Pattern Change.... R U ready for it??

For the last few weeks we've seen a very active Sub-Tropical Jet (red line). Thats been breeding storm system after storm system... but luckily for us we've been mostly on the warmer side of things keeping us in the rain. All we needed was a hick-up from the northern branch to get some cooler temperatures in here and we could have seen plenty of snow, but it looks as if before that happens our pattern is going to change.
And its going to change into the pattern below. East coast Trough, West Coast ridge. And for us that means Northwesterly Flow and very cold temperatures. This pattern is excellent at giving us small doses of snow from Alberta Clippers but is mostly known for its bitter cold temperatures. If you dont like the bitter cold (which will be here for the start of the New Year) I do have some good news... Its a temporary set up... and it looks as if things are going to revert back in another 2 weeks.

Merry Christmas!!

Hope you all enjoyed the day...
Temperatures in the 40's, Plenty of Sun, not bad at all for Christmas!

So how was your Christmas?
While I have no family in the Miami Valley, David and Gail where kind enough to be my adopted family for the day, it was great to hang around with them. Wonderful food (roast pork, mashed potatoes, and gravy too!) and just a nice family atmosphere.....even went outside and threw a football around for a little while.

Weather wise things will be quiet here for the next few days... but Friday and New Years Eve look like they'll be a little more active. We'll blog about it a little later this week.
-Erik

Active Pattern... but where do we stand

For the past month or so we have seen storm after storm track right over the Miami Valley, often times giving us a mix for everything from sleet to rain and even some periods of snow. While things still look active it seems as if the track of these storms has pushed a little further west. The map below is from the 18Z GFS run and shows this weekends upcoming system.

In order to see heavy snow in the Miami Valley you need a strong subtropical jet(in blue) bringing moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico and an active Northern Jet bringing in a well timed shot of cold air. While things look ripe for strong lows and big snows for the plains... there just isn't enough cold air to give us a sizable snowstorm. With the southern branch of the jet to our west most of our precip will be in the form of rain on this next system. After the low passes we will see snow showers and perhaps some light accumulations but nothing significant.
However if the pattern remains this active... it is only a matter of time until the jets phase together to our east giving us our shot at some heavy snow.

Pictures from the weekend... Thanks for all the pictures

First picture is from Jeff in Beavercreek, OH he recorded 2-3 inches of snow by 6pm Sunday
The second picture is from Donna and Jeff in Huber Heights. They sent in this picture of their son Xan mowing the back yard.
The Third and Fourth pictures come from Su Berry... quite the photographer!!

Sunday Morning Wind Gusts

As the Cold air finally moved through the Miami Valley Sunday morning, many areas saw some very gusty winds!
On our Weatherbug network we had a gust over 50mph!

Urbana Junior High School - 51 mph gust
Springfield News-Sun - 44mph gust
Greeneview HS in Jamestown - 40 mph gust
Ohio Hi-Point Career Center, Bellefontaine - 38 mph gust

Weather Checker Bill in Xenia recorded a 45 mph gust at 6am

How windy were things are your place? We'd love to hear

Weekend Storm Snowfall Totals

Please excuse the delay. With the impending winter storm on our hands and a complicated forecast we have had our hands full the last couple of days.

The storm piled up snow early on Saturday morning blanketing most of the area with 2-4 inches. Then as the low moved north and strengthened it pulled in enough warm air to change the entire Miami Valley over to freezing rain and rain.
Here are some totals (before the rain and freezing rain!) courtesy of our weather checkers! Thanks!!!


Saturday's Totals
Jim in Beavercreek - 4"
Hope in Bellbrook - 3"
Jason in Brookville - 5"
Kevin Keefer in Centerville - 3"
Mike in Covington - 3"
Maynard in Degraff - 3"
John in Eaton - 3.5"
Dorothy in Fairborn - 2"
Lowell in Greenville - 4"
Barbara in Kettering - 2"
Vicki in New Carlisle 3.25"
Bob in Piqua - 3"
Don in Sidney - 3"
John in Tipp City - 4"
Barb in Union - 3.5"
Betty in Versailles - 3"
Bud in Wapakoneta - 3"















This is a snapshot from the 00z model run for Sunday morning. The GFS & the NAM where putting .5 (snow/rain) precipitation north of Dayton around the Sidney area for late Saturday night. With a strengthening low pressure and tight pressure gradient.. high wind was the easiest part of the forecast. The next forecast parameter had to do with the change over... the faster the change over... the more snow. Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on your outlook) the change over didn't occur until 6AM at the Dayton International, later for places further east. Cutting back the snowfall totals on Sunday morning. Most areas did see about 1-2 inches (very hard to measure because of all the wind). And in northern portions of the Valley (Logan, Shelby, & Mercer) 2-3 was a more common number.

Just Enough Time to Catch Your Breath

Well...the snow totals are in from our latest storm and 3 to 4 inches seemed to be the most common amounts. A few spots hit 5 inches. Bonnie Lotter in Springboro had a 5 inch amount along with Bill Telzerow in Greene Co. I measured 4 inches here at our studio in Moraine.

Skies cleared overnight and with fresh snow cover, heat flew out of the atmosphere ( that long-wave radiation/emissivity thing regardless of increased CO2 concentrations) and temperatures dropped like a rock. Maynard Evans in DeGraff called in with -1° and John Kingham in Tipp had +1° for overnight lows. DAY slipped to 8° and Wilmington was down to 3° last I checked.

Well, enjoy the sun today even though we won't get a lot of warming with all those tiny mirrors on the ground in the form of snow cover. More snow is on the way tonight, so stay tuned to the latest forecasts...another winter weather advisory maybe issued later today.

BD

Jamie came into the studio this afternoon!

She stopped by this Tuesday afternoon bringing baby Claire. What a cute kid! It was so nice to see her again. You should have seen everyone at the station going crazy to see them both! Carl, was hilarious going right into Grandpa mode. Infact the kid couldn't take his eyes off him. Although he says Claire was just looking at his glasses.

If you want to see Jamie you'll have to hurry up and go to the weather page and click on the video forecast... She is on there saying hi!
-Erik

Are you ready for the first measureable snow??

The models are in good agreement on the position of the system, now we just have to watch the strength/moisture associated with it.

The system headed this way Tuesday night into Wednesday is called an Alberta Clipper. Clippers form on the lee slopes of the Canadian Rockies in the Alberta Province of Canada. Generally they don't have access to much moisture and tend to be on the weak side. You take that combination and throw in the fact that they race across the county and you "usually" get some rather meager snowfall totals. But every once in a while these system can surprise you. When I was out in South Dakota a clipper delivered just over 7 inches, so these things really have to be watched closely. Without many weather observation points in Canada its difficult to hone in on the strength of the low until it moves into the states. Since they move so quickly... that’s usually less then a day away from impacting the Miami Valley.

Right now this particular system looks as if it will put down 1-3 inches of snow by Wednesday morning with perhaps another inch during the day.

Personally... I love snow, especially this time of year! (Carl just read this and said bah humbug you can come shovel my drive!)

Have a good one and stay tuned for the latest!
-Erik

Winds and Rainfall Totals from the Dec 2nd

If you didn't have to pick up your lawn furniture or trash cans off of your neighbors lawn consider yourself lucky! (or well prepared)
The cold front brought everything from heavy rain, thunderstorms, gusty winds and snow to the Miami Valley. Here are some of the wind gusts and rainfall totals.

The highest wind gusts occurred between 9 & 10pm on Sunday.
Sidney - 50mph
Jamestown - 46mph
Kettering - 46 mph
Vandalia - 43 mph
Dayton International Airport - 44 mph

Rainfall Totals from Weathercheckers (Thanks!)
Jim in Beavercreek- 1.4"
Scott in Bradford- .8"
John in Eaton- .97"
Joshua in Enon- .97"
Dorothy in Fairborn- .52"
Lowell Greenville- .91"
Barbara in Kettering- 1.1"
Jim in Middletown- 1.25"
Bud in Wapakoneta- .9"
Greg in Yellow Springs- .75"

More Rainfall Totals from Weatherbug
Piqua 1.2"
Springfield 1.15"
New Madison - 1.01"
Springboro .84"
Bellefontaine .91"
Oakwood .95"
Jamestown .69"

Rainfall Totals... but looking down the road, some snow??

Heavy rain moved through parts of the Miami Valley Monday morning and the afternoon. Actually a few areas in Southeastern Montgomery and Greene County even heard a little thunder and saw some lightning by afternoon.

Here are some 24 hour rainfall totals courtesy of our Weather Checkers. Thanks Checkers!

Scott in Bradford reported... .5"

Michael in Covington reported... .5"

Jim in Eaton reported... .9"

Jonathan in Eaton reported... .77"

Joshua in Enon... 1.3"

Dorothy in Fairborn... .9"

Lowell in Greenville... .52"

Barbara in Kettering... 1.7"

Jim in Middletown... 1.4"

Vicki in New Carlisle... 1.9"

Bob in Piqua... .6"

Don in Sidney... .5"

John in Tipp City... 1.1"

Y. Springs... 1.2"

And for those of you looking to see some snow.... we do have a chance this weekend. Of course this is still a long way out, so don't bank on it by any means. One of our models (the GFS) keeps the system to our south giving us snow... perhaps some ice... then some more snow. (The second graphic on this page is the 12 hour precipitation totals from the GFS... giving us .75-1." of liquid precip.. which could easily equal over half a foot of snow.) But another computer model (ECMWF) keeps it off to our west, which would keep us with snow to rain then briefly back to snow. This far out the models tend to swing back and forth quite a bit. Either way, things could get a little messy by Sunday. We'll be tracking it and giving you regular updates throughout the week.

How was your Thanksgiving?

Hi everyone!
Hope you had a fantastic Thanksgiving. I just thought I'd post a little about what I did... We here in the weathercenter would also love to hear how things went for you! So drop us a line when you get a chance!

-I was pretty lucky, my parents made a trip out from NJ (where I grew up). So even though I was working at the station, I had a chance to come home during my break and eat a real Thanksgiving meal with them. Turkey, apple pie and all! (my parents are awesome!)

Hope you had a great Holiday as well!
-Erik

Thanksgiving Day Snow?? There is a chance

While, I really dont believe it (yet).... both the ECMWF & the GFS (2 extended range computer models) are painting the ground white across the Miami Valley by Thursday Night. Check this out...

Now the ECMWF has a 1010mb low just to our east..... hardly a "storm" but enough of a system to hit us with just enough snow/ice to make travel a headahe. The GFS has a 1004 mb low... again, nothing blockbuster but with cold air right on its heals could also make for a slippery drive Thursday night.
Right now this all has to be taken with a grain of salt... and of course we'll have to watch things but....
Will we see rain Wednesday night... yes.
Will it be windy... yes.
Will it get much colder...yes.
Will we see light snow showers... probably late thursday into Friday
Will we see accumulations? More then likely no.... but there is a chance... :)
-EZ

Rainfall Totals... And more on the way!

Sunday a warm front was moving through from the southwest and as it moved into the Miami Valley it interacted with a weak area of low pressure giving many locations some thunder, lightning and periods of heavy rain Sunday afternoon.

Here are some of the rainfall totals courtesy of our weather checkers.

Jim in Beavercreek 1.35"

Michael in Covington 1.1"

Dennis in Cedarville .9"

Jonathan in Eaton .82"

Joshua in Enon 1.3"

Lowell in Greenville 1.39"

Barbara in Kettering 1.1"

Jim in Middletown .25"

Vicki in New Carlisle 1.7"

David in New Paris 1.25"

Bob in Piqua 1.22"

Don in Sidney 1."

John in Tipp City 1.2"

Barb in Union 1.5"

Bud in Wapakoneta 1.46"

Bill in Xenia .85"

Greg in Yellow Springs 1.05"

And we do have some more rain on the way... take a look at these maps from the GFS and NAM! A cold front is going to stall out across the area come Monday night into Tuesday. Right now it looks as if low pressure will develop along that boundary and will deliver another shot for some sizable rains. Some areas could see over an inch and I wouldn't be surprised if locally some spots pick up 2 inches.

Claire & the Family!! The Pictures are here!!

Jamie just sent these pictures in just this afternoon.

Below is part of the email she sent in along with some pictures!

We miss you Jamie!

"Hey, guys!
We are finally home, and getting somewhat settled with a newborn! Claire is a wonderful baby... soooo cute and sweet... but I am sure every mom says that about their little one!

She does like to be held a lot, so that has been making for some interesting nights! We are so tired! But she is so worth every minute of lost sleep. I honestly never thought I could feel like this about someone... I am so in love with her!! "

Pic 1. Claire Ann Jarosik is here!

Pic 2. Getting Cleaned Off

Pic 3. Hello World

Pic 4. Grandma and Claire

Pic 5. The Exhausted Jarosiks (Jamie, Ken & Claire)

Chilly week ahead!

996mb low getting cranked up over the Great Lakes... Giving us our first real burst of cold air! So get ready for some wind.... a little rain.... and a 5 day stretch of afternoon highs in the low to mid forties! In fact it looks as if much of the week we are going to have a trough over the east coast and with the Jet Stream overhead that usually means we'll get a few Alberta Clippers in the area.

An Alberta Clipper usually forms in the Province of Alberta in Canada. Usually they are fast movers and moisture starved so they usually just bring light precipitation and a reinforcing shot of cold air. Right now it looks as if we may get one of those on Thursday.

With all of this talk of cold air and clippers... I thought I'd add a little color. Actually one of our viewers Dot Baker from Kettering sent in these lovely pictures... Thanks Dot!!

Cigars for Everyone!

Update...Jamie had her baby today! Here are the details...

The baby arrived at 2:03am this morning. She is 19 ½ inches long and weighed in at 7lbs and 11oz. That's a keeper.

Hopefully, we will have some pictures tonight on 2News.

Have a great weekend!

BD

JJ Update

Just wanted to pass along the latest news on Jamie!

Jamie had to make an early exit last week because of a fever late Thursday night so she didn't have a chance to say good-bye. She has been under a doctors care but everything is fine, in fact they even monitored the baby for a half hour or so and the doctors said that the baby is doing great! And if I know Jaime at all... she is probably at home reading away brushing up on her parenting skills!

We wish you the best Jamie!
And as soon as I hear anything... I'll pass it along to the blog!
-Erik

Trick or Treat

Treat for the squirrel..... Trick for the Lawsons!

The Lawson family said that this little guy dug into and cleaned out 2 pumpkins over the span of two days!

Well at least now they are all ready to be carved!

California Wildfires

Today marks the fourth day relentless wildfires are tearing through Southern California. These fires have burned more than 400-thousand acres, and have destroyed more than 1300 homes. So far, the fires have claimed three lives... and have left 40 other people hurt. President Bush has declared this a major disaster area... and this will help bring in federal money to help fire victims. One of our viewers sent us this photo, along with the email below:


This is a picture taken in Saugus, CA where my daughter lives.
It was taken from their porch at noon, and it looks like midnight. The winds were 108 MPH in Saugus at one point.
Thank You,
B.Pence
Spring Valley, OH

One of the more interesting pieces of video to come out of this tragedy... is that of the fire-nado! This is basically an intense tornado-like spinning of the hot air rising above a very large fire. You can see the smoke and flames getting drawn up into the spin... it looks pretty cool! If you haven't seen it yet... check it out on CNN's website: FIRENADO VIDEO

Meantime, back home... another cloudy and cool fall day! Our upper level low is STILL cut-off and spinning to our southwest. Until that low is EAST of us... we will have to deal with the clouds (with some peeks of sun)... spotty light showers... and cooler temps. By Saturday afternoon, though, we should see improvement! The sun is back and things warm up for Sunday and the beginning of next week!



Here is another great Fall Photo taken by Bill Schmidt of Farmersville! This is a beautiful maple at the south of his home... taken last weekend. Thanks, Bill!

Have a great day!
Jamie

Better Late Than Never...

So where was this rain 2-3 months ago... when it was SOOOO hot and we were all begging for it? :) Better late than never! Here is a list of accumulated rainfall all across the Miami Valley:

Beavercreek: 3.7"
Bradford: 1.5"
Camden: 3.7"
Cedarville: 3.1"
Covington: 1.5"
Eaton: 2.3"
Enon: 2.8"

Fairborn: 1.5"
Greenville: 1.4"
Kettering: 3.3"
Middletown: 4.5"
Moraine: 3.1"
Piqua: 1.5"
Sidney: 1.5"
Springfield: 2.7"
Tipp City: 2.3"
Yellow Springs: 2.9"

So where do we stand on rainfall after this huge event? Well, it has done good things for the "drought", that's for sure! We're now almost an inch ABOVE average for the year... and more than THREE inches above average since September 1st! While Cincinnati is in a surplus since September... they still have a 7" defecit going back to January. So the driest weather continues to be to our south...

We will continue with occasional rain overnight into the Wednesday morning drive. Finally, FINALLY... we should dry out for Wednesday afternoon! But the clouds will hang around, as will the cooler temperatures. Expect highs in the upper 50s.

Rain chances return Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning, though as that slow-erratic moving upper level low heads our way! I will leave you with this PICTURE of leaves... from Mike Timmons of Xenia! A beautiful shot!!

I hope you have a great day!
Jamie

Good Soaking Rains

Light-to-moderate rain is lifting into the Dayton area this evening... and it could get heavy as we go through the overnight hours! All good news... because we definitely NEED the rain! A cold front is the cause... and will keep us with the chance of rainy conditions as it moves through overnight into early Tuesday morning.

It does look like we dry out Tuesday afternoon... and we should be dry through Wednesday, as well. Then things get tricky for the end of the week! Remember that slow-moving-upper-level storm we talked about at the end of last week? It's still showing up on the computer models... and it seems the consensus is to have that low track through the area Thursday into Friday. That means the rain chances will go up again as we wrap up the workweek! Here are the solutions suggested by the NAM and GFS, respectively... valid 2am Friday:






Click to enlarge

The NAM has the upper low in Kansas early Friday morning... while the GFS has it *slightly* farther South and East. But overall, the agreement is MUCH better than it was last week, when the NAM wasn't even picking up on this feature! Anyway, ahead of the Low... moisture will once again spread into the Miami Valley... giving us the good chance of rain THU/FRI. And THAT will help enhance the fall color a little for next weekend! Here is the latest from the ODNR for our region:

NEAR PEAK (30 to 60% Color... Sugar Maple, Cottonwoods, Hickory, Ash)
John Bryan (Green County)
Hueston Woods (Preble County)
Buck Creek (Clark County)

CHANGING (Still Mostly Green; 25% Color)
Caesar Creek (Warren County)
Indian Lake (Logan County)

My parents took a drive down near the Ohio River over the weekend.... and said the color was nice around the Miami Valley, but there was a definite cut-off as they went South. The farther they went, the trees were still very green and even brown. The hot, dry summer may have impacted these areas, although peak color is still a couple of weeks away. We'll have to see how things pan out! I would love to see your fall photos!

Here is a BEAUTIFUL shot from Jeanne Casper, one of our viewers!

You can send them to me at:
jjarosik@wdtn.com

Thanks!!
Jamie

Some Interesting New Technology for Meteorologists

Have you ever heard of the NWA? Well last weekend I was lucky enough to go to the National Weather Associations annual meeting in Reno Nevada. The first day of the conference was tailored for broadcasters. Mostly talking about forecasting methods, new studies, and the cooperative effort between broadcasters and the National Weather Service to get information out to the public. The rest of the week focused on different case studies and new instrumentation.

While there are pages and pages of information to write, I thought I would pass along one of the lasted upgrades with radar... in fact its a new kind called dual-polarimetric. Our conventional radars shoot a horizontal beam that measures the return echo. The stronger the echo, the more moisture in the cloud. But the radars of the future will send out two... a horizontal and a vertical beam. The purpose is to see the shape of the droplet in the cloud. For example.... only two objects appear perfectly spherical... tiny water droplets and hail. So if you are looking at a high DBZ echo and see that the items are spherical you know that you are looking at a hail core. With our current technology we use past experience to guesstimate where the hail is, but with this new technology you could actually watch it form in the cloud and move towards the ground... making severe weather forecasting and nowcasting much more accurate.

Some TV stations across the country already have installed these new radars setting a new standard for winter and severe weather nowcasting and while it may take the TV stations in the Miami Valley a while to get on board (these things are extremely expensive), the National Weather Service has just signed a 43 million dollar deal with Barons (makers of the radar) to upgrade existing NWS radars to the dual-pole system. So any luck in another 6-8 years we will all have access to this new Technology!
Using the duel pole system will also lead to the future of radar displays making radars 3D..... An amazing tool for meteorologists to analyse the storm. Theres an example below...
(animating 3-D radar)
http://www.violentskiestours.com/images/technology/gr2a.gif

For more information on Dual-Polarimetric Radar go to
http://www.baronservices.com/

Nice Weekend & A Change Next Week

We had a significant severe weather outbreak from the Gulf Coast States all the way up to the Great Lakes last night... including nearby Indiana and Kentucky. There were 30 tornado reports total... and only one fatality (in Michigan). Here is a look at the damage round-up from the storm:

Click to enlarge

Thankfully, as these storms moved into the Miami Valley, they weakened considerably. We had a few hail/wind reports... but nothing major! I think the time of day had a lot to do with it... the early morning hours are probably the least favorable for storm intensification. We did get a little rain here... about .3" at Dayton International Airport... and about .5" at Wright Brothers Airport.

Right now, we are once again more than an inch below average in rainfall since the beginning of the year. We're also in a defecit for the month... at about .8" below average. BUT next week, we are seeing some interesting signs that we could do some catching-up in the rain department! Some of the models are picking up on a cut-off-low heading our way once again. If this pans out, it could mean several days of rainfall. But remember the old rhyme, "Cut-off Low... Weather person's woe!" because these types of systems are difficult to forecast. We will be watching it... right now it looks like it could begin to affect us with the chance of rain on Tuesday, and lingering chances through the end of the week. We will keep you updated!

Have a great weekend! Erik is back!

Jamie

Severe Weather

Many severe weather parameters are coming together this evening... and we do have an increased risk of strong to severe thunderstorms here in the Miami Valley. There may be a few stronger cells in the Southern viewing area around 9pm... and then we will await the approach of the squall line around midnight.


When we are in a severe weather situation like this, we often turn to the RUC (Rapid Update Cycle) computer model. It is a short-term model... and can be a very good tool when "Nowcasting". Let's take a look at some of the severe weather parameters on the latest run of the RUC. These maps are valid for 2am... First... Helicity:



Click to enlarge


HELICITY is a number derived from Speed Shear (wind speed increases with height).... Directional Shear (wind speed changes direction with height)... AND the strength of the low level wind directly into the speed and directional wind shear. The stronger each of these aspects... the higher the helicity. In the RUC above, our Helicity is in the range of 400 to 500. That is at the high end of the Helicity scale... anything over 400 is pretty significant!


Now, let's look at CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy):


Click to enlarge


CAPE is a measure of instability... a high CAPE means storms will build vertically very quickly. A value between 1 and 1,500 j/kg is what we call "positive CAPE"... and that is what we are seeing on the RUC model above.


Last, we will check out the Lifted Index:


Click to enlarge


The LIFTED INDEX is the difference between an air parcel temperature and the actual temperature at 500 millibars. If the air parcel temperature is warmer than the environmental temperature... we get a negative LI. This is a sign of instability, and the more negative the LI, the stronger the updrafts in thunderstorms will be. In the RUC product above, our LI is a -2 or a -3.


So you can see, many of these aspects would point to a pretty good shot of severe weather tonight! We will be tracking everything on Live Doppler 2X this evening and overnight... so stay with us on Channel 2!


Stay safe,
Jamie

More Rain!

Another storm is strengthening in the Plains... and will head our way for Thursday and Friday. Late tonight into Thursday morning... showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area as a warm front lifts through. Here is what the NAM is forecasting:

Click to enlarge

So the morning commute will probably be a little damp for us... of course Brian Davis will have you covered right here on Channel 2 beginning at 5am!

Then, Thursday afternoon... we will be in what we call the "Warm Sector" of our storm system (between the warm and cold fronts):

Click to enlarge

This is a very unstable part of a storm to be in... and any sunshine will aid in daytime heating... which will further de-stablize the atmosphere. We could climb into the lower 80s, depending on how much sun we see! This could set us up for some severe weather Thursday night. As a matter of fact, the Severe Storm Prediction Center has that Severe Risk right over us:

Click to enlarge

We are expecting a Squall Line to develop and move through the Miami Valley between midnight and 4 or 5 Friday moring. Damaging winds and hail will be the main threats... but we can't rule out an isolated tornado. It is a pretty strong system coming through... our only saving grace, is the time of day the thunderstorms will be coming through (nighttime/early morning hours). But we will be here to monitor the situation, nevertheless! You can stay updated on Channel 2 with Live Doppler 2X... and on http://www.wdtn.com/.

Have a great evening!

Jamie

Today's Rain & September in Review!

As expected, we got some much-needed rain across the area today! Here is a look at some of the rainfall totals from around the Miami Valley:

Bradford: .5"
Covington: .4"
Eaton: .6"
Fairborn: .7"
Farmersville: 0.49"
Greenville: .7"
Kettering: .5"
Middletown: .5"
Moraine: .4"
New Carlisle: .4"
Piqua: .4"
Sidney: .3"
Springboro: .4"
Tipp City: .3"
Xenia: .4"
Yellow Springs: .52"

Now we will have a dry period tonight through much of WEDNESDAY. Look for partly sunny skies WED afternoon, with highs in the mid-70s... it should be a nice day! THEN... the chance of showers and thunderstorms returns for Wednesday night through Friday. We could even see some strong to severe thunderstorms on Thursday night. A squall line is forecast to form to our West, and move in with the potential for gusty winds and hail. We will be tracking it on Live Doppler 2X, and let you know if the timing/intensity changes at all over the next few model runs.

Meantime, NOAA has released a report today titled, "Sept. '07 is 8th Warmest for Contiguous US". Here are some of the highlights:

* The average temperature for September in the US was 67.5 degrees. This makes the month the eighth-warmest September since records have been kept (1895).

* 38 of the 48 contiguous states were warmer than average, and no state was cooler than average for the month. The remaining 10 states were near average.

* Raleigh-Durham International Airport reached a high of 101 degrees on Sept. 10th... the latest date in any calendar year with a maximum daily temperature greater than 100 degrees.

* September's heat helped spread the worsening drought to almost half of the US, with conditions across the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Tennessee Valley hardest hit.

* Drought affected 46-percent of the nation.

* Levels of all the Great Lakes (which make up about 20% of the world's fresh water) have been in decline since the late 1990s. Lakes Huron and Michigan were about two feet below their long-term average levels, while Lake Superior was about 20 inches off, Lake Ontario seven inches blow, and Lake Erie three inches blow normal in September.

Have a great night,
Jamie :)

Rain Chances Increase!

After a few nice fall days across the Miami Valley, we are due for a storm! A storm in the Plains will lift to our North and help to bring a cold front to the Dayton area. This will bring the chance of rain for TUESDAY. You can see the set up forecast by the NAM model:

Click to enlarge

The front is not strong, however... so there will be no big temperature change. We will still be in the 70s on Wednesday! It does look dry Wednesday afternoon... but rain chances return for Thursday and Friday! So a little unsettled this week, to say the least! But we definitely need the rain! We are more than an inch below average for the month of October already!

In other news... the newest member of the Channel 2 News Team makes her debut today!! Michelle Kingsfield will be our new anchor... doing the 5, 10 and 11pm shows with Mark Allan, myself and Jack Pohl! We are very excited to have her, and hope you will tune in. Drop her a line to welcome her to the station... you can find her email address on her bio page. Just go to the "Contact Us" link on our homepage... and then to "WDTN-TV Staff".

I hope you have a fabulous Monday evening!!

Jamie

A Look Ahead...

This week, NOAA issued their winter forecast for the United States. They are calling for above average temperatures for the Dayton area, as well as above average precipitation:








Click to enlarge

So that would mean a wet, mild winter for us. And because of NOAA's forecasted warmer temps, probably not a lot of SNOW. The precipitation events would be more rain/sleet/freezing rain. Keep in mind, when issuing a winter forecast... that it is an overall TREND. It is not going to be warm ALL winter, rather NOAA is saying it will AVERAGE out to be a warm winter.

I would think we'd have a better handle on what the overall winter will hold once we get into the middle part of November. That way, we can see what long range trough/ridge patterns have set up across the country, and go from there. So hang in there, we will try to update you as we go along.

In the meantime, we continue to experience fall weather here in the Dayton area. Today's high was a cool 56 degrees! On Friday morning, we'll likely start off near 40 degrees... that's chilly! And you'll definitely need some layers for Friday Night Football games! Temperatures will be in the lower 50s at kickoff, and will then fall into the 40s.

Have a good one!
Jamie

Fall Has Arrived!

For the past two days, we had RECORD HIGH temperatures here in the Dayton area. Both Sunday and Monday made it into the upper 80s...

RECORD HIGHS
Sunday, Oct. 7th: 89
Monday, Oct. 8th: 88

October has been off to an extremely warm start... as the first 10 days of the month are 13.8 degrees above average! But we still have most of the month to go to even that out a bit.

With the passing of a cold front this morning... the Summerlike weather has now come to an end! We had a few light showers as the front came through-- generally most areas picked up under a tenth of an inch. But... WOW... what a difference in our temperatures! Our offical high for Tuesday has been 76 degrees. Believe it or not, that is still above average for us! Average highs this time of year are actually closer to 67 degrees... almost 10 degrees cooler.

Well, get ready for a swtich to BELOW AVERAGE temperatures for Wednesday through the beginning of the weekend! An upper level low will swing down over Ohio, bringing clouds and even cooler temperatures to the area! You can see the low forecast to sit right over Ohio on Thursday:


Click to enlarge

We will probably even see some light rain showers Thursday, as the main part of the storm moves through. With the clouds and rain around, our highs will be in the 50s.... so if you have been waiting for fall... it's here!!

I hope you enjoy it!
Jamie

Record Heat? Then Changes!

Bloggers... sorry it's been so long!

We have been bad this week with our entries! I guess it's because I was off a day, Brian was off a day, now Erik is off through the weekend... we're all over the place! :) But here is a good explanation of what will happen weather-wise over the next several days...

First, let's take a look at the Upper Level Flow. This is what is happening at 500mb, or about 18,000 feet above us in the atmosphere. Here is the forecast for FRIDAY:



Click to enlarge

There are two major features to focus on. The big RIDGE over the Eastern part of the country... and the big TROUGH over the West.

The Ridge will dominate our weather right through the weekend... bringing us close to some record high temperatures. Here is a look at the record high for each day... and then what we are forecasting:


Click to enlarge

So you can see it will be close! Who else is ready for FALL?? I am sort of sick of the warm weather. October is my favorite month of the year, and unfortunately, I am not getting the enjoyment out of it that I usually do. My husband and I got married in October, and the cool weather with all the leaves changing really reminds me of that day. Well that hasn't happened this month... YET. Things will be changing next week.

Let's now turn to the Trough in the West. That will slowly move our way... the models actually have this becoming a CUT OFF LOW. We say "Cut off Low... Weatherperson's Woe..." because they move slow and irratically (not with the upper flow). But this feature should help bring a pretty strong cold front through next TUES or so... here's a look at the latest GFS for that day... first the upper level flow:


Click to enlarge

And also at the surface, for that same time period:


Click to enlarge

That will bring the chance of rain to the Dayton area... as well as some cooler temperatures. If the upper low hangs out for a day or two, we could have some nice rainy, cool fall days to look forward to! Yes, plural... DAYS! :) I don't know about you, but I am definitely ready!

I have recently received a lot of Baby J questions... so here is a quick update. Everything is still fine! Nothing really to report... I am actually still feeling quite well. I am told I will get really big over the next few weeks, although I already feel huge! It does seem I look bigger on TV. When people see me in person they say I'm not that big... but everyone who strictly sees me on TV thinks I am ready to go into labor!!... LOL! I am not due until November, so let's hope that doesn't happen any time soon.

Today, I received the cutest book from the 4th graders at Southdale Elementary School in Kettering. It's called, "The New Parents Handbook," and the students wrote it, themselves! I absolutely LOVE it! :) Here are just a few of the cute sayings from the book:

"One tip about having a baby is when you try to get the baby to sleep play 'Someone's in the kitchen with Dinah.'"

"If the baby needs changing, make your husband do it."

"By the way, you'll need to buy baby powder, baby oil, air freshners and lots of diapers."

"When your baby cries, it is pretty likely that your baby is bored. So give it stuff to play with, or pick it up and take it to a window so it can look outside."

"If you are trying to calm a baby, try to find out what is wrong. Check the diaper to see if it's wet. Gently pat its back to help the baby burp. Offer the baby something to eat or drink. And make sure the shoes are not too tight."

I hope you enjoyed them as much as I did! Have a great day!
Jamie

New WeatherBug Site!

Hey Bloggers,

Today we have a new Weather Bug site up and running! It's a live camera site stationed at Edwin Smith Elementary school in Oakwood. This site also has our very first "Live" camera so when you see it on air or when you pull it up online the image is up to the second. While most of our cameras are updated every couple of minutes this camera in Oakwood is updated a few times a second! Its just another tool and another set of eyes we can all tap into.

You can access the site and all the others by going to WDTN.com and selecting Weather Bug from the pull down menu under weather.
Or by just clicking on this link.
http://www.wdtn.com/Global/link.asp?L=248820&nav=menu590_3_7

If you are looking for sky cam images just put your cursor over the green dots. A little camera icon will pop up if there is a camera at that specific site.

Hope you all have a great week!
-Erik

Another Month Comes to a Close

Wow!! It's already the end of the September. The first part of this week felt more like the end of the July, but some beautiful fall weather is back today and will linger through the weekend. I had 1.3" of rain in my rain gauge over the past few days so with the cooler temps the grass should make that final spurt for the year over the next couple of weeks. Even Cincy finally got some much needed rain from this last weather system.

The weather looks great for some fall football. I will be checking out the Alter-Carroll game tonight. Our kids are Alter grads and their mother is a Carroll grad so that always makes for some fun in our house. Temps will be in the 60s at kick-off with 50s by the end of the game. Then tomorrow I can look forward to the Purdue-Notre Dame game at Noon. All I can say is BOILER UP! Erik is off this weekend so I'll be covering the weekend weather on Saturday and Jamie will be here on Sunday so we will see you then!

BD

My Rain Dance

Finally after almost 2 weeks we had some scattered showers & thunderstorms this afternoon around the Miami Valley. Some areas mainly along & south of I-70 picked up 1/4-1/2". Unfortunately many of us got no rain at all! Another chance for showers & thunderstorms will come tomorrow as a cold front pushes into the area.

This long stretch of dry weather reminds me of a period of dry weather we had in the late 1980's. Then we went amost 6 weeks without a drop of rain. I was doing a live weather remote one Friday afternoon at a school in Dayton. A young Jim Bucher was my photographer. During the remote Jim suggested I do a rain dance.

I was game... and when we came out of a commerical, I said that I was going to do a rain dance to help us get some much needed rain. I started the dance and went a little crazy with my moves! After a minute or two, I actually threw my back out!! Jim literally had to carry me to the news car to get me back to the station. I was off work for about a week but the very next day & for about 2 more days we got much need rain!!! I refuse to do any more rain dances but we still should see some rain for the next few days. Just in case keep your fingers crossed!!!

Carl

Rain Chances Still There!

We are still seeing a pretty good shot of rain this week! Finally!

There is a slight chance on TUESDAY... in the hot and humid airmass ahead of our cold front. The front will move through on WEDNESDAY... keeping us with the chance of rain! Right now, the models are averaging a quarter to a half inch of rain across the area. Some places could see more with any given thunderstorm... an inch or so would be possible! And yet other locations may not see much at all. We will continue to update the forecast as we go along!

Did you all have a good weekend? It wasn't pretty for the Ohio NFL teams. So are more of you Bengals fans or Browns fans? I am a huge Browns fan... as my family is originally from Cleveland, and it is in my blood! That was a very tough loss yesterday for Cleveland, it almost hurt to watch the last few seconds of the game. If you watched it, you know what I mean. Hopefully next week will be better! :)

Well, that's it from here... we will blog more tomorrow. I will try to get Carl to do one! :)
Jamie

Grudge Match Online...

Hey, guys...
In case you missed the Grudge Match fun... it is now posted on our website! Go to the main weather page here:

MAIN WEATHER PAGE

Scroll down to where it says "Featured Video"... and you will find it there! I hope you get a laugh out of it!! :)

Jamie

Rain Excitement!

Another boring weather day here in the Miami Valley! At least we had some clouds to mix it up a bit, though! But the sunshine will rule the day Friday... and on into the weekend. Warm, above-average temperatures will continue, as well... with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s.

We continue to watch the storm system in the Gulf of Mexico, just off the coast of Florida. This could still develop into a Tropical or Subtropical Storm over the next few days. It looks like this feature will hang out in the Gulf... and then make landfall on the Northern Gulf coast. Eventually... some of the moisture from this storm may get shuttled up into the Miami Valley! This is what we are rooting for... the chance of rain late Monday and into Tuesday... as this moisture interacts with a cold front approaching from the West. Here is a look at the possible scenario via the GFS:




Click to enlarge

And as I mentioned a couple of days ago... we really DO cheer for this stuff. Someone requested a picture... and I am "on your side" with the proof!



Haha... have a good day!
Jamie