Another Month Comes to a Close

Wow!! It's already the end of the September. The first part of this week felt more like the end of the July, but some beautiful fall weather is back today and will linger through the weekend. I had 1.3" of rain in my rain gauge over the past few days so with the cooler temps the grass should make that final spurt for the year over the next couple of weeks. Even Cincy finally got some much needed rain from this last weather system.

The weather looks great for some fall football. I will be checking out the Alter-Carroll game tonight. Our kids are Alter grads and their mother is a Carroll grad so that always makes for some fun in our house. Temps will be in the 60s at kick-off with 50s by the end of the game. Then tomorrow I can look forward to the Purdue-Notre Dame game at Noon. All I can say is BOILER UP! Erik is off this weekend so I'll be covering the weekend weather on Saturday and Jamie will be here on Sunday so we will see you then!

BD

My Rain Dance

Finally after almost 2 weeks we had some scattered showers & thunderstorms this afternoon around the Miami Valley. Some areas mainly along & south of I-70 picked up 1/4-1/2". Unfortunately many of us got no rain at all! Another chance for showers & thunderstorms will come tomorrow as a cold front pushes into the area.

This long stretch of dry weather reminds me of a period of dry weather we had in the late 1980's. Then we went amost 6 weeks without a drop of rain. I was doing a live weather remote one Friday afternoon at a school in Dayton. A young Jim Bucher was my photographer. During the remote Jim suggested I do a rain dance.

I was game... and when we came out of a commerical, I said that I was going to do a rain dance to help us get some much needed rain. I started the dance and went a little crazy with my moves! After a minute or two, I actually threw my back out!! Jim literally had to carry me to the news car to get me back to the station. I was off work for about a week but the very next day & for about 2 more days we got much need rain!!! I refuse to do any more rain dances but we still should see some rain for the next few days. Just in case keep your fingers crossed!!!

Carl

Rain Chances Still There!

We are still seeing a pretty good shot of rain this week! Finally!

There is a slight chance on TUESDAY... in the hot and humid airmass ahead of our cold front. The front will move through on WEDNESDAY... keeping us with the chance of rain! Right now, the models are averaging a quarter to a half inch of rain across the area. Some places could see more with any given thunderstorm... an inch or so would be possible! And yet other locations may not see much at all. We will continue to update the forecast as we go along!

Did you all have a good weekend? It wasn't pretty for the Ohio NFL teams. So are more of you Bengals fans or Browns fans? I am a huge Browns fan... as my family is originally from Cleveland, and it is in my blood! That was a very tough loss yesterday for Cleveland, it almost hurt to watch the last few seconds of the game. If you watched it, you know what I mean. Hopefully next week will be better! :)

Well, that's it from here... we will blog more tomorrow. I will try to get Carl to do one! :)
Jamie

Grudge Match Online...

Hey, guys...
In case you missed the Grudge Match fun... it is now posted on our website! Go to the main weather page here:

MAIN WEATHER PAGE

Scroll down to where it says "Featured Video"... and you will find it there! I hope you get a laugh out of it!! :)

Jamie

Rain Excitement!

Another boring weather day here in the Miami Valley! At least we had some clouds to mix it up a bit, though! But the sunshine will rule the day Friday... and on into the weekend. Warm, above-average temperatures will continue, as well... with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s.

We continue to watch the storm system in the Gulf of Mexico, just off the coast of Florida. This could still develop into a Tropical or Subtropical Storm over the next few days. It looks like this feature will hang out in the Gulf... and then make landfall on the Northern Gulf coast. Eventually... some of the moisture from this storm may get shuttled up into the Miami Valley! This is what we are rooting for... the chance of rain late Monday and into Tuesday... as this moisture interacts with a cold front approaching from the West. Here is a look at the possible scenario via the GFS:




Click to enlarge

And as I mentioned a couple of days ago... we really DO cheer for this stuff. Someone requested a picture... and I am "on your side" with the proof!



Haha... have a good day!
Jamie

Boring Weather...

Yes, it's here again... a boring stretch of weather! High pressure is still in control, and we will continue to see sunny, warm conditions really through next weekend.

There is a WEAK cold front that will be dropping in on Thursday. This *could* bring a spotty shower to the area, but it will be so moisture-starved, that the chances just aren't that great.

One thing we are watching is a disturbance that will move from east to west over the state of Florida. This feature will likely end up in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the weekend. It may strengthen into Subtropical or a Tropical Storm... and it *could* bring moisture back to the Dayton area during the first half of next week. Here in the Live Doppler 2X Forecast Center, we are rooting for this, because we need the rain!! Can't you just picture Carl sitting here cheering, as he looks at the daily weather models? I swear, it's true... and it is quite a sight! ;)

Anyway, because of the quiet weather, I was able to go out on a shoot with Bucher today (Carl did the 5pm weathercast for me). We were shooting a Grudge Match episode, due to air this Friday during the 6pm news. It promises to have that "Bucher Goofiness"... I don't want to give it away... but tune in to watch! The teams featured are the Carlisle Indians, and the Northridge Polar Bears!

Have a great Wednesday!
Jamie

Chilly Start on Sunday!

Saturday night was a cold one... Dayton international airport made it down to 43, just five degrees away from the record of 38 set in 1902. We would have been colder but a few clouds that moved in late kept us a little warmer.

Along with the cold temperatures, we had a spectacular sunrise. We had reds, purples, and even what looked like a rainbow in Bill Gards Photo taken in Fountain City Indiana (pictured below). While its hard to tell from the picture, my best guess would be that the sun was just under the horizon and to the right of the rainbow making this more of a halo. Either way, beautiful picture... I'm just happy that things are going to warm up a little over the next few days!

Saturday Night Lows



Bellefontaine -46
Clifton -38
Covington -41
Englewood -40
Jamestown -45
Kettering -41
New Madison -38
Springboro -42
Springfield -42
Saint Henry -42
Urbana -39
Wilmington -40
Yellow Springs -43

COOL Weekend!

Greetings, Bloggers!

Well, the cold front is through... the winds have picked up... and temperatures are falling! We went from the 80s this afternoon... to the 50s by 10pm. And we'll actually bottom out tonight in the mid 40s!

Saturday afternoon, our highs will be 20 degrees cooler than they were on Friday... in the lower 60s. It will really feel like Fall! (By the way, Fall officially begins next Sunday!)

The autumn chill will be with us the whole weekend, with Sunday's morning temperatures in the LOWER 40s, and another afternoon in the 60s.

Then a warming trend next week, as we should be back into the 80s by Tuesday. No rain for the next 6 days or so. It looks like we could see some spotty showers by the end of next week... ahead of our next front... but nothing until then...

Carl and I have been talking about adding percentages with rainfall. Is that something you would be interested in seeing? We would mainly just use them on the 7-day forecast, and it would be a way for you to see how much confidence we had in any given rain-chance. A 30% chance of rain means there is a 30% chance that measureable rain will fall in the viewing area. Please let us know what you think, by dropping us an email, or commenting below.

In the tropics... Tropical Storm Ingrid has formed! The storm is currently in the Atlantic Ocean, and is not expected to affect land for the next several days. This one isn't very strong, and it will likely weaken back into a depression, because there is too much wind shear (the upper-level winds are too strong). But it's something we'll have to watch!

I hope you enjoy your weekends!
Jamie

Wednesday Evening Blog

I know, I know... What a boring title for a blog! I am just not feeling creative tonight, I guess! ;)

The weather is looking interesting, though! Our first stop is the Gulf of Mexico, where Tropical Storm Humberto formed this afternoon. The center of the storm is located just off the Texas coast late this evening... about 30 miles south of Galveston, TX. Here is the radar image below... I put a red dot approximately where Galveston is:

Click to enlarge

Winds have been sustained around 50 mph this evening, and rainfall amounts could exceed 5 to 10 inches in parts of Texas and Louisiana.

Meantime, we are dealing with dry conditions again, here in the Miami Valley. But what nice weather it has been! Today we started off in the upper 40s... and climbed to just above 70 degrees this afternoon. Thursday and Friday, we'll experience a warming trend... ahead of our next cold front.

The front will reach us by Friday afternoon... brining a *slight* chance of a few spotty showers. The one BIG thing we'll notice with this front is the COOLER air that will build in behind it for the weekend. Take a look at these 850mb temps forecast for Saturday:

Click to enlarge

That is the 0° isotherm on us! Granted, that is about 5,000 feet up in the atmosphere... but it is a great way to track warm/cold airmasses... and we'll definitely feel like FALL this weekend! A nice chill will be in the air!

Jamie

A Return to Autumn

After the past 5 to 6 weeks with temperatures running well above normal, things are changing today. The first of a series of cool fronts has moved through and 40s are in the forecast for tonight. Frost and Freeze warning are in effect tonight for northern Minnesota as those first surges of significantly cooler air push into the U.S. By the weekend, temperatures could be running quite a bit below normal with the possiblility of even a few 30s for overnight lows in parts of Ohio. Stay tuned....

Story behind video below...

So tonight, as I am doing weather for the 11pm news on Channel 2... I notice, out of the corner of my eye... a HUGE bug crawling on the floor, along the weather wall. Now, I am extremely FREAKED OUT by big bugs! But somehow I managed to make it through the 3-minute weathercast without a peep. :) After I finished at the anchor desk, I walked back to the wall to find the creepy critter... but it is in hiding. Now for the rest of the WEEK... I will be looking/worried/thinking about it!!!! Sigh.

All of this reminded Mark Allan of the infamous Weatherman vs. Cockroach video! Have you seen it? If not... I posted it below!!! :)

Enjoy!
Jamie

Weather Man vs. Cockroach

Lots of Rain.... and Even some Butterflies

Jamie and all you other allergy sufferers... Hope that rain on Saturday night helped take some of that ragweed out of the air!!!

Personally I cant remember the last time we had three days in the row with decent rains. At Dayton International Airport we had .6" on Friday .92" on Saturday and 2.12" on Sunday equalling a total of 3.64" . But some of our weather checkers came in with some other impressive amounts.

Barb in Union reported 4.2"

Vicki in New Carlisle reported 3.00"

Vanderpool Family in Enon reported 2.5"

Jim in Eaton reported 2.35"

Lowell in Greenville reported 2.29"

Barbara in Kettering reported 2.00"

Dennis in Cedarville reported 1.66"

Greg in Yellow Springs reported 1.15"

Pam Helton, one of our viewers from Springfield also sent in some pictures she took during the storm. Here is her email with some neat pictures!

"I have a pic for you....we have the Monarchs in our trees....hundreds of them...they were migrating south when the storms hit Sat. night...so they took refuge in the trees....we went out in the yard just as the storm hit and they were everywhere...hundreds of em....never seen anything like it.

This was the most amazing thing I have ever seen.
Hope you can use these pictures."

Again... some amazing pictures Pam.. thanks for sending them in!

Hope everyone has a great week!

-Erik

Let's get some RAIN!!!

Dear Ragweed Pollen,
Please go away!
Thanks,
Jamie (and many other Miami Valley allergy sufferers!)

Sorry... had to get that in there! If you haven't noticed... I sound a little different, thanks to the allergies. I grew up here in the Miami Valley, and always had allergies in the late summer/early fall. For some reason, they were MIA the past 4 years or so... but now they are back in full-force! AND at a time that I can't really take anything powerful to fight them! We need a freeze! :)

While a freeze is not in the 7-day forecast... rain IS! And starting late tomorrow and continuing through early next week, we could see some heavier amounts... which would definitely be welcome across the area. First, a cold front will come through on Saturday... then lift back north as a warm front on Sunday. THEN another (stronger) cold front will reach us by Tuesday. So many rain chances are there! Here are the NAM and GFS forecasts below... each predicting some good rain for the region:



Click each image to enlarge

This is 60-hour rainfall, ending Tuesday afternoon. Notice how the NAM has the bullseye of heavy rain in the Southern viewing area, and the GFS has it in the Northern viewing area. Where will it really set up? This is something we will be tracking over the next couple of days, so stay tuned!

There is a lot going on around the Miami Valley this weekend... the Popcorn Festival in Beavercreek... the Greek Festival in Dayton... the Sons of Italy Fall Food Festa in Kettering... the Apple Festival in Sidney... so much to choose from! Hopefully there will be some nice dry periods in between the showers so we can enjoy all these activities!

Have a good one!
Jamie

Hot August and When Will it Rain?!

The numbers are in... and it certainly was a very warm August! Dayton had an average August temperature of 76.9 degrees... which makes this August t he 10th warmest on record! And September has certainly started off on a hot note... upper 80s yesterday, and 90-degrees today! We can expect the heat to continue through the end of the week. The humidity will also start to come up by Thurs/Fri... and that means the next rain chance isn't too far behind...

A very slow moving cold front will be heading our way. This front will reach us over the weekend, bringing the chance of rain back to the area. Here is the NAM model for Friday evening...

Click to enlarge

You can see the cold front to our Northwest. Like I mentioned, it is a slow-mover. One of the reasons... check out the big LOW in the Atlantic! This *could* become another named storm! We will have to watch it, as some models have it pegged to become a Tropical or Subtropical Storm. Anyway, it could also slow our front down even MORE... so it is something to keep an eye on.

One of our engineers/directors... MackPostell took some pictures of the "Day of Caring" we participated in. This was last week, when people from Channel 2 went out to Fairview School in Dayton... and helped them out by doing landscaping, painting, etc. What a great project! Anyway, Mack is a great photographer, and captured the day perfectly. Here are just a few snapshots:

Have a good one!

Jamie

Another Cat. 5 in the Caribean

As of 8pm Sunday Felix was upgraded (in a special advisory) to a category 5 Hurricane with winds of 167 mph. The second Cat. 5 storm to develop in the span of two weeks.

(I included the National Hurricane Centers forecast discussion below)

Hurricanes are funny things... they need to develop in extremely tranquil conditions... any little eddy or system in the atmosphere can weaken them substantially. That's also part of the reason why Felix looks so scary... With a well defined eye, perfect symmetry of the system, and outflow showing no signs of any atmospheric distortion Felix will remain a major hurricane until landfall. What is also so interesting about this system is that it is using the exact same track of water Dean used 2 weeks ago. Usually another Cat 5 system would churn up the waters enough to keep ocean surface temperatures a little cooler inhibiting the formation of another Cat 5 system. Obviously this time this is not the case....

Here is the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Below is the forecast discussion from the National Hurricane Center...

Caribbean REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX HAS INTENSIFIED AND IS NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 152 KT...WITH PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 142 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. HIGHER SFMR WINDS WERE FOUND IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...UP TO 163 KT...BUT THESE MAY HAVE BEEN CONTAMINATED BY GROUPEL. A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT LANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND THIS DROP YIELDED A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 139 KT BASED ON THE LOWEST 150 M LAYER AVERAGE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE PEAK SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT LEAST 145 KT. AN EYE SONDE MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 936 MB WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 24 KT. BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME TURBULENCE AND GROUPEL THAT THE AIRCRAFT EXPERIENCED...THE MISSION IS BEING ABORTED AND THE AIRCRAFT IS RETURNING TO ST. CROIX. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE BEING MADE. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.