JJ Update

Just wanted to pass along the latest news on Jamie!

Jamie had to make an early exit last week because of a fever late Thursday night so she didn't have a chance to say good-bye. She has been under a doctors care but everything is fine, in fact they even monitored the baby for a half hour or so and the doctors said that the baby is doing great! And if I know Jaime at all... she is probably at home reading away brushing up on her parenting skills!

We wish you the best Jamie!
And as soon as I hear anything... I'll pass it along to the blog!
-Erik

Trick or Treat

Treat for the squirrel..... Trick for the Lawsons!

The Lawson family said that this little guy dug into and cleaned out 2 pumpkins over the span of two days!

Well at least now they are all ready to be carved!

California Wildfires

Today marks the fourth day relentless wildfires are tearing through Southern California. These fires have burned more than 400-thousand acres, and have destroyed more than 1300 homes. So far, the fires have claimed three lives... and have left 40 other people hurt. President Bush has declared this a major disaster area... and this will help bring in federal money to help fire victims. One of our viewers sent us this photo, along with the email below:


This is a picture taken in Saugus, CA where my daughter lives.
It was taken from their porch at noon, and it looks like midnight. The winds were 108 MPH in Saugus at one point.
Thank You,
B.Pence
Spring Valley, OH

One of the more interesting pieces of video to come out of this tragedy... is that of the fire-nado! This is basically an intense tornado-like spinning of the hot air rising above a very large fire. You can see the smoke and flames getting drawn up into the spin... it looks pretty cool! If you haven't seen it yet... check it out on CNN's website: FIRENADO VIDEO

Meantime, back home... another cloudy and cool fall day! Our upper level low is STILL cut-off and spinning to our southwest. Until that low is EAST of us... we will have to deal with the clouds (with some peeks of sun)... spotty light showers... and cooler temps. By Saturday afternoon, though, we should see improvement! The sun is back and things warm up for Sunday and the beginning of next week!



Here is another great Fall Photo taken by Bill Schmidt of Farmersville! This is a beautiful maple at the south of his home... taken last weekend. Thanks, Bill!

Have a great day!
Jamie

Better Late Than Never...

So where was this rain 2-3 months ago... when it was SOOOO hot and we were all begging for it? :) Better late than never! Here is a list of accumulated rainfall all across the Miami Valley:

Beavercreek: 3.7"
Bradford: 1.5"
Camden: 3.7"
Cedarville: 3.1"
Covington: 1.5"
Eaton: 2.3"
Enon: 2.8"

Fairborn: 1.5"
Greenville: 1.4"
Kettering: 3.3"
Middletown: 4.5"
Moraine: 3.1"
Piqua: 1.5"
Sidney: 1.5"
Springfield: 2.7"
Tipp City: 2.3"
Yellow Springs: 2.9"

So where do we stand on rainfall after this huge event? Well, it has done good things for the "drought", that's for sure! We're now almost an inch ABOVE average for the year... and more than THREE inches above average since September 1st! While Cincinnati is in a surplus since September... they still have a 7" defecit going back to January. So the driest weather continues to be to our south...

We will continue with occasional rain overnight into the Wednesday morning drive. Finally, FINALLY... we should dry out for Wednesday afternoon! But the clouds will hang around, as will the cooler temperatures. Expect highs in the upper 50s.

Rain chances return Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning, though as that slow-erratic moving upper level low heads our way! I will leave you with this PICTURE of leaves... from Mike Timmons of Xenia! A beautiful shot!!

I hope you have a great day!
Jamie

Good Soaking Rains

Light-to-moderate rain is lifting into the Dayton area this evening... and it could get heavy as we go through the overnight hours! All good news... because we definitely NEED the rain! A cold front is the cause... and will keep us with the chance of rainy conditions as it moves through overnight into early Tuesday morning.

It does look like we dry out Tuesday afternoon... and we should be dry through Wednesday, as well. Then things get tricky for the end of the week! Remember that slow-moving-upper-level storm we talked about at the end of last week? It's still showing up on the computer models... and it seems the consensus is to have that low track through the area Thursday into Friday. That means the rain chances will go up again as we wrap up the workweek! Here are the solutions suggested by the NAM and GFS, respectively... valid 2am Friday:






Click to enlarge

The NAM has the upper low in Kansas early Friday morning... while the GFS has it *slightly* farther South and East. But overall, the agreement is MUCH better than it was last week, when the NAM wasn't even picking up on this feature! Anyway, ahead of the Low... moisture will once again spread into the Miami Valley... giving us the good chance of rain THU/FRI. And THAT will help enhance the fall color a little for next weekend! Here is the latest from the ODNR for our region:

NEAR PEAK (30 to 60% Color... Sugar Maple, Cottonwoods, Hickory, Ash)
John Bryan (Green County)
Hueston Woods (Preble County)
Buck Creek (Clark County)

CHANGING (Still Mostly Green; 25% Color)
Caesar Creek (Warren County)
Indian Lake (Logan County)

My parents took a drive down near the Ohio River over the weekend.... and said the color was nice around the Miami Valley, but there was a definite cut-off as they went South. The farther they went, the trees were still very green and even brown. The hot, dry summer may have impacted these areas, although peak color is still a couple of weeks away. We'll have to see how things pan out! I would love to see your fall photos!

Here is a BEAUTIFUL shot from Jeanne Casper, one of our viewers!

You can send them to me at:
jjarosik@wdtn.com

Thanks!!
Jamie

Some Interesting New Technology for Meteorologists

Have you ever heard of the NWA? Well last weekend I was lucky enough to go to the National Weather Associations annual meeting in Reno Nevada. The first day of the conference was tailored for broadcasters. Mostly talking about forecasting methods, new studies, and the cooperative effort between broadcasters and the National Weather Service to get information out to the public. The rest of the week focused on different case studies and new instrumentation.

While there are pages and pages of information to write, I thought I would pass along one of the lasted upgrades with radar... in fact its a new kind called dual-polarimetric. Our conventional radars shoot a horizontal beam that measures the return echo. The stronger the echo, the more moisture in the cloud. But the radars of the future will send out two... a horizontal and a vertical beam. The purpose is to see the shape of the droplet in the cloud. For example.... only two objects appear perfectly spherical... tiny water droplets and hail. So if you are looking at a high DBZ echo and see that the items are spherical you know that you are looking at a hail core. With our current technology we use past experience to guesstimate where the hail is, but with this new technology you could actually watch it form in the cloud and move towards the ground... making severe weather forecasting and nowcasting much more accurate.

Some TV stations across the country already have installed these new radars setting a new standard for winter and severe weather nowcasting and while it may take the TV stations in the Miami Valley a while to get on board (these things are extremely expensive), the National Weather Service has just signed a 43 million dollar deal with Barons (makers of the radar) to upgrade existing NWS radars to the dual-pole system. So any luck in another 6-8 years we will all have access to this new Technology!
Using the duel pole system will also lead to the future of radar displays making radars 3D..... An amazing tool for meteorologists to analyse the storm. Theres an example below...
(animating 3-D radar)
http://www.violentskiestours.com/images/technology/gr2a.gif

For more information on Dual-Polarimetric Radar go to
http://www.baronservices.com/

Nice Weekend & A Change Next Week

We had a significant severe weather outbreak from the Gulf Coast States all the way up to the Great Lakes last night... including nearby Indiana and Kentucky. There were 30 tornado reports total... and only one fatality (in Michigan). Here is a look at the damage round-up from the storm:

Click to enlarge

Thankfully, as these storms moved into the Miami Valley, they weakened considerably. We had a few hail/wind reports... but nothing major! I think the time of day had a lot to do with it... the early morning hours are probably the least favorable for storm intensification. We did get a little rain here... about .3" at Dayton International Airport... and about .5" at Wright Brothers Airport.

Right now, we are once again more than an inch below average in rainfall since the beginning of the year. We're also in a defecit for the month... at about .8" below average. BUT next week, we are seeing some interesting signs that we could do some catching-up in the rain department! Some of the models are picking up on a cut-off-low heading our way once again. If this pans out, it could mean several days of rainfall. But remember the old rhyme, "Cut-off Low... Weather person's woe!" because these types of systems are difficult to forecast. We will be watching it... right now it looks like it could begin to affect us with the chance of rain on Tuesday, and lingering chances through the end of the week. We will keep you updated!

Have a great weekend! Erik is back!

Jamie

Severe Weather

Many severe weather parameters are coming together this evening... and we do have an increased risk of strong to severe thunderstorms here in the Miami Valley. There may be a few stronger cells in the Southern viewing area around 9pm... and then we will await the approach of the squall line around midnight.


When we are in a severe weather situation like this, we often turn to the RUC (Rapid Update Cycle) computer model. It is a short-term model... and can be a very good tool when "Nowcasting". Let's take a look at some of the severe weather parameters on the latest run of the RUC. These maps are valid for 2am... First... Helicity:



Click to enlarge


HELICITY is a number derived from Speed Shear (wind speed increases with height).... Directional Shear (wind speed changes direction with height)... AND the strength of the low level wind directly into the speed and directional wind shear. The stronger each of these aspects... the higher the helicity. In the RUC above, our Helicity is in the range of 400 to 500. That is at the high end of the Helicity scale... anything over 400 is pretty significant!


Now, let's look at CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy):


Click to enlarge


CAPE is a measure of instability... a high CAPE means storms will build vertically very quickly. A value between 1 and 1,500 j/kg is what we call "positive CAPE"... and that is what we are seeing on the RUC model above.


Last, we will check out the Lifted Index:


Click to enlarge


The LIFTED INDEX is the difference between an air parcel temperature and the actual temperature at 500 millibars. If the air parcel temperature is warmer than the environmental temperature... we get a negative LI. This is a sign of instability, and the more negative the LI, the stronger the updrafts in thunderstorms will be. In the RUC product above, our LI is a -2 or a -3.


So you can see, many of these aspects would point to a pretty good shot of severe weather tonight! We will be tracking everything on Live Doppler 2X this evening and overnight... so stay with us on Channel 2!


Stay safe,
Jamie

More Rain!

Another storm is strengthening in the Plains... and will head our way for Thursday and Friday. Late tonight into Thursday morning... showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area as a warm front lifts through. Here is what the NAM is forecasting:

Click to enlarge

So the morning commute will probably be a little damp for us... of course Brian Davis will have you covered right here on Channel 2 beginning at 5am!

Then, Thursday afternoon... we will be in what we call the "Warm Sector" of our storm system (between the warm and cold fronts):

Click to enlarge

This is a very unstable part of a storm to be in... and any sunshine will aid in daytime heating... which will further de-stablize the atmosphere. We could climb into the lower 80s, depending on how much sun we see! This could set us up for some severe weather Thursday night. As a matter of fact, the Severe Storm Prediction Center has that Severe Risk right over us:

Click to enlarge

We are expecting a Squall Line to develop and move through the Miami Valley between midnight and 4 or 5 Friday moring. Damaging winds and hail will be the main threats... but we can't rule out an isolated tornado. It is a pretty strong system coming through... our only saving grace, is the time of day the thunderstorms will be coming through (nighttime/early morning hours). But we will be here to monitor the situation, nevertheless! You can stay updated on Channel 2 with Live Doppler 2X... and on http://www.wdtn.com/.

Have a great evening!

Jamie

Today's Rain & September in Review!

As expected, we got some much-needed rain across the area today! Here is a look at some of the rainfall totals from around the Miami Valley:

Bradford: .5"
Covington: .4"
Eaton: .6"
Fairborn: .7"
Farmersville: 0.49"
Greenville: .7"
Kettering: .5"
Middletown: .5"
Moraine: .4"
New Carlisle: .4"
Piqua: .4"
Sidney: .3"
Springboro: .4"
Tipp City: .3"
Xenia: .4"
Yellow Springs: .52"

Now we will have a dry period tonight through much of WEDNESDAY. Look for partly sunny skies WED afternoon, with highs in the mid-70s... it should be a nice day! THEN... the chance of showers and thunderstorms returns for Wednesday night through Friday. We could even see some strong to severe thunderstorms on Thursday night. A squall line is forecast to form to our West, and move in with the potential for gusty winds and hail. We will be tracking it on Live Doppler 2X, and let you know if the timing/intensity changes at all over the next few model runs.

Meantime, NOAA has released a report today titled, "Sept. '07 is 8th Warmest for Contiguous US". Here are some of the highlights:

* The average temperature for September in the US was 67.5 degrees. This makes the month the eighth-warmest September since records have been kept (1895).

* 38 of the 48 contiguous states were warmer than average, and no state was cooler than average for the month. The remaining 10 states were near average.

* Raleigh-Durham International Airport reached a high of 101 degrees on Sept. 10th... the latest date in any calendar year with a maximum daily temperature greater than 100 degrees.

* September's heat helped spread the worsening drought to almost half of the US, with conditions across the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Tennessee Valley hardest hit.

* Drought affected 46-percent of the nation.

* Levels of all the Great Lakes (which make up about 20% of the world's fresh water) have been in decline since the late 1990s. Lakes Huron and Michigan were about two feet below their long-term average levels, while Lake Superior was about 20 inches off, Lake Ontario seven inches blow, and Lake Erie three inches blow normal in September.

Have a great night,
Jamie :)

Rain Chances Increase!

After a few nice fall days across the Miami Valley, we are due for a storm! A storm in the Plains will lift to our North and help to bring a cold front to the Dayton area. This will bring the chance of rain for TUESDAY. You can see the set up forecast by the NAM model:

Click to enlarge

The front is not strong, however... so there will be no big temperature change. We will still be in the 70s on Wednesday! It does look dry Wednesday afternoon... but rain chances return for Thursday and Friday! So a little unsettled this week, to say the least! But we definitely need the rain! We are more than an inch below average for the month of October already!

In other news... the newest member of the Channel 2 News Team makes her debut today!! Michelle Kingsfield will be our new anchor... doing the 5, 10 and 11pm shows with Mark Allan, myself and Jack Pohl! We are very excited to have her, and hope you will tune in. Drop her a line to welcome her to the station... you can find her email address on her bio page. Just go to the "Contact Us" link on our homepage... and then to "WDTN-TV Staff".

I hope you have a fabulous Monday evening!!

Jamie

A Look Ahead...

This week, NOAA issued their winter forecast for the United States. They are calling for above average temperatures for the Dayton area, as well as above average precipitation:








Click to enlarge

So that would mean a wet, mild winter for us. And because of NOAA's forecasted warmer temps, probably not a lot of SNOW. The precipitation events would be more rain/sleet/freezing rain. Keep in mind, when issuing a winter forecast... that it is an overall TREND. It is not going to be warm ALL winter, rather NOAA is saying it will AVERAGE out to be a warm winter.

I would think we'd have a better handle on what the overall winter will hold once we get into the middle part of November. That way, we can see what long range trough/ridge patterns have set up across the country, and go from there. So hang in there, we will try to update you as we go along.

In the meantime, we continue to experience fall weather here in the Dayton area. Today's high was a cool 56 degrees! On Friday morning, we'll likely start off near 40 degrees... that's chilly! And you'll definitely need some layers for Friday Night Football games! Temperatures will be in the lower 50s at kickoff, and will then fall into the 40s.

Have a good one!
Jamie

Fall Has Arrived!

For the past two days, we had RECORD HIGH temperatures here in the Dayton area. Both Sunday and Monday made it into the upper 80s...

RECORD HIGHS
Sunday, Oct. 7th: 89
Monday, Oct. 8th: 88

October has been off to an extremely warm start... as the first 10 days of the month are 13.8 degrees above average! But we still have most of the month to go to even that out a bit.

With the passing of a cold front this morning... the Summerlike weather has now come to an end! We had a few light showers as the front came through-- generally most areas picked up under a tenth of an inch. But... WOW... what a difference in our temperatures! Our offical high for Tuesday has been 76 degrees. Believe it or not, that is still above average for us! Average highs this time of year are actually closer to 67 degrees... almost 10 degrees cooler.

Well, get ready for a swtich to BELOW AVERAGE temperatures for Wednesday through the beginning of the weekend! An upper level low will swing down over Ohio, bringing clouds and even cooler temperatures to the area! You can see the low forecast to sit right over Ohio on Thursday:


Click to enlarge

We will probably even see some light rain showers Thursday, as the main part of the storm moves through. With the clouds and rain around, our highs will be in the 50s.... so if you have been waiting for fall... it's here!!

I hope you enjoy it!
Jamie

Record Heat? Then Changes!

Bloggers... sorry it's been so long!

We have been bad this week with our entries! I guess it's because I was off a day, Brian was off a day, now Erik is off through the weekend... we're all over the place! :) But here is a good explanation of what will happen weather-wise over the next several days...

First, let's take a look at the Upper Level Flow. This is what is happening at 500mb, or about 18,000 feet above us in the atmosphere. Here is the forecast for FRIDAY:



Click to enlarge

There are two major features to focus on. The big RIDGE over the Eastern part of the country... and the big TROUGH over the West.

The Ridge will dominate our weather right through the weekend... bringing us close to some record high temperatures. Here is a look at the record high for each day... and then what we are forecasting:


Click to enlarge

So you can see it will be close! Who else is ready for FALL?? I am sort of sick of the warm weather. October is my favorite month of the year, and unfortunately, I am not getting the enjoyment out of it that I usually do. My husband and I got married in October, and the cool weather with all the leaves changing really reminds me of that day. Well that hasn't happened this month... YET. Things will be changing next week.

Let's now turn to the Trough in the West. That will slowly move our way... the models actually have this becoming a CUT OFF LOW. We say "Cut off Low... Weatherperson's Woe..." because they move slow and irratically (not with the upper flow). But this feature should help bring a pretty strong cold front through next TUES or so... here's a look at the latest GFS for that day... first the upper level flow:


Click to enlarge

And also at the surface, for that same time period:


Click to enlarge

That will bring the chance of rain to the Dayton area... as well as some cooler temperatures. If the upper low hangs out for a day or two, we could have some nice rainy, cool fall days to look forward to! Yes, plural... DAYS! :) I don't know about you, but I am definitely ready!

I have recently received a lot of Baby J questions... so here is a quick update. Everything is still fine! Nothing really to report... I am actually still feeling quite well. I am told I will get really big over the next few weeks, although I already feel huge! It does seem I look bigger on TV. When people see me in person they say I'm not that big... but everyone who strictly sees me on TV thinks I am ready to go into labor!!... LOL! I am not due until November, so let's hope that doesn't happen any time soon.

Today, I received the cutest book from the 4th graders at Southdale Elementary School in Kettering. It's called, "The New Parents Handbook," and the students wrote it, themselves! I absolutely LOVE it! :) Here are just a few of the cute sayings from the book:

"One tip about having a baby is when you try to get the baby to sleep play 'Someone's in the kitchen with Dinah.'"

"If the baby needs changing, make your husband do it."

"By the way, you'll need to buy baby powder, baby oil, air freshners and lots of diapers."

"When your baby cries, it is pretty likely that your baby is bored. So give it stuff to play with, or pick it up and take it to a window so it can look outside."

"If you are trying to calm a baby, try to find out what is wrong. Check the diaper to see if it's wet. Gently pat its back to help the baby burp. Offer the baby something to eat or drink. And make sure the shoes are not too tight."

I hope you enjoyed them as much as I did! Have a great day!
Jamie

New WeatherBug Site!

Hey Bloggers,

Today we have a new Weather Bug site up and running! It's a live camera site stationed at Edwin Smith Elementary school in Oakwood. This site also has our very first "Live" camera so when you see it on air or when you pull it up online the image is up to the second. While most of our cameras are updated every couple of minutes this camera in Oakwood is updated a few times a second! Its just another tool and another set of eyes we can all tap into.

You can access the site and all the others by going to WDTN.com and selecting Weather Bug from the pull down menu under weather.
Or by just clicking on this link.
http://www.wdtn.com/Global/link.asp?L=248820&nav=menu590_3_7

If you are looking for sky cam images just put your cursor over the green dots. A little camera icon will pop up if there is a camera at that specific site.

Hope you all have a great week!
-Erik