Nice Thursday!

A warm front will pop north of Dayton overnight, and that will allow MUCH warmer air to move into the Miami Valley. Both Thursday and Friday, we will enjoy high temperatures in the 70s.

But, of course... with the warm weather... comes the threat of showers and thunderstorms. Right now, the best chance will be Friday night into Saturday morning. But really at any time after Thursday night... we could see rain.

Unfortunately, this comes just in time for the weekend... when there are a lot of outdoor events going on! Here are a couple that some of the 2 News Team will be participating in:

Derby Day Dash
9am Saturday
5/3 Plaza Downtown
Dan Edwards... playing the music, pumping up the crowd!

Walk for Women's Wellness
2pm Sunday
Carillon Park
Many Channel 2 Personalities will be there! Some will be walking, others will be grilling and serving refreshments. I may even bring Claire to this one, if it's nice enough! :)

There is also the Flying Pig Marathon going on... down in Cincinnati. That is Sunday morning, 6:30am. Michelle Kingsfield is actually RUNNING the half-marathon! She is a machine! ;) Good luck to anyone else running (or walking!).

We hope to see you out and about this weekend!
Jamie

Storm #2 Is Winding Down

From last night's blog... you know that Storm #2 is affecting us this evening. It is actually winding down... and any thunderstorms moved out of the area earlier this evening. We are just left with showers, and cooler temperatures!

Here is a look at Live Doppler 2X around 6pm this evening... notice the two stronger thunderstorms in Montgomery County:



Both of those thunderstorms produced hail. Most of our hail reports were pea-sized hail... or dime-sized hail. We did have one report of three-quarter inch hail with the Northern storm. The Southern storm moved through Beavercreek Township, and our weather checker, Bill Telzerow took this picture of the hail:



Note that there is NO rain falling in this picture... it's ALL HAIL! He had 3/8" depth by the time the thunderstorm moved through. Amazing!

Now it will feel colder for 36 hours or so. Lows tonight will dip into the mid-30s... Tuesday afternoon we will be in the upper 40s to near 50... and Tuesday night we dip to near freezing!

At least it will be dry!
Jamie

Colder Air Coming

After a pretty nice weekend, things will be changing... pretty much overnight! There are 2 systems we are watching:





The first one is a stalled front to our Southeast. A wave of Low Pressure will ride along this front, keeping us with the chance of a few spotty showers tonight and Monday morning. The best chance of rain will be in the Southeastern viewing area this evening... Warren, Clinton, Green and Clark counties. And better chances for everyone overnight.


Monday afternoon, we will be in between the two systems... but we still can't rule out a spotty shower, maybe a thunderstorm.


Monday evening, system number 2 drops in. That brings the chance of showers and thunderstorms back UP... but the rain should be gone by Tuesday morning.


Not only will we have to deal with these two storms, but we also have to deal with the colder air they will pull into the Miami Valley! We'll see our highs only near 50-degrees as we start the week. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, we'll be pretty close to freezing. Wednesday is the better morning to see frost. Take care to protect your tender vegetation!


As temperatures are dropping... let's look ahead to this summer! It's time for the FIRST 90-DEGREE DAY CONTEST! How do you play? Well, you must guess what day we will hit 90-degrees for the first time this summer. Please follow these directions. If you do not follow them, your entry will be incomplete...


1) NAME
2) CONTACT INFO... email or phone number
3) DATE and TIME OF DAY you think we will reach 90-degrees for the first time this year... at the Dayton International Airport NWS station.
4) Send entries to jjarosik@wdtn.com
5) Entry deadline: May 15th


There will be a small prize for the winner... so have fun and good luck!!
Jamie

Changes Ahead and 90-Degree Contest!

Greetings Bloggers!

I hope you enjoyed another beautiful day! We once again made it into the upper 70s, to right around 80 degrees this afternoon. But changes are on the horizon!

A warm front came through the Miami Valley this afternoon. There's not a huge amount of warmer air moving in... but there IS more HUMID air moving in! Our dew points were in the 40s early this evening, but they're on the rise. As of 9pm, we are up to a 50 degree dew point.




**Mini-lesson on dew point and relative humidity**
You often hear us talk about dew points and relative humidity. A dew point is actually a better measure of moisture in the air. Dew points above 65 degrees will make it feel "sticky" and uncomfortable outside... you will really FEEL the humidity. So the dewpoint is directly related to the amount of moisture in the air. On the other hand, relative humidity has to do with how close the air is to saturation. When relative humidity is above 70 or 80%... it will feel moist outside. BUT not necessarily uncomfortable. If you have a high RH *and* a high dew point, THEN it would feel uncomfortable.


Does that make sense, or did I just confuse everyone??

Anyway, dew points are now going up... we could be close to a 60-degree dew point Friday. So it will definitely feel more humid!

Along with the moist air, we have a couple of short-waves moving through... and a front to deal with. Here's the break-down...

Late tonight, a 500mb short wave will be affecting us:



Click to enlarge

So that means the chance of rain is there late tonight and early Friday morning.

During the afternoon, it looks like there will be a good chunk of dry weather!

But Friday night into Saturday morning, a cold front approaches:


Click to enlarge

That will bring more showers and thunderstorms as the front comes through.

The weekend looks wet at the beginning (SAT AM) and end (SUN PM)... with dry weather in between. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, with highs in the 60s.

OK... so it's that time of year again! Time for the FIRST 90-DEGREE DAY CONTEST! How do you play? Well, you must guess what day we will hit 90-degrees for the first time this summer. Please follow these directions. If you do not follow them, your entry will be incomplete...

1) NAME
2) CONTACT INFO... email or phone number
3) DATE and TIME OF DAY you think we will reach 90-degrees for the first time this year... at the Dayton International Airport NWS station.
4) Send entries to jjarosik@wdtn.com
5) Entry deadline: May 15th


There will be a small prize for the winner... so have fun and good luck!!
Jamie

Unseasonably Warm

Today our high temperatures were near 80-degrees across much of the area! Some of our Weather Checkers called in with highs in the lower-80s. The normal high for this time of year is 64 degrees... so we are running WAY above average!

Thursday we'll once again be in the upper 70s during the afternoon. We're expecting the same on Friday... and if we see more sun Friday... watch out! It could be even warmer.

Our next chance of rain comes with an approaching COLD FRONT. This will affect us Thursday night, part of Friday, and some showers could linger into early Saturday. Behind this front, we cool slightly for the weekend.

Next week, however, is looking *significantly* cooler! Highs in the 50s... lows in the 30s. Eeek! There is even one morning that looks like we could drop near freezing. It is something to watch!

Jamie

Cut off Low.... Finally on the move! Plus some nice pictures (I promise no snakes!)

While the past weekend wasn't a wash out... we did see our fair share of rain... mostly occurring in the eastern half of the Valley on Saturday afternoon.

Here are some of the totals from our Wx Checkers.

-Beavercreek .3"

-Brookville .12"

-Cedarville .28"

-Eaton .06"

-Greenville .12"

-Middletown .2"

-Wapakoneta .2"

This past weekends unsettled weather was caused by a "Cut off Low". The Jetstream usually steers our storm systems causing them to move fairly rapidly from west to east. With the jetstream well to the north this system as just meandered to the southeast.

Now onto the good news. Since this system is cut-off.... it also doesn't have cold air to flood in behind it... so as soon as the clouds leave temperatures will be back to normal... and in some cases above!

Here are some pictures sent in from David & Gail Berkebile! They were taken at Cox Arboretum in West Carrollton! WOW gorgeous!

All Shook Up

So did any of you feel the earthquake? I had no idea we even had one until I turned on 2 News this morning. Bummer! I have always wanted to feel an earthquake! I was half-hoping it happened at 3am... because that is when Claire woke up. I thought maybe she felt it, but no such luck... it happened at 5:37am. We both slept through it!

The earthquake's epicenter was just southwest of Vincinnes, Indiana. There was also an aftershock around 11:14am. Both of these waves were felt within one minute here in Dayton. Amazing!

According to the U.S. Geological Service, the quake happened in the Illinois Basin, the Ozark Dome Region. The largest earthquake previously measured in this area was a 5.4 back in 1968. Moderately damaging earthquakes happen every decade or two... and smaller earthquakes can be felt once or twice a year.

Earthquakes in the Central U.S. differ from those on the West Coast. First, East of the Rockies... an earthquake can be felt over an area TEN TIMES bigger than one on the West Coast. That's what we saw today... see the graphic below... this one was felt up to 400 miles away!

This isn't the first big earthquake we've felt here in the Miami Valley. Did you know the State of Ohio has a special seismic network... 16 stations... where volunteers track earthquakes? There are 2 stations here in the Miami Valley... in Clark and Mercer Counties.

Anyway, two of the most notable quakes rattled Shelby County just a week apart in 1937. The most intense of these measured 5.5 on the Richter Scale, and did some significant damage. The most recent tremor shook Auglaize County 20 years ago. It was a 4.6 earthquake.

Unfortunately, we may never know exactly what fault caused the earthquake. Here in the Midwest, the fautls are interlaced and so deeply buried over the generations, that few earthquakes can be connected to a specific fault.

Just some interesting facts! Let us know your experience, if you felt today's earthquake!

As for the weather... enjoy this evening... because over the weekend, things will change. Our storm is set to move in, bringing the chance of rain late tonight. We could even see a few thunderstorms Saturday afternoon... possibly with some small hail. Sunday we'll see the chance of rain for the first part of the day, then a slow drying trend. The sun and 70s are back... wouldn't you know it... for MONDAY. Ugh!

Have a super Friday night and a great weekend!

Jamie

One More Day...

Today's highs were well into the 70s across the area, with plenty of sunshine! We have one more day of this beautiful weather to enjoy before things change for the weekend. A slow-moving storm will finally get here on Saturday! Tonight, it is bringing rain to the parts of the Plains and Midwest:





You might look at that map and think the clouds (and even the rain) would be here sooner than Saturday. But the upper winds are flowing in our favor! Notice below, the 500 mb flow:



Click to enlarge

That big ridge is helping us squeeze one more nice day outta this one! Air flows clockwise around high pressure. And this strong ridge is transporting the moisture in more of a North-South direction, than East-West. BUT the ridge will continue to move East as the storm advances... and eventually... the rain will move in. The timing isn't the best... it will be here Saturday, with scattered showers (maybe even a rumble or two of thunder), and cooler temperatures. Not the best weather for the Sugar Maple Festival in Bellbrook! Take along the raincoats to the parade! Sunday looks like it may start off with some showers, but we should dry out in the afternoon.

Now for some interesting facts in from NOAA, regarding the month of March!

The average global land temperature last month was the warmest on record and ocean surface temperatures were the 13th warmest. Combining the land and the ocean temperatures, the overall global temperature ranked the second warmest for the month of March. Global temperature averages have been recorded since 1880.


The average temperature for March in the contiguous United States ranked near average for the past 113 years. It was the 63rd warmest March since record-keeping began in the United States in 1895.


Have a good one!
Jamie

70s... and Tree Pollen!

As the storm in the Plains continues to slowly move our way... we will continue to warm up! We'll see highs in the 70s on Thursday and Friday! Great weather! We'll also still see plenty of sunshine, but some clouds are possible... and they'll be more numerous on Friday.

The only downside to all of this is... with the warm, sunny weather comes higher pollen counts. And if trees are your allergy... you may have a rough couple of weeks! Tree pollen is HIGH... checking in at 292. Trees can kick off allergies even if they are not on your property... as trees release large amounts of pollen that can be carried miles away from the originial source. If you have tree pollen allergies... some things to keep in mind:

* Avoid being outside in the morning, when tree pollen is highest. Save the outdoor activities until later in the day, when it subsides.

* Tree pollen is usually lower after a good rain, save longer outdoor

* Keep windows closed and use the A/C if needed

* Take a shower or bath before bed, as pollen can be carried into the house on your clothes or hair. (and even on your pet!)

Well, there is just not much to talk about tonight, with this great weather! I hope you all get to enjoy it!

Jamie

A "Wow" Week!

Well, we started off a little cloudy and cool on Monday, but this week will have you saying WOW before long (if you're not already saying it!).

Today we enjoyed wall-to-wall sunshine, and that trend will continue for a couple more days. Wednesday morning will feature temperatures in the lower-to-mid 30s across the area... so there could be patch frost. But the afternoon looks fabulous, with a high in the upper 60s! Again, with plenty of sunshine!

The reason? A large area of high pressure is controlling our weather this week. Take a look at the surface map below. Notice the high right near us, and to our West... the VERY warm temperatures across the Central and Northern Plains today:

Click to enlarge

That warmer air is heading our way! As the high shifts East, the storm in the Plains will also advance our way. Before it gets here, we should enjoy at least two days with 70-degree readings in the afternoon. Right now, it looks like that storm will affect us Saturday... bringing clouds, some showers and cooler temperatures.

Have a great evening!

Jamie

Cold Mornings Monday and Tuesday!!! We'll see some frost!

More Cold weather on the way for Monday and Tuesday morning! We are even surrounded by freeze warnings!
But don't let this map fool you! We may not be under a freeze warning but we will see below freezing temperatures. (So if you do have a plants that have sprouted you may want to protect them the next few nights).

Obviously if the National Weather Service issued freeze warnings every time the temperature dropped below 32 we would be under one for the entire winter. They stop issuing Frost/Freeze warnings after the first widespread killing frost in the fall and then set dates for the start of the growing season.
The map below is a guideline for the growing season here. Since it is past April 11th in southern Ohio, they have issued Freeze Warnings. Because our growing season here doesn't technically start until April 21st... we will not see Frost or Freeze warnings until after that date.

Thunderstorms Moving In

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the Miami Valley as the night goes on. Any thunderstorm will have the potential to produce heavy downpours, and gusty winds. This strong Spring storm has produced another active weather day across the Central part of the country. Today, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa and Illinois have received most of the violent weather:


Click to enlarge

And the thunderstorm activity will move East as the night goes on. We expect a line of stronger thunderstorms to move through the Miami Valley between 3am and 8am. Again, that time of day we typically see a weakening trend in ongoing thunderstorm activity... but it is something to watch. We will let you know if we get any watches or warnings on Channel 2.

Here is a look at the 700 Relative Humidity (in green) and Omega (red lines) forecast for Friday at 8am. Omega has to do with vertical forcing (rising) of air:


Click to enlarge

That shows the line of thunderstorms we are expecting in the morning. Tune in to Brian Davis in the morning, he will be tracking it all on Live Doppler 2x! The morning show goes from 5am-7am, and you can see him doing cut-ins to the Today Show after that.

After the morning line of thunderstorms, we are still looking at the potential for more development during the afternoon. It will depend on how much we destabilize... how much sun we see. The more sun, the greater the potential for stronger storms. So stay tuned!

Jamie

Strong Spring Storm

A cold front came through today... that brought the morning rain... most places saw a tenth of an inch of rain or less. And what a GREAT afternoon! We were in a "cloud-free zone" today... that helped us warm into the 60s. It felt nice!

But it has been a Severe day out in the Southern Plains! Just take a look at the Tulsa, Oklahoma radar this evening...


Click to enlarge

There are quite a few TORNADO WARNINGS! A strong spring storm is to blame for the active weather there. You can see it in the NAM model below in Texas:


Click to enlarge

Notice our cold front is off to our East... but there is a warm front to our South. That strong storm in Texas will lift the warm front into the Miami Valley on THURSDAY. That means the winds will pick up in the afternoon, and we do have the chance of some scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. It will not rain all day, however... we will have some dry weather... and even a little sunshine!

Now take a look at the storm as it strengthens and moves northeast on Friday morning:


Click to enlarge

There will likely be a squall line way ahead of the cold front... moving into our neck of the woods. Thankfully, the timing is not the best for severe weather... as it looks to come through during the early morning... but it is something to watch. The cold front also lags behind the morning rain, and we could see additional development during the afternoon hours. Right now, the SPC has us in a SLIGHT RISK area for Friday. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats!

We will continue to monitor the situation, and track the storm with Live Doppler 2X! Stay tuned to Channel 2!

OH, I almost forgot... Claire got some better sports gear:




Yeay! She looks much happier here! :)

Jamie

Prettier Spring Pic

Here is a picture that's a *little* more pleasant than Erik's post below! A nice sign of spring that doesn't make some of us squirm! ;)






This was sent in by Wilma and Joe Walker of Richmond, IN. I am seeing lots of daffodils up around the area. It reminds me of a song we used to sing in nursery school. It went,

Spring is Here!
Spring is Here!
How do you think I know?
The Daffodils are Blooming...
So I Know it Must be So!

Funny, what you remember! ;) We went on a couple of walks this weekend... as did much of the Miami Valley, I believe! It seemed everyone was outside... it was nice to see people out and about again! Claire absolutely LOVES being outside! It is a little bright for her, though... so I am going to head out to find her a little bonnet soon...



Anyway, daffodils are not the only flowers I have seen, however. I also noticed a few yards where people were actually planting flowers already! Be careful if you do this... as we will LIKELY be dropping below freezing over the weekend or early next week. We always say the best bet is to wait until after Mother's Day to do any seasonal planting! If you do get that itchy green thumb, remember you will have to cover your tender plants, or bring them in if they are in pots.



Before the big drop in temperature, we will have a slight cool-down, and the chance of rain goes along with it. Expect a few showers tonight and early Wed morning... maybe a rumble of thunder. Highs will be in the 60s Wed afternoon. There is also a chance of rain Thursday and a better chance on Friday. Friday we will also have to watch for the potential for some stronger thunderstorms. We'll be tracking that all week!

Enjoy the night!
Jamie

Warm... but a strong system will move in by late week

Gotta love these beautiful Spring days!
Temperatures in the 60's / 70's...

And it looks like these mild temperatures are going to stick around until this system moves through Thursday and Friday(see pic below). This area of low pressure is going to be a strong one with heavy rain & thunderstorms possible Thursday into Friday. Current models show the system rolling through Friday morning, if that is the case severe weather potential could be fairly low... but if the system comes through early.. (Thursday night) or late (Friday afternoon) things could be pretty active here in the Ohio Valley! The system is a good five days away, so we'll have plenty of time to watch & track it.

P.S. Just to show you how strong this front is... the same model also shows flurries on Saturday with highs in the low to mid 40's... so lets hope things change!! but don't go planting crazy just yet!

Also wanted to post some pictures that were sent in!

Watch your step if your in the garden!

These pictures were sent in by Jean up in Greenville Ohio! Thanks!

High & Dry!

Before we get to the GREAT weekend forecast... let's take a look at some rainfall totals called in by our Weather Checkers:

Beavercreek: .7"

Covington: .85"

Eaton: .5"

Greenville: .8"

Kettering: .8"

Middletown: .8"

New Paris: .65"

Piqua: .7"

Sidney: .8"

So anywhere from a half inch to almost an inch across the area. And now the rain is done, and we will have a couple of days to dry out! High pressure is building in for the weekend:

High pressure promotes SINKING air... you could say the air under high pressure is HEAVY. I always tell the kids... the H can stand for HEAVY or HAPPY... because high pressure usually brings sunshine! :) So that's what we'll be dealing with over the weekend... happy weather! Sunday looks to be fabulous, with our highs climbing into the mid-60s!!

Sooooo that's it! Short blog tonight when nothing is really going on. I hope you all enjoy the weekend... and maybe we'll see you in Piqua for the Deal or No Deal auditions?!

Jamie

Rainy Night

Greetings, Bloggers!

After a few late afternoon showers, there is just a light drizzle across the area this evening. But showers and thunderstorms are increasing to our Southwest. We are expecting this rainfall to move into the Southern viewing area during the early morning hours. If you live in Butler, Warren or Clinton counties... (especially in the Southern part of these counties)... you have the best chance for heavy rain. That is where we have a FLOOD WATCH in effect. We still may have a few good downpours here in the Dayton area, so it is something we will be tracking overnight and into the morning. Don't be surprised to hear thunder overnight... again, especially south of Dayton!

Look how active Live Doppler 2X is this evening:

All of those yellow/orange squiggles are lightning strikes... quite a few! The white lightning strike is the most current (as of 9:30pm). Again, most of this activity will stay to the south of Dayton. You can check out Live Doppler 2X anytime online!

We'll start Friday with rain in the area, then as the afternoon wears on and our storm moves off to the east... we'll start to dry out. The clouds look like they will hang around for a good chunk of the day, and it will be breezy. Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s on Friday.

The weekend is looking pretty nice right now! Dry weather, and the return of spring temperatures! I am so excited for the warmer weather... I am dying to start running again! I have been a slacker, because I don't want to take Claire out in the cold. I have a jogging stroller, and I am ready to go the second it is warm enough! That just might be on Sunday! :)

Have a good one!
Jamie

Another Soaker

It was a beautiful, cool spring day... oh I have to stop there and giggle a little! :) If you were watching the CW news at 10pm last night, I said FALL day on the air. Jack caught me, and Michelle said something at the end of weather like, "We were laughing at the fact it's going to be a FALL day"... I didn't even realize I *said* it... it just came out, naturally, because of the cooler temperatures. :)

ANYWAY... Spring will be back in all of our minds as 1) temperatures climb a bit over the next few days... and 2) Spring rains return. As I mentioned yesterday, we have the potential for heavy rain across the area. We'll start Thursday dry, but during the afternoon hours, showers will develop. They will increase in intensity as we go into the evening, and it's not just us! Take a look at the FLOOD WATCHES & WARNINGS issued to our Southwest...





Click to enlarge

More than 4 or 5 inches could fall on parts of the watch areas... which have already seen quite a bit of flooding this spring! Here in the Miami Valley, we could be added into a flood watch as the next day wears on... so be ready for that. I am still thinking the southern viewing area will get the heaviest rain. We'll keep you posted!

In the meantime, we should be into the mid-50s tomorrow afternoon... and there are some 60s showing up in the 7-day forecast!! Yahoo! We'll talk more about that tonight at 11pm and tomorrow during our 90-minutes of news beginning at 5pm! Have a great night!

Jamie

High Pressure

High Pressure will build in for Wednesday, bringing clear skies to the region. That means lots of sunshine! Temperatures will continue to be cool, with highs near 50 degrees... but it will feel better than today because the sun will be out in full force, and we won't have those gusty winds!

We are already tracking another storm for the end of the week. This one has the potential to dump some heavier rains across parts of the Midwest! Right now, the models are trending the heaviest rain just South of us... down towards Cincinnati. That is the same area that saw the heaviest rains the LAST time we had a big event like this. Not good. Take a look at the NAM and GFS rainfall forecasts below:


NAM forecast, click to enlarge


GFS forecast, click to enlarge

The GFS is bringing a little more rainfall to the Dayton area, but right now I'd say one-to-two inches is a good bet. South of town, maybe more. We will continue to tweak the forecast as we get new data in... so stay tuned!!

The areas with the MOST rainfall potential... upwards of five-six inches Indiana, Illinois, Missouri... and all along the Mississippi River... are again the same areas that got it last time around... so we may be hearing about a loooot of flooding soon!

(And I am working on getting Claire into some better sports gear... so stay tuned for that, too. Ha!) :)

Jamie