northern half of the Miami Valley. This combined with windy conditions could lead to problems with downed power lines & tree limbs.

I think temperatures will climb above freezing along I-70 by 10pm & slowly creep north to the Sidney area by early Sunday morning.
As always we'll be here, so please give us a shout Saturday night with your weather conditions.
Carl

Freezing Rain Potential

It looks like more winter weather is on the way. A chance of freezing rain returns to the area late Saturday and Saturday night with the greatest threat across the northern part of our viewing area, especially north of US 36. That is where a greater risk exists of heavier ice accumulations. Here is the skew T Log P forecast sounding for KDAY at 7 pm Saturday showing a layer of above freezing temps between 950 mb and 775 mb with the surface temp at or a little below freezing:

Stay tuned for the lastest forecast.

Another storm on the way for the weekend!!

Hi everyone,

We're watching another storm system cranking up in the Rockies at this hour. This storm will head into the Plains by Saturday bringing severe thunderstorms from the Gulf north into the Tennessee Valley & snow across the Northern Plains. Here in the Miami Valley, we can expect rain from this system by late in the day on Saturday into Saturday night. As the moisture moves in our temperatures could be very close to freezing so we would see some sleet or freezing rain. Also Saturday night we could see some thunder & lightning. Below, you can see the storm as forecast by the GFS. This is valid Saturday night just after midnight:

















Click to enlarge

Notice the low develops the signature comma-shape of a maturing storm system. We defined it below with a purple line:















There could be some major snowfall in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest! Again, it's a tricky forecast for us... (as they all seem to be lately)... but we'll watch it as we head into the weekend! You know where to look for the latest weather information!

Have a good night!
Carl

Freezing Fog

9 pm UPDATE:
The NWS has issued a FREEZING FOG ADVISORY for the entire viewing area through 4 am Thursday.
***************************************
Many of you had to head out early this morning... and like Brian said... you had to deal with some of the worst fog in years! Visibilities were near zero at times, and the moisture from the fog produced BLACK ICE and very slick conditions on untreated surfaces. One of the police officers we interviewed said he would prefer 6" of snow than the fog and ice. I am sure many commuters agree!

We actually had a FREEZING FOG advisory out for the area this morning... and a lot of you are sending in emails asking: Just what IS freezing fog? It's actually as simple as the name... it's what we call fog when temperatures are below freezing! Although dangerous... the freezing fog can be beautiful, as some of our viewers show us. This first picture is from our Springboro weather checker, Jim Allen. You can barely see the sun, low on the horizon:




This next picture is from Bill... it's an up-close look at the freezing fog on his bushes:



Another Bill from Farmersville sent in this photo of the ice accumulation on some maple seeds in his yard:


Up in Shelby County, Anna was no exception! Freezing fog made everything look pretty and white:


And this is my favorite! This comes from Gloria Grim of Jamestown. She says she has been waiting to take this picture for a couple of years, and had the perfect chance with this fog event. She took this Tuesday evening out on Jasper Rd:


So will we see more fog tonight?? YES. We are expecting fog to re-develop this evening. BUT... the good news for the morning commute... our winds will be increasing as a cold front comes through! That will help to mix out some of the fog... so the morning drive should not be as bad as it was today. We are expecting the fog to dissipate between 2 and 4 am. But let us know if you run into any problems out on the roads early in the morning!

Thanks, and be safe!
Jamie

Fog and Ice

What a combo!! We have been seeing some of the lowest visibilities that I can ever remember. The combination of clearing skies, high humidity from rain and melting snow, snow on the ground, and light winds produced the perfect recipe for pea soup thick fog. The airport has been reporting zero vis since 4am. Black ice is all over the place on the untreated roads and sidewalks. There have been numerous reports of injury causing falls. So if you have to go out this morning, be extremely cautious and allow a lot of extra time to get where you are going. Conditions should improve significantly during the afternoon. Winds are expected to increase overnight, so fog should not be as prevalent tonight.

February Thaw!

Hello everyone!!! What a warming trend across the Miami Valley today. We started around 5 degrees above zero this morning & shot up 37 degrees even with the snow cover into the low 40's this afternoon. Here's a look at the highs today:

















We'll continue now with normal or above normal temps into the weekend. This sounds real good after all the bitter cold weather we've had but watch out for the melting snow & flooding. I expect we'll be doing stories on flooded yards & basements over the next few days. One of our bloggers wrote about backed up sewers with the snow pack covering the drains. This is a big problem & will only enhance the problems. He's right if you can dig the drains out around you house if you can. Another big problem will be the increasing potholes over the next few days due to the rain, & extreme warm-up. If you know of any big pothole problems let us know so we can pass the info on to the newsroom.

Carl

Waiting on the Weather to Change....

Hey Everyone! So I just wanted to pass along a funny weather advisory.... there's a wind chill advisory in effect in parts of Florida because wind chills tonight will be in the 30s!!! Many wind chill charts don't even start until the temperature is 40 degrees! The advisory mentions hypothermia etc. I know it all depends on what you're used to...but compared to OUR wind chill advisories where it's -20... it IS kind of funny.

I lived in the South (Mississippi) for a few years and I remember the ONE TIME there was a WINTER STORM WARNING.... we got a dusting, and it melted away by noon. But the city basically shut down as though the blizzard of the century came through. Actually, just last week when the South got its own blast of cold air, I was talking with Myrt (his mom still lives in Mississippi) and he was telling me that she was talking about "all the snow" they had gotten. So he asked her to go into more detail, and she said she could still see the grass....

So where is all this going, well, no where really... BUT in the forecast this week we're talking about "a big warm up"..... meaning the 40s. But compared with what we've seen recently... that will seem like it's time to break out the shorts and beverages with little umbrellas in them. So far this month we're averaging temperatures 17 degrees BELOW normal.

Oh, and thank you to everyone who gave me a "get well soon" wish after hearing me on the air this weekend. My voice is gone, but it's not because I'm sick..... I was up in Ypsilanti, MI Thursday and Friday cheering my sister on in the MAC Championships (she swims for Ohio University). She did REALLY well and I lost my voice yelling for her! GO BOBCATS!

TGIF!

Hello, and HAPPY FRIDAY to all! :)

There is a SNOW ADVISORY in effect for the entire viewing area. This is from 4am through 8pm Saturday. We're tracking an Alberta Clipper, as Brian mentioned below... and it looks like it could give us as much as 2 or 3 inches of snow Saturday across the area. Nothing major... just light accumulations that could make travel a little tricky!

One of the bloggers (Brad) suggested a VOTE to see who's ready for Spring. I think that's a great idea! So how about it... do you want warmer weather... or are you happy with the cold? I will kick it off with a vote for SPRING! (Carl agrees!)

The only reason I am really wanting the snow to melt, is because I have been stuck in it twice now! The first time, before my street was plowed. The second time... my street was plowed, but they plowed me into my driveway. Sooo, as I backed out... I got stuck! Thanks to my neighbors, Dave and Karen, for helping to free my car! :) I love my new neighborhood already!

Now on to some viewer pictures! I like this first one... from Lorri Stephens of Springfield. She tells us this icicle actually formed from the ground UP!



Next, a beautiful shot of Weaver Chapel on Wittenberg University's campus. Melissa Crosby is a senior there, and sent us this photo:


Another pretty picture from Nancy in Urbana. This is what it looks like along Rt. 55:


Awww... the cutie below is Avery. This was her very first blizzard! She got to play in the snow on Valentine's Day:


Neither rain... nor sleet... nor snow... ;) Thanks to all the US Postal workers who kept the mail coming! This is a picture from Joe Moniaci of Sidney, showing his mailcarrier struggling through the blizzard:


Linda Bouris of Centerville was supposed to be helping shovel the driveway. Instead, she got creative with large chunks of ice and made a nice ice sculpture! Way to procrastinate... sounds like something I would do! :) She didn't notice the rainbow at the center of the photo until she called it up on her computer:


Next... some pictures from Wilmington... where they got more ice than snow. I really think freezing rain makes for some of the best weather photos! These were sent to us by Randy Riley:



That's all for now! I hope you have a great weekend!
Jamie

Deja Vu All Over Again

wrt to Yogi Berra. Alright...why that title? Because we set a new record low again today at -5° breaking the 127 year old record of -3° in 1885. Cincinnati tied the record this morning dropping down to 0°. Keep your fingers crossed. This just might be our last sub-zero morning for the rest of the winter season as temperatures will be moderating into next week. By the time we get to March, temperatures below zero have only rarely occurred.

An Alberta Clipper is on the way for late tonight and tomorrow. Just a thought, why don't we call them Saskatchewan Schooners? I know my synoptic met. prof. at Purdue liked that term when I used it once. A system like this tends to bring us only minor snowfall and that should be the case this time with generally 1 to 2 inches. A quick reinforcing shot of cold air comes in behind this low for Monday, but next week the cold snap finally breaks as ever increasing solar radiation begins to push the fringes of winter back to higher latitudes. Come on Spring! But not too quickly...I still need to make a few more turns in the snow.

A Record Cold Morning

Now that our snowstorm is past, the deep snow cover combined with clearing skies last night resulted in a new record low for Dayton Intl. The temperature dipped to -5° breaking the old record of -3° in 1905. Other record lows were reported around the state with temps dipping to -8° in Ft. Wayne and Cleveland tied a record at -4°. Some of our weathercheckers were even colder with Maynard Evans (13" yesterday) down to -12°, John Kingham in Tipp City with -12° and Bill Telzerow in Beavercreek/Xenia dropping to -9°. Ice fog also formed this morning reducing visibilities, especially in areas to our west including Wayne Co., IN, and Middletown, OH. Get ready for more bitter cold temperatures tonight. Snow is still expected for Saturday.

Ich habe eine Frage. Does anybody else have the problem of our comment string coming up in German on your computer? Not the comments themselves but the blog site. For example, my home computer says Jamie or Randi "hat gesagt" instead of "said". Just curious....I do go to donnerwetter.de for the weather in Germany but that's the only tie-in I can see.

Well bleiben Sie warm...bis Morgen.

Thanks and More Pictures

Hello, everyone!
This is Chief Meteorologist Carl Nichols, and once again I want to give a big THANK YOU to everyone for keeping us posted throughout the storm. Your pictures, weather reports, and snowfall/icing totals helped us tremendously yesterday! You continue to be our "window" to the weather conditions around the Miami Valley! Happy Valentine's Day!!

Now here's Jamie with some of your pictures!
******************************
Hi, Bloggers! I hope you are making it around ok with all the snow. I actually got STUCK last night, coming home from work! I made it onto my STREET... but then I just stopped... couldn't go forward or backward. My tires were just spinning... spinning... spinning over the snowpack and ice. (Sorry to any neighbors I woke up!) Finally, my husband had to get out of cozy bed to come rescue me! (Thanks, Honey!) :)

Anyway, here are some more of the photos sent in by our viewers! Enjoy!
Jamie

This first picture is from Lynn in Sidney... showing us just how much snow they got... it's knee-deep!















This photo is of Chris Koman and his neighbor, Doug. We think they are debating who's snowblower is faster!
















This one amazes me... a cat that actually LIKES the snow! Have you ever seen that before?















I love this one... it comes from Don and Libby Hayes of Wilmington. Down there, they got quite a bit of freezing rain... and their Cherry Tree is sagging under the weight of the ice:

Today It's the Northeast's Headache!

Thanks to all for the snow totals, ice reports, road reports, etc. We have received so many pics that I am still trying to sort through all of them. One small word of advice...when you send your pictures, please tell us your location. I have a great cell phone pic of the drifts from somewhere up north in the 419 area code. I'll have to call the cell number later this morning to find out where the photo was taken.

Final snow totals....Looks like Maynard Evans in De Graff is our winner with 13". Don Shatto in Sidney close behind with 12" although the NWS had a report of 15" in Sidney from ODOT. It looks like the heaviest snow totals were along SR 47. Blowing and drifting snow will continue to be a problem today. The sleet worked as far north as Greenville, through northern Miami County over to Champaign. Most of the heavier freezing rain fell south of us in Butler, Warren and Clinton Cos. Some ice damage will be possible today with gustier winds in these counties.

Bitter cold air settles in for the rest of the week with another shot of snow due to arrive on Saturday. Don't worry....this system won't be anything at all like the one that move through maybe and inch or two...too early to say. A month ago that would have been a big story but now....hmmmph.

YOUR SNOW PICTURES

Greetings, Bloggers!

Here is our 6:30pm update. We are continuing to watch the snow/sleet line work southward across the area. So where you HAVE been seeing sleet, eventually... you will see a switch-over to SNOW. We can expect 1 to 3 more inches of accumulation as the evening goes on. Eventually everything should wind down towards 11pm or midnight.

But the winds won't! It is still going to be quite windy, with blowing and drifting snow in those areas that do NOT have a layer of sleet/freezing rain. Mainly, the northern Miami Valley.

Wednesday morning, we will start out with a few light snow showers in the area... eventually tapering off. It will be COLD... with highs in the TEENS as another Arctic airmass settles in!

Now for the fun... your snow pictures!

Megan from Beavercreek sent in this picture of the ice accumulating on her window. This makes you feel pretty good to be INdoors:



Joyce in Tipp City tired to shelter her car as much as she could, pulling under her garage overhang. Little did she know, the snow would blow off the garage and pile up on her car!


Apparently, Jamie in Troy had that same idea... and the car ended up under a mound of snow!


Don took this picture during the morning snow in Huber Heights. This is a look at Old Troy Pike at Kellenburger Rd:


The photo below comes from Tyler in Miamisburg... he shows us their winter wonderland they woke up to this morning:

Jeff in Kettering was up before the sun, and captured some of the morning's snow on his early walk:

Allison in Celina sends us the following picture of snow drifts... Mercer County is under the Blizzard Warning... and you can see the blowing and drifting snow that is a result of those strong winds!


And here's an even BIGGER drift sent in by Mike & Sheryl in Greenville... quite impressive:


Brittany from Tipp City sends us the snowblowing picture below. I'm not sure who it is... but I bet he or she is happy they did the snowblowing before the icy layer fell on TOP of that snow!


Mike & Rosie from Northern Butler Township in Montgomery County sent in the next image. I really like this one, as I am on the same page! If you can't see it, that sign says, "Think Spring"!


Everyone loves a snowday, right? Well, poor Mr. Smith from Colonel White High School spent HIS with shovel in hand! Sorry, Mr. Smith!


How do you stay warm outdoors? KEEP MOVING! Punkin and Charlie race in the Sullivan's backyard:


Hot Chocolate, anyone? Robert's dog Darby is ready for it in Arcanum!


Awwww... how CUTE! This is little Chloe... all warm in her sweater. The Williams family says she loves the snow!


Another too-cute-for-words photo. This is Jacob, working hard to MOW the snow! He is also "thinking spring," apparently!


Little Mason is all tuckered out after helping his daddy shovel the snow. Well no wonder! Look at the size of his shovel!


Thanks everyone for sending in your pictures! We have gotten in so many great ones. We will continue to post more as the next few days go on...
Stay safe out there,
Jamie

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR NORTHERN MIAMI VALLEY

There is now a BLIZZARD WARNING for our northern counties... including
Darke, Mercer, Auglaize, Shelby, and Logan.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDSAND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUTCONDITIONS AND SOME ROADS BECOMING IMPASSABLE DUE TO DRIFTINGSNOW...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOUMUST...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

Good post from Randi below for the rest of the Miami Valley...
Jamie

SLEET SOUTH, SNOW NORTH

Hey everyone,
Just thought I'd do a quick update on the weather situation.

SOUTH OF I-70:
Right now the snow has transitioned to sleet along and south of I-70. Those areas should see the sleet for the remainder of the afternoon, changing back over to snow tonight after sunset...and we may pick up a few more inches overnight into early wednesday. Snow totals south of I-70 were around 5-6" before that changeover occured.... so 6-10" by the end of the storm still seems reasonable.
What to watch out for: if we get enough sleet and ice built up, there is a chance of power lines going down.

NORTH OF I-70:
Even as far north as Troy you may see a little of that snow mixing with/changing to sleet. But for the most part the northern miami valley will be seeing mainly snow all afternoon... that means adding even more to our already high snowtotals. It'll be easy for you guys up north to hit that 12" mark. We had weather checkers calling in with totals upwards of 8" in Sidney and Greenville at noon.... so get ready for a foot.
What to watch out for: winds are picking up, so blowing snow combined with falling snow (heavy at times) will really reduce visibility.

Please keep commenting us with your snowfall totals, and we'll try and post some of the TONS of weather pics you are sending us right here on the blog. Theres no way we can show them all, you guys are having a field day with the cameras! (and if I were home I'm certain there would be a whole series of Blitz (my 110# lab) living it up in the snow!).

Expect another update from Carl and Jamie this afternoon....

HAVE FUN IN THE SNOW!
Randi


PS: to everyone with a snowday..... your welcome (ill be happy to accept your thanks in the form of cookies)

EVENING UPDATE

The models are all trending a bit colder with the storm, so we have been tweaking the forecast. The mix of sleet and freezing rain may not make it as far north as previously thought... so that will mean higher snowfall amounts for some counties. Here is an update, as the new data rolls in this evening... all totals through Wednesday morning:

MERCER, AUGLAIZE, DARKE, SHELBY, LOGAN, CHAMPAIGN, MIAMI COUNTIES: 9 to 12 INCHES

PREBLE, MONTGOMERY, CLARK, GREENE: 8 to 10 INCHES

SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BUTLER, WARREN, CLINTON: 3 to 6 INCHES

NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BUTLER, WARREN, CLINTON: 8 to 10 INCHES

Again, you can send snowfall totals here to the blog... or email us totals and pictures to weather@wdtn.com. As we get into the heart of this storm... we are not going to be able to answer as many comments as we have been... so please be patient! We will, however, publish comments as we can... and update the blog as needed.

Thanks to all of you!

Tricky Forecast

However tricky the forecast is... one thing is for sure: it's going to be very tricky on the roads on Tuesday! Carl and I have each gone over the models, have talked all the scenarios out, and this is what we have come up with for our forecast.

TONIGHT: SNOW. Snow will develop tonight, and increase in intensity as we approach sunrise. There will be heavier snow at times, and we wouldn't be surprised if there is what is called, "thunder snow". This is fairly rare, and happens when there is a lot of instability to accompany the snowfall! We expect accumulations around 2 to 4 inches by morning.

TUESDAY NOON: MIXING WINTERY PRECIP SOUTH OF I-70/SNOW CONTINUES NORTH OF I-70. The snow will eventually mix with sleet and freezing rain as the late morning moves into early afternoon. North of I-70... the air will be cold enough to keep everyone in the SNOW... but along and South of I-70... we will see this ICY MIX. Precipitation will be heavy at times, and expect blowing snow as the winds really crank up!

TUESDAY 5 PM: WINTERY MIX CHANGES BACK OVER TO SNOW. As the storm pulls away from us, it will pull colder air into the Dayton Metro area and locations South. That will change our sleet/freezing rain mixture back into snow. It will still be very windy, so blowing snow is possible.

All in all... it is going to be one bad travel day! Here are the totals we expect across the area:

MERCER, AUGLAIZE, SHELBY, LOGAN: 10 to 12 inches

UNION (IN), DARKE, MIAMI CHAMPAIGN, CLARK: 8 to 10 inches

PREBLE, MONTGOMERY, GREENE, BUTLER, WARREN, CLINTON: 6 to 8 inches, with some heavy icing possible.

If the track moves north and pulls in warmer air... the totals could go down. If it moves south and any one location stays in the colder air... the totals could go up! But this is what we think will happen based on what we are seeing this afternoon. When we get into winter storms like this one, we do a lot of "Nowcasting"... so stay tuned as we continue to keep you updated!

Jamie & Carl

GET READY, CUZ HERE IT COMES!

This storm is giving us headaches, and its still over 24 hours away. This afternoon the weather team assembled to go over all the possible scenerios.... and none of them are pretty. The latest models pulled that low northward, bringing with it, milder air, so that throws a big wrench in the forecast because now we're adding freezing rain/sleet/ice to the mix.

Here's the deal, the storm is just now getting itsself organized off in the West. It will track south through Texas, then head up through TN and KY. Because it hasn't ejected eastward yet the track is very hard to pinpoint. And frankly a 50 mile shift in the low north OR south will change our forecast bigtime. However, one thing looks certain: TUESDAY WILL BE BAD. Travel will be treacherous. So much so that here at the station we're already on alert to have our sleeping bags ready. I for one will be here for the long haul (Monday afternoon until everything is over on Wednesday).

Ok, so as of right now (being Sunday at 4:15pm) here's what it looks like:
Snow develops Monday late afternoon/ evening.. should be light at first, gradually increasing in intensity as the night wears on. So Monday shouldn't be too bad. Then as we move into the early morning hours, more mild air works in and the freezing line approaches...Folks up North (Auglaize, Mercer, Logan, Shelby) you should stay all snow the entire time. But for a while in thorough early Tuesday afternoon a nasty mix of freezing rain/sleet/snow could fall from Greenville through Piqua to Urbana and southward (looks like right now US Hwy 36 might be a good divider line). By Tuesday afternoon colder air works back in and the ice line shifts back south. Everyone will be back to all snow by Tuesday night.... and it should stay snow through the end of the storm on Wednesday.

SO, heres what were going with for now (with changes as necessary):
NORTHERN COUNTIES: ALL SNOW 8-12"
DARKE, MIAMI, WAYNE IN, CHAMPAIGN & CLARK: 8-10" SNOW WITH SOME ICE
I-70 SOUTHWARD: AROUND 1" ICE & 4-8" SNOW

YUCK. If the low tracks further south than expected the snowfall totals could go up across the board... if its further north ramp up the ice totals north of 70. With the heavy icing (and strong winds) on Tuesday power outages are very possible, along with the mess on the roads.

I'll update this as needed... and then probably for fun as I camp out here Monday through Wednesday. The last time I had to sleepover here was the huge snowstorm in December 04. I was in the weathercenter for 48 hours straight with a 3 hour nap on a couch in an office.... we'll see what this brings.

OH! also, if you want to get accurate snowfall totals from this storm to post, make sure you go out Monday and see how much snow you already have on the ground (stick a ruler in a few places and average them together) that way we'll be able to tell the "new" snow from the stuff thats been around all week!

Randi :)

Here it goes again!

Hey Everyone! It's Randi. After standing outside in the snow for 3 days this week my fingers have finally thawed out enough to let me blog.....and now we're getting ready for another round!

The national weather service issued a Winter Storm Watch this afternoon effective Monday afternoon through late Tuesday. For now they have included all the counties along and south of I-70, but even in their latest discussion the forecasters there stated it's very likely they'll extend that watch northward as the low approaches. Today the models are inching that low northward, so the forecasted snowfall amounts could go up as that storm system develops. Theres also a big question as far as the TYPE of precip. For us, it'll be all snow.... but just south of the Ohio River there may be some mixing early on.

Right now it looks like Monday's snow will be on the lighter side, with snow picking up overnight and into Tuesday. It's also looking like as that low works eastwards out of the state the wraparound precip will dump another several inches. So I'm going 4-7" right now.... but that is subject to frequent/major changes as we tick down the hours til the onset of the snow.
EDIT: alright, the latest model runs have come in.... and they are moving this low even further northward, and I am going to update my snowfall forecast to have 5-8" on the ground by Tuesday morning... not counting anything that falls on Tuesday and that could easily put places over the foot mark. This is going to get VERY interesting......

Of course, I know there are a lot of you out there coming to the blog soley to find out the likelyhood of a snowday with this storm. Case in point, my husband John. He's a teacher (one of the lucky ones that got 3 days off last week) and so are as are many of our friends and relatives, and whenever I start talking about snow on the air it's just a matter of minutes before the phone rings or someone texts asking if it'll be enough to cancel school. So, Monday be ready to go. Tuesday, keep your eye on the bottom of the tv screen because if this varifies, we may be seeing a mess on the roads Tuesday.

Alright, seeing as I am reporting Monday through Wednesday I'll be the one outside during all of this, so I'm gonna go get some new wool socks and get ready to do more bundled up impressions of the little brother from "A Christmas Story"..... i think his name was Randy too!

Trends

Hello, everyone... and happy Friday!

Today was a little warmer, could you tell? Our high temperature made it up to 19 degrees at Dayton International... and a lot of our Weather Checkers were in the 20s this afternoon! Here are just a few:

Eaton: 21
Fairborn: 23
Kettering: 23
Miamisburg: 20
Middletown: 22
Sidney: 20
Springboro: 20
Tipp City: 20

The slooooow warming trend will continue this weekend, with highs in the lower-20s on Saturday... and mid-20s by Sunday. Saturday we'll see more sunshine... and on Sunday, expect an increase in cloud cover, ahead of our next storm.

That storm brings the chance of snow back to the Miami Valley starting Sunday night, and continuing through Tuesday. The models are trending for more of an organized storm... as you can see below. You are looking at the 500mb charts (18,000 ft up)... valid for Tuesday morning. First... last nights GFS run:

Click to enlarge


Next, this afternoon's GFS run:

Click to enlarge

Notice how it's just ever so slightly more organized? We can also see that on our QPF (Quantative Precipitation Forecast). First last night's run:

Click to enlarge

And now this afternoon's run:



Last night, the GFS was only giving us .10"... this afternoon that has gone up to 2.5". The latest data would give us a few inches of snow across the area Sunday through Tuesday. We like to say "The Trend is Your Friend"... so we will continue to watch it. By far, it looks like the heaviest precipitation will be south of us. Let's see if this trend continues through the weekend. Randi will be here with an updated forecast... we'll see if we can't talk her into doing her first blog!

Enjoy the heat wave this weekend! ;)
Jamie

More Snow Photos

Good evening, All...

Sorry for the late posting today, but we have been busy! We were in a meeting this afternoon... dealing with some exciting new equipment we are getting for the forecast center! Stay tuned... this is BIG stuff for local weather buffs!! We'll let you know more as we get into March!

The local chapter of the American Meteorological Society also came to the station today, for their monthly meeting. They watched the 6pm news, and then Carl, Brian and I chatted with them in the forecast center. We talked all about Live Doppler 2X... showed them our graphics system... and Carl even told some old Navy stories! Thanks to all that came out... it was great to have you here. The AMS is now getting ready for TECH FEST 2007... that is coming up in just about a week!

On to the weather... a WIND CHILL ADVISORY is again in effect overnight into Friday morning. We will see temperatures drop down near zero for overnight lows (below zero in outlying areas)... and with a west wind at 5-15... the wind chill will reach 10-to-15 below zero at times. I feel like I sound like a broken record... but the bitter cold continues!

I want to share some more winter wonderland pictures from viewers! I know a lot of kids would like to be spending MORE time out in the snow, but they have to take it in doses, as it is just TOO cold to enjoy. This first guy has it right, though.... Charlie the Grayhound is all bundled up in his boots and hoodie... ready to play:

This next picture was taken in Kettering... Jeff Meyers says they got 6" of snow near his house:

The photo below is Ludlow Falls in Miami County. It's just beautiful how the falls have frozen completely! Terry Netzley sent this in:

Below is a photo of Noah Becker, 16 mo. old, enjoying the recent snowfall. Noah lives in Dayton with his two dogs (one of which he's putting to work!), his two cats and new goldfish named Earl.

Here is a different picture... this a close-up of the ice that formed between a storm window and the indoor window. Bill Schmidt from Farmersville sent this in:

Here's one from one of our Weather Checkers... Don Shatto from Sidney! This is his great granddaughter, Aubrie and her snowman... how cute!

And it's not just kids and dogs that like the snow! Brooke sends us this picture of Firecracker, who also wants to play:

That's it for tonight! Tomorrow we'll have more on the weekend ahead and next week's possible snowfall.

Have a good one!

Jamie