Winter Storm!

A WINTER STORM WARNING has been issued for the entire Channel 2 viewing area for tonight through Friday at 6pm. The storm will move in late this evening and will continue to affect us through much of Friday. It is a complicated forecast!! Here is what we are expecting...

9 to 11pm... Snow moves in. The later this happens, the less accumulation. If it happens REALLY late... we will skip the snow phase alltogether in Dayton.

Midnight-3am... A switch-over from snow to sleet to freezing rain. This will happen from South to North as warmer air is pulled into the region. We will likely see freezing rain much of overnight period, and travel will become hazardous!

6 to 8am... Some places could even see a switch over from freezing rain to RAIN... as temperatures approach (and possibly come just above) the freezing mark. This would help to melt whatever snow/ice is out there... but things will still be MESSY!

We made some graphics to help illustrate the timeline of the storm, and we will be showing them this evening... so be sure to watch!

As for snow/ice totals... we are going with:
3 to 5" North
1 to 2" Dayton and surrounding areas... with up to a half-inch ice accum.
Less than 1" South towards Cincinnati

One thing to keep in mind with this storm... we are in a critical position, regarding the storm's track. It looks like enough warm air will move in to switch the precip over rather quickly. Even a slight change in the speed or track of the storm, and the forecast will change!

New data comes in this evening... so stay tuned....
Jamie

Developing Storm

Just a quick one tonight... as another storm is developing in the Southern Plains! This will move in THURS NIGHT and will bring a chance of wintery weather to the Miami Valley!

We do have a WINTER STORM WATCH in effect for most of the viewing area. (Preble, Montgomery and Greene counties northward). It looks like most of the snow accumulation will be in our northern counties... Mercer, Auglaize, northern Darke, Shelby... with lesser amounts South. But in the South we will have to deal with sleet and freezing rain!

The PATH of the storm is critical to how much snow/ice accumulation we will see. If it goes farther Northwest... we will see more icy stuff... if it goes farther Southeast... we will see more snow. Right now, I am leaning towards the more icy solution for DAYTON. Our precip will likely start as snow THURS EVENING (8 to 10pm)... then switch over to sleet/freezing rain for a good part of the night in Dayton. North will still see more snow. Will try to update the situation tomorrow... be sure to watch the newscasts as we track this next storm!

Jamie

Front Through... Now COLD

Did you hear that Arctic Front come through, or what?! Wow! Our winds were howling... and easily gusting to 50 mph. Carl and I watched it from the backdoor... the rain was horizontal for about 3 or 4 minutes here at the station! There are widespread reports of tree limbs and powerlines down throughout the viewing area.

Here is a look at the peak wind gusts from some of our WeatherBug stations:

Maria Stein, Mercer Co: 47 mph
Fairfield, Butler Co: 53 mph
New Madison, Darke Co: 45 mph
Winchester, Randolph Co (IN): 48 mph
Urbana, Champaign Co: 52 mph
Springfield, Clark Co: 51 mph
Jamestown, Green Co: 47 mph

Now we turn our attention to the COLD AIR those winds are bringing in! A WIND ADVISORY is in effect, as we will likely continue to see gusts 45-50 mph overnight. Temperatures are plummeting behind the front... Indianapolis went from 54 degrees at 6pm to 19 degrees at 10pm... 35 degrees in 4 hours!! And another amazing statistic... St. Louis had a high of 73 degrees at 1pm today, and they are currently 16. WOW!!!!

Anyway, As you head out the door in the morning... we'll be in the teens... with wind-chill values below zero. We will see some of the water freeze up as our temperatures drop, so the morning commute could be a little slippery. We will have extensive coverage on 2 News Sunrise... beginning at 5am.

Now we're watching another storm... THURSDAY NIGHT into FRIDAY. Could we see some snow accumulation?? That is what we'll be tracking all week... be sure to watch!!

Jamie

Wild Ride!

We are in for a wild weather ride as we head through TUESDAY into TUESDAY NIGHT. Another Arctic Cold Front will be moving through Dayton, and that means a HUGE drop in temperatures in a matter of HOURS. First, let's take a look at what is going on AHEAD of the front.

We are unseasonably mild! Highs today made it into the mid-40s across the area, and we can expect to be near 50 TUESDAY afternoon. Moisture is moving in ahead of our cold front, and we have seen some light rain around this evening. This is what LIVE DOPPLER 2X looked like at 5:45pm... click the image to see the current radar:

Rain will likely continue TUESDAY morning and afternoon, with the mild air in place. We will see scattered showers, with some periods of dry weather. But during the evening, as the cold front approaches... there is a chance of THUNDERSTORMS. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, with damaging winds being the main threat. We expect this to occur between 7 and 10pm TUESDAY evening.

Once the front is through... temperatures will be

D

R

O

P

P

I

N

G

!!

I hope that gets the point across... our temperatures could drop 25-30 degrees in a matter of hours! That is just what happened in Rapid City, South Dakota today... they dropped from 55 degrees to 19 degrees in 4 hours!! Brrrrr!

It will also be WINDY behind the front as the colder air moves in. We will likely see a switch-over from rain to snow, as well... but will we see snow accumulation... that is the question! It is a complicated forecast, and we will be updating it on Channel 2 as new data comes in. Depending on how things set up TUESDAY, I may not get to do another blog entry... so stay tuned to the weathercast. Please comment below on any significant weather you experience, or you can email us at : weather@wdtn.com.

Thanks, and buckle up!! :)
Jamie

Jim and Debby blizzard experience!

Thanks for all the emails and pictures!
Here is an email that was sent in from Jim. Interesting to read... Everything from Carls perspective forecasting blizzards 30 years (Next Article down) to all of the stories and perspectives on the blizzard! Keep them coming!
-Erik

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Hello friends. I was 17 years old, it was bad. I was in the country with just my mother. We had to get an old buck stove out of the attic, that was left there from when they used it for heat, back when my grandfather built the house in early 1900's.
Steam heat was installed in the 50's. During the blizzard in 78 we used old newspapers to burn for heat. Since mom was a paper deliver for the Dayton Daily News,for 24 years, she started in 68 country motor routes, we kept all the old ones to recycle once a year, to help the cost of unsold papers from the newspaper boxes. So that was a blessing to have. In the country, you always kept allot of food on hand in the winter for this reason. We closed off all but 2 rooms in the house, since it was a huge 12 room farm house with full basement & attic.After all one little stove would not heat it all. I carried water from the basement spring to use for cooking, washing & flushing the toilet.Had a gas stove to cook. We had no electric for 2 weeks, and was stranded there for 10 days.Dad was stuck at work in Oxford Ohio, which he could not leave, since no one else could get to work. There, he was a boiler operator for the college, they needed heat & steam to use there. Brothers & Sisters lived in town. So the lord provided for us, we were more blessed more than other people.We Lived west of Eaton on Winters Road ( Fit its name ) used the battery out of a car to talk on the CB radio and listen to the scanner.Tell you the truth, that was the one of the best times of my life. Thanks mother I miss you & dad so much. They passed away in 1994, heath problems.But they took so good care of us, so well, through the years.Thanks for reading Jim Wilkinson

Your Blizzard Memories...

Today I am posting some of the 1978 Blizzard stories and photos we have received from viewers. It is amazing to read your stories and see the pictures to go along with them!


Here are two photos from the blizzard of 1978 located in Medway, Ohio
-Kendall Dechaene



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The morning that we woke up to the blizzard I opened the front door for my husband to go to work and I could not see out the storm door, as the snow had blown up on our porch and completely covered the front of the house!

My father was Chief of Police in Miami Township and my husband was a part-time police officer on the department. My husband and father made their separate ways to the Police Department and due to the snow they could not get the cars out on the roads to help those that needed assistance. However, several residents of Miami Township donated the use of their family snowmobiles to the department and for 2 days my husband and some of the other officers made emergency runs on those snowmobiles and their own cars if they had 4 wheel drive. They picked up medication and food and delivered them to those that called asking for help. We have 2 sons that were 12 and 10 at that time and once they got their snowsuits on they hit the street with their snow shovels and a couple of their neighborhood buddies to make some money shoveling snow.

We lived on Pinegrove Drive and the street below us is Silvercliff Drive off of Rt 741 and one particular house on Silvercliff was occupied by a single older lady and she was completely snowed in front door, garage door, and windows and these boys started shoveling her out. Once they got her all cleaned up driveway and all she paid them $100.00 took them all inside and gave them hot chocolate and cookies and they sat and watch TV with her for a long time that afternoon. Every time it snowed after that they ran to her house to make sure she was shoveled out. My boys talk about that every so often and wonder whatever happened to that sweet old lady.

The photo below was taken a day or so after we had dug ourselves out of the house and our cars out of the driveways.
-Judy Dickey


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I was 23 and a police dispatcher for the City of Englewood. I only lived a couple of blocks from the new City office building and I was picked up in a police cruiser to report to work because I couldn't get out of the driveway. Many of us worked double and triple shifts during the height of the storm. We became an emergency shelter and coordinated many rescue efforts to bring people into the shelter who were stranded in the more rural parts of our area. My job was to answer incoming emergency calls and then get help to wherever it was needed. We also provided communications for the City snow removal trucks who were tirelessly keeping the main emergency routes clear. We had a business in town that sold snowmobiles...and they let us use them to rescue people who had become stuck on the sides of roads and to bring people into shelter who were stranded in areas that couldn't be reached by automobile. Many of our officers could not get into work because of the bad roads. I called my 21 year-old brother who had a 4-wheel drive Land Cruiser and he transported some of the police officers in to the City building.
Below is a picture from my front porch in Englewood during the blizzard.
-Tom Eastridge, Dayton



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I can’t remember which one of you asked for memories of the 78 Blizzard but I have a few memories I’d like to share. I don’t have any pictures but I will never forget it. My name is Penny and I was living in Sidney Ohio back when the blizzard of 1978 hit. I was 5 months pregnant with my first child, we lived in an apartment above my parents at the time. We were all home but my dad who was on a business trip out west. It started as a wind, rain, thunder and lightening storm that just seemed to go on forever, then finally turned into the blizzard. By the next morning all you could see was white everywhere! By the afternoon of the next day I just had to go out walking in it, so my husband and I bundled up and went out to see what it was like, all at once I decided I wanted to make an “angel” in the snow and just fell back (I knew there was enough snow to protect my fall) scared my husband to death with me being pregnant and all, but I made my angel! That is a fun memory!

Then we received a call from my uncle who is a truck driver, that he was coming our way. The Piqua Post of Highway Patrol told him he wasn’t going any farther then there, but he said my sister is in Sidney and I am going there to stay with them! He had full load of lettuce on his truck and had to leave it running all night and day for 3 days. Didn’t work, still lost most of the lettuce but at least he was safe with us. He said that was the worst weather he had ever driven in since becoming a truck driver and had no desire to EVER do it again! It was a very eerie feeling looking out and not seeing any cars moving, or people outside or kids playing in it. My brother and his best friend got their sleds out, bundled up and went from neighbor to neighbor to see if they needed anything and then walked to our neighborhood grocery store when it finally go opened and picked up the items needed. They enjoyed it but of course mom was very worried about them being out in the cold and snow.

We were in the process of fixing up a house to move into, so we decided a few days later when roads were a little better to go and check on it, well, sitting at a traffic light, we were side swiped by a National Guard Unit truck turning in front of us. They had been called in to assisted with the removal of snow and keep an eye on the business around town since not many were open yet. Well, we were happy they were there, but that was not the way we wanted to meet them if you know what I mean.

My dad of course missed all the excitement. He tried to get a flight back and was told that that part of the country was shut down do to a blizzard. He just went on to his next business stop and finally got home a week later after all was over. As you can see, that was a very interesting time for people in Sidney Ohio. Very neat to have been living a part of history then.

Thank you and keep up the great job at TV-2. I watch you every day!
-Penny Willis, formally of Sidney, now living in Troy Ohio.

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I remember the Blizzard of 1978. I was 10 years old and was happy that my school - St. Helen in Riverside - was to be closed for two weeks. Unfortunately, it wasn't a free vacation since we were given a lot of homework the day before the storm hit. The school knew how bad the storm was to be and made sure that we were kept busy during our time off.

My parents had an early 1970s Cadillac with front-wheel drive underneath a huge V8 engine. Because of the weight under the drive wheels, it had little trouble driving in the snow and was one of the few vehicles able to drive during and after the storm.

The wind was so strong and persistent that it blew a huge mound of snow against the back side of our house and completely covered the back door, preventing it from being opened.
My father worked for the City of Dayton's street department at the time. He operated a snow plow and worked for two-days straight, catching a few winks in his truck when he could. He paid a visit to our house in Riverside (Mad-River Township at the time) and used his truck to plow the snow from our wrap-around driveway! This certainly would have gotten him in trouble with his bosses, but desperate times call for desperate measures!

Thanks for letting us share.
-Mike Frazier, Kettering


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I came to Dayton from Dallas, Texas for a job interview on the afternoon before the blizzard hit. I was supposed to fly out again the next day, but it was 3 days before I could get a flight out. In spite of the shock to my Texas-thinned blood, I accepted the job and have spent the last 30 years living happily in Dayton (and now in Trotwood).
-Dr. Kathleen Farmer, Professor Emerita, United Theological Seminary.

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I heard Mark talking about the blizzard of '78 and that was my first official winter in Ohio since moving here from Massachusetts with my parents. I really don't remember much since I was only seven years old but I do remember my father and neighbor digging our driveway and alley out at that time I was living in upper Dayton View close to Good Samaritan Hospital(actually Good Sam was in my backyard).
-Laura

Blizzard Memories...

30 years ago this Saturday January the 26th I was a NEW meteorologist at Channel 2. I left a TV station in Youngstown in November of 1977 & moved my family to the Dayton area.

Two days before the Blizzard hit on Tuesday we were watching a possible storm forming over the Gulf Coast area by late Wednesday. As time went on we continued to watch the model (the NGM model... and yes only one model was available back then) show a major storm would be developing to our south.

Late Wednesday evening the storm was over Alabama & developing fast & moving northward with rain pushing into the Miami Valley. Our temperature was near 40 degrees here in Dayton while just to the west Indy was down to 10 degrees & near zero out in Illinois.

As the rapidly developing storm moved over us & to the north our winds shifted to the southwest & increased to 50-60mph with gust to 75mph. This did two things: 1) it dropped our temperatures within 1 hour to near 20, and 2) changed the rain to snow! The pressure of this storm dropped to near-record lows of 28.50 inches of mercury for the entire region. Here is a look at the surface map from that day. Notice the surface plots are plotted by HAND!

Click to enlarge

The temperature continued to drop rapidly to about 5 degrees by 5am. This rapid drop in temperature froze the water on the roads & within a few hours we had a horrible mess with 1-2" of ice on the roadways and all surfaces. Along with this, we had heavy snow falling and terrible blowing & drifting snow.

I woke up at 5am on Thursday morning to the wind howling outside & when I looked outside I was shocked to see my car in the driveway almost completely covered with snow. The station sent a jeep to pick me & an engineer up about 6am. It took us about an HOUR to get to the station & then the engineer could get us on the air & I started with live weather for the rest of the day.

I finally made it back home about 9pm with the help of the jeep & after a few hours of sleep made it back to work with again the help of the jeep.

One thing I remember, semi trucks were completely covered in snow at the side of the roads... all you could see was the antenna showing! Search parties went out to find those stranded in their cars and trucks. People that lived on farms out of the city were stranded for weeks! The photo below shows cars stranded on the highway:

Click to enlarge

All in all, this was the worst Winter storm I have experienced in my over 40 years of forecasting the weather! But if the same storm would happen today, we would be better prepared. For one, back then, all they had was salt to treat the roadways. And that didn't work when the temperature was below 20 degrees! I remember going to the barber shop that Saturday (it was only a few blocks away), and it took me several hours to get there and back! We finally started to get back to normal by the Monday of the following week.

Carl

Another Arctic Front

Most locations started out with a trace to a half-inch of snow this morning... with isolated areas getting up to an inch. Here are some numbers from our weather checkers:

Covington: 1/2"

Kettering: 1/4"

Middletown: 3/4"

Tipp City: 1/2"

Xenia: 1/2"

Yellow Springs: 1/2"

The cold front is now off to our East, and temperatures are falling! We have dropped 10-degrees in about 3 hours... brrrrr! But it's only going to get COLDER as another Arctic Front heads our way.

Wednesday looks cold, but nice, as we get back into some SUNSHINE! Highs will be in the 20s ahead of said Arctic Front. That front will come through late Wednesday night into Early Thursday morning, bringing another chance of light snow. It also comes with those bitter cold temperatures! Thursday afternoon, we'll likely be in the teens... and down into the single digits by Friday morning.

The good news... the cold won't last LONG! We are expecting a warm-up as we head through the weekend!

In other news, this year marks 30 years since the Blizzard of '78. Saturday is the anniversary, and we are asking for your memories and/or photos of that storm. We will show some of them on Channel 2, and we will also post them online. Here is one photo from Cathy Ulring. It is a picture of her sons, David and Michael, who were 10 and 7 at the time... standing on the snow and touching the roof of their house in Beavercreek!

We look forward to hearing your stories, and seeing your snapshots. You can send them to weather@wdtn.com Later this week, Chief Meteorologist Carl Nichols will post some of his memories... he was right here in the weather center forecasting the Blizzard as it moved in!

Jamie

Light Snow and More Cold!

A cold front is heading our way... that means snow showers for Tuesday! The snow will move in just in time for the morning commute, so there could be some slick spots out there. Here is a look at the snowfall forecast via the NAM model:


Click to enlarge

Most locations are at .01"... but there are pockets of .1". That would equal out to "an inch or less" forecast!

Behind the cold front... you guessed it... colder air again! That is actually the definition of a cold front... it's "the leading edge of colder air". So we'll be in the 20s on Wednesday... and then a 2nd cold front will put us in the teens for Thursday.

With the bitter cold air in place... many of you have gotten a little bored... and photography has actually been a nice distraction! We thank you for sending in your photos. Here are a couple from viewers... This first one is from Bill Schmidt of Farmersville. It's a shot of the frost that formed on one of his windows Sunday morning just as the sun rose. The low in Farmersville dipped to +1.



And this next picture is from Su Barry of Centerville. She forgot to turn off the fountain in her pond... and the little guy just kept trying to spit out water!



If you have weather photos, you can always email them to weather@wdtn.com.
That's all for now!
Jamie

Brief "Warm Up"

Today was the coldest start of the winter... with an "official" morning low of ZERO degrees at the Dayton International Airport. Brrrr! Some of you may have dipped even lower at your house... here is a look at some of our weather checker's morning lows:

Bellefontaine: -3°
Cedarville: -1°
Greenville: -2°
Kettering: 0°
Richmond: -2°
Springfield: -2°
Xenia: 2°

Monday morning, once again, we will be in the single-digits. Some places will be near zero... some may even dip below zero! A large area of High Pressure will be right over us... brining clear skies and light winds... perfect for producing frigid conditions:



Click to enlarge

That's a 1039 mb high... very strong... and very cold! That SAME area of high pressure will bring us some sunshine again Monday afternoon. And as the high shifts off to our East, our winds will, in turn, shift in from the south-southeast. That will help to warm us a bit during the day. Isn't it sad when we're calling upper 20s "warmer"?? ;)

On Tuesday, our next cold front moves in... you can see the forecast NAM model below. We will see scattered snow showers with this one... maybe a half-inch to an inch in some locations. Stay tuned, as we tweak the forecast tracking this storm over the next two days!


Click to enlarge

Have a good one!
Jamie

Here... We.... Go!

Are you ready for the Arctic Blast? It is heading our way! Right now (10pm) the Arctic Cold Front is located in Indiana. You can see it on the map below:



Click to enlarge

There are a lot of little numbers on that map... thankfully, they are color-coded! The RED numbers are TEMPERATURES. Do you see that Dayton (DAY) is 25 degrees? And 28 degrees in Indianapolis (IND). If you look where Chicago is (ORD), you will see a temperature of 13 degrees on the other side of the front! Quite a big temperature contrast!!

The front should be moving through the Miami Valley between 2 and 4 am... and by the early morning hours, our temperatures will be in the teens, with wind chill readings in the single digits. We'll only go down from there! As expected, The National Weather Service has issued a WIND CHILL ADVISORY for Saturday night through Sunday morning. Here is a break down of the day:

SATURDAY:
8am... 17°, with a wind chill of 5°
Noon... 12°, with a wind chill of -4°
5pm... 8°, with a wind chill of -9°
9pm... 3°, with a wind chill of -14°

We will also spend Sunday in the single digits and teens... but it won't be quite as breezy. Still, very cold!!

I hope you don't have to be outdoors! If you do, obviously... protect the extremities, which are most likely to get frostbite. (Nose, Ears, Fingers, Toes). When wind chills approach -20°, you can get frostbite in as little as 30 minutes...


Jamie

More Cold Talk...

Our bloggers were prepared for the snowfall this morning, weren't you?! :) As expected, we got about a half-inch of snow... and untreated roads were a little slick. Thankfully, when we warmed a bit and switched to drizzle, things improved dramatically! Cold Front #1 that is bringing the gray, damp, unsettled weather will move through tonight. Until it's through... we will continue the drizzle... and it could mix with a little sleet/snow as our temperatures drop tonight. So keep that in mind if you're heading out this evening/overnight. Again, we won't see any major accumulations... but a dusting is possible. And with the cold temps, watch out for icy spots on the roads.

And, unfortunately, nothing has changed with Cold Front #2! It is still set to come through Friday night, bringing the coldest air of the season. Here is a look at the afternoon temperatures in Central Canada... I can only say one thing about that... Brrrrrrrrrr! (Yes, that is -27° F in Yellowknife!)

Click to enlarge

Carl and I have been talking about this all afternoon... the wind chill readings up there are near -30°!! Who lives up there... and why?! ;)

Our temperatures here won't get THAT cold, as the airmass will MODIFY as it heads south. But we will see our highs in the teens and lows near zero. As we mentioned yesterday, the winds will only add to the bitter cold... giving us wind chill readings well below zero! The National Weather Service may issue a WIND CHILL ADVISORY for Saturday afternoon/night. The WIND CHILL ADVISORY is issued whenever wind chill values are between -10 and -24° F. We'll have a break-down of the forecast cold/wind chill readings on the weathercasts tonight.

Soooo... what are some of your favorite indoor activities?! ;) ...Since we won't be going outdoors much this weekend with our little one. I know we will be playing with all the baby toys, and making our rounds to each mirror in our house (Claire loves to look at her reflection!). If we're feeling particularly zany... we might even break out the playmat! Yes, we lead exciting lives...

Until tomorrow,

Jamie

Light Snow Coming

Greetings, Bloggers!

We are still tracking our 2 cold fronts. The first one will bring some light snow developing late tonight and continuing into Thursday morning. We are expecting amounts to be under an inch... but as temperatures will be below freezing for the morning commute... there could be some slick spots out there. The snow will come to an end as we move into the afternoon hours, and our temperatures will eventually rise above freezing. This could lead to some drizzle across the area. So expect a chilly, gray, dreary day for Thursday.

Cold front #2... this is the one many of you are afraid of. ;) This second front will bring in the Arctic Air just in time for the weekend! We will start the day Saturday in the teens... and fall into the single-digits before the day is done. Combine that with the howling winds, and our wind chill values could be in the range of -10 to -20 degrees!! Eeek! Take a look at the forecast upper level flow... valid Saturday evening:


















Click to enlarge

The flow will be coming straight out of Central Canada... where there is currently a bitterly cold Arctic Airmass. We will be shivering until Monday!! Watch the weathercasts Thursday evening, and we will break down the arrival of the cold air for you...

Jamie

ARCTIC AIR WATCH!!

ARCTIC AIR WATCH...

While temperatures for us will be running above average WED and THU, it won't last long! We are watching 2 Cold Fronts this week. There is Arctic Air out there... and it's heading our way!

The first cold front will come through on THU. This front will bring the chance of some very light snow... much like we just saw over the past couple of days. But then the bottom drops out as the second, stronger cold front moves through.

Let's look at the current temperature map for Canada:















Click to enlarge

The temperatures on the map above are in degrees Celsius... so it may look worse than it really is. However, we're talking single digits and teens... heading our way! It looks like the coldest air will reach us Friday night, making for a bitter cold weekend. Highs on SAT/SUN will struggle to get out of the teens!

But here are some warm thoughts... on the verge of the looming cold...

According to a NOAA....
*2007 Was Tenth Warmest for U.S.
*Fifth Warmest Worldwide
*The average U.S. temperature for 2007 was 54.2degrees F
*Six of the 10 warmest years on record for the contiguous U.S. have occurred since 1998, part of a three decade period in which mean temperatures for the contiguous U.S. have risen at a rate near 0.6 degrees F per decade.

We will update you on the two approaching fronts as the week goes on!
Jamie

Sundays Snowfall Possibilities

Some good News! The system coming in on Sunday is not only weak but rather moisture starved so we wont see much precipitation. Most of the energy with this Low is being transferred to a coastal storm... and as you can see in the NAM 18Z Model below.. we are just left with some light precipitation. There is one problem that we are going to have to deal with... and that's duration. Looks like we are going to be dealing with this system for a couple days. Sunday afternoon temperatures will begin to fall changing light rain over to snow by evening. Snow will remain on the light side with most locations seeing about a trace to an inch by Monday morning. During the day snow showers will continue with another possible inch. So yes things will be wintry.... but manageable. There is a chance that northern and western communities could see slightly more with some enhancement off Lake Michigan. I wouldn't be surprised if places in Mercer, Auglaize, and Northern Preble picked up 1-3 total by Monday night. Tuesday flurries are possible with another trace. Of course we'll continue to update the forecast and keep you posted!
-Erik

Showers Then Colder!

Showers are moving through the Miami Valley this late afternoon, as a storm system approaches. Radar trends are showing the heaviest rain to remain to our South and East... but we will still be dealing with scattered showers as we head through the evening. There could even be a rumble or two of thunder. If you live down in Butler, Warren, Clinton or even Greene County... you may get hit by a heavier pocket of rain.

The severe weather with this system will remain even South of there... check out the storm reports already filed for today:

Click to enlarge

Quite a few tornado reports in Mississippi and Alabama! After this front swings through, we'll notice colder temperatures for Friday. It looks like a good deal of low-level moisture will hang around, too... so a gray day is on tap... low clouds with possible drizzle... maybe even a few snowflakes mixed in.

Temperatures will remain chilly for the next several days, so if you have been waiting for the return of winter-like weather... this is it! We are even tracking our next chance of snow, you can see the storm forecast to head our way Sunday and Monday... a big trough is visible at the 500mb level:

Click to enlarge

That would be valid Sunday afternoon. It is still quite far off to get a good feel of what this will mean, but we'll be watching it over the next few days, and will keep you posted!

I also wanted to include this account of WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S thunderstorm event. This was sent to me from Bill Telzerow, our Xenia weatherchecker. It is very interesting, as he says he has never experienced anything quite like it! I hope you enjoy the read!

Jamie:

A good friend called me about 10:20. We discussed the Tornado Watch; and the Low Level Jet occurrence in progress, i.e. all the low level scud from about 900mb to 1000mb was racing North in the area of 50 to 60 MPH, with a bit of a NorthWest component. At the same time there was a rather interesting Meso-Scale "feature" in the Richmond area with a fairly narrow squall line extending to the South. It was impossible to tell whether it was a Meso type feature, or a small Vorticity Maximum trying to form (Maybe you can help there). Concurrent with this, my weather station began showing wind gusts starting to increase (Mostly 30 to 40 MPH), and the atmospheric pressure just crashing... I went from 29.56 to 29.46 inches of mercury in 35 minutes, before slowly increasing, with no apparent reason for this crash.

As the prefrontal squall line moves E/NE, my wind gusts steadily increased until about 11:10 when I peaked out at 47 MPH. Between 10:45 and the top gust I had no fewer than twelve gusts (Maybe more) over 40 MPH. No Lightning/Thunder. As the pre-frontal line approached, when I expected more mixing down (I really anticipated a gust of 50+) through the low level Jet max, my wind gusts started to back down, little by little, not dramatically. I had one more gust of any importance a little after 12:00 A.M. at 46, on th MPH on the Cold Front. Total rainfall .85 inches of rain, no hail... Interesting evening... We haven't had our house rattled like this, for this extended period of time before.
Just Fun for a Weather Fanatic...
Bill Telzerow
NWS I.D. OGN510

Enjoy the evening!
Jamie

The Return...

Hello, Bloggers!

It is great to be back from maternity leave and forecasting again! It is funny... even after being off for more than two months... how everything just comes back like I never left. :) However, it was diffifcult to leave little Claire today, of course! I was hoping she would be sleeping... that would have been easier... but no such luck! She was wide-awake and smiling! Soooo hard to leave that cute little face! Here are some recent pictures of the little one:

She has curly hair... don't really know where that comes from! But it is CUTE! :)

On to the weather... a very strong cold front will be coming through tonight, and as Brian mentioned below... we are expecting some strong winds. So secure any items you have outdoors around your home!

Here is a look at the surface winds forecast by the NAM model:

Click to enlarge

You can see they are forecast to be around 30-knots sustained... which would be ~35mph... with higher gusts. Gusts around 50 mph or greater!

We will see showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms through the evening into the overnight. But the rain will be gone by the time the morning commute comes around. We could see some heavy rain, at times... and most places should pick up a half-inch or more pretty quickly. Email or comment us your rainfall totals, and your wind experiences! We will try to show some of your info on the late news tonight.

Tune in as we talk about some BIG temperature changes!!
Jamie

More Wind on the Way!

Seems like this has been a fairly consistent feature so far this winter...big swings in temperature and as those changes take place, quite a bit of wind. A wind advisory has been issued for the region as another one of these systems passes through Ohio tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms occurred west of us yesterday with the front, but the instability does not look quite as strong today over our region. Still, gusts to 50 will be possible later early tonight and that still could produce some minor wind damage. The SPC has us outlooked with a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for early tonight although I don't think we will hear a lot of rumbling. Winter weather gradually builds back in for later this week.

If there would be any severe weather later today, be sure to keep it tuned to WDTN for the latest.

COLD WEATHER!!! WOW

The first "real" arctic surge of has made its way into the Miami Valley.

Here are some of the readings we had around this morning

Saint Henry 6

Winchester, IN 3

Vandalia 5

Springfield 9

Oakwood 7

Y. Springs 7

Downtown Dayton 8

But things are going to be even colder as we head into Thursday Morning!!!

Snow was also a factor as it built up across the Valley. Some locations saw as much as 5 inches over the past three days.

Beavercreek - 3.5"

Bellbrook - 4"

Bradford - 2"

Brookville - 3.5"

Camden - 2"

Covington - 3"

Eaton - 2.5"

Fairborn - 3"

Eaton - 2.5"

Greenville - 3.5"

Kettering - 3.5"
New Carlisle - 5"

Sidney - 4"

Tipp City 3.5"

Thank you wxcheckers for heading out into the snow to get those measurements! Brrrrr
At points you may have looked like this little guy. Su Berry, thank you for the picture. He looks cold!