Live Doppler 2X Weather Blog

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2008-06-05T09:40:00.001-05:00

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Another Round... and Viewer Storm Photos

2008-06-04T16:39:00.008-05:00

Another round of thunderstorms is heading for the Miami Valley. This cluster will mainly affect the Southern viewing area... along and south of I-70. It will be reaching the extreme western viewing area... Wayne County, IN before 6:30... and should be completely OUT of the viewing area by 9pm. As it comes through, expect tremendous lightning, and very heavy rain. It also has the potential to bring winds in excess of 60 mph... and nickel-sized hail. We will keep you posted of any warnings on Channel 2. Most of the viewing area is under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11pm.

Here are some viewer photos from the storms last night. As well as some pictures of what exactly went down here at Channel 2 when we got hit by lightning! :)

This first photo is from Travis Terry of Centerville. It looks like a funnel cloud may be trying to form.

A very cool lightning picture sent in by John Parmley of Miamisburg. There was a LOT of lightning with these storms!!

We also had some very heavy rainfall. Keith & Janet Buckmaster of Springfield sent in the picture above... they received 3 3/4 inches as of 8am... and it was still raining!

There were also numerous wind damage reports. One came from one of our Middletown Weathercheckers, Jim Allen. He had tree damage from the storms overnight. A Bradford tree fell on the west end of his house.

Our photographer, Paul Rodzinka, took this picture with his video camera. We were able to freeze it to illustrate the lightning show!

Now for some photos of what happened here at Channel 2 last night. We were hit by lightning... and every computer in the building went down. Lights were flickering on and off... we heard popping sounds... and saw sparks. Several computers and lights were actually smoking... so the Moraine Fire Department came out to inspect the building, and to make sure everything was safe. Jeff Brown, who works in our Art Department captured the night:

The Moraine Firefighters arrive!

Carl spotted some lights under the news desk smoking! Here the firefighters are inspecting it.

We are all crowded by the back door, which was propped open. We needed some fresh air!

Hutch is MUCH heavier than Claire!

And the night wouldn't be complete if Jack didn't have a little fun along the way!

All in all, it was a strange night... but everyone is ok. Our engineers are AMAZING, and got us back up and running overnight. Today, many day-side workers came in and didn't even realize we had a power outage last night! Amazing!

Jamie

Heavy Rain

2008-06-04T07:21:00.005-05:00

We've had some very heavy rainfall with the thunderstorms overnight, and now many are dealing with flooding problems.

We have numerous flash flood warnings in effect... and reports of high water and water in basements across the Miami Valley.

Doppler radar estimates that 2 to 4 inches of rain had fallen across portions of the viewing area. Some local locations received close to 5 inches! Runoff from this excessive rainfall is causing flash flooding. Some locations that may experience flooding include... Dayton... Eaton... Englewood... Huber Heights... Kettering... Miamisburg... Moraine and Northridge. Here is the Doppler estimated rainfall:

Heavy rains flood roads and low lying areas rapidly. Do not driveyour vehicle into water of an unknown depth on the the Road. It only takes two feet of rushing water to carry away most sport utilityvehicles and pickups. Take a different route to reach your destination or wait until the water recedes. Remember... most flood-related deaths occur in automobiles. Never drive your vehicle intoareas where the water covers the roadway. Flood waters are usually deeper than they appear. When encountering floodedroads make the smart choice... turn around... don't drown.

Storm reports are numerous for our area, as well. Below is a snapshot...

Lightning Strike!

2008-06-03T22:52:00.005-05:00

So it has been an exciting night in the Channel 2 Studio! We were hit by lightning, and knocked off the air.

It happened during live coverage of the severe weather event. I was in mid-sentence when we had a power surge. The lights went off, and we got knocked off the air for a moment... but then the generator kicked in, and we made it back on the air. I briefly said, "Wow, we took a power hit... perhaps you had one at your home just now..." and BOOM! Everything went dark.

So that is why we haven't been on the air... we didn't even get our newscast on! Hopefully they will get everything sorted out overnight, and we'll be back in business soon. I have never experienced anything like this! Carl says in all the years he has been in the business and at the station, he has never seen it, either!

The potential for strong thunderstorms will continue overnight. Be safe.

Stay tuned...

Severe Update

2008-06-03T19:48:00.002-05:00

Severe weather has begun in the Southern Miami Valley! Thunderstorms have developed along a boundary in the area. We do have a Tornado Watch in effect for most of our counties until 3am.

Many warnings have been posted for counties south of I-70. The line of severe thunderstorms is moving southeast at about 30-35 mph. We have had reports of rotation from many spotters out in the field... including one spotter reporting a rotating wall cloud. This is basically one step away from a tornado as the cloud base is lowering. Many of these thunderstorms are taking on the signature torado "hook echo"... so it is a very dangerous situation... stay in your safe place if your county goes under a warning.

There is a tornado threat, damaging wind, and hail threat as well. We even have reports of someone being hit by lightning in Waynesville as the thunderstorm moved through that area. Stay away from windows, doors... put as many walls between you and the storm as you can! Stay with us on Channel 2 for continuous updates!

JJ

Severe Threat Overnight

2008-06-03T16:30:00.005-05:00

Greetings, Bloggers!

We've had an active day so far with showers and thunderstorms in the area. A few of our counties have already been under a tornado watch (Butler, Warren and Clinton)... and we had a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings, too... for Wayne Co, IN and Preble Co here in Ohio. It looks like we'll see a break in the rain this evening, but more will likely move in late tonight.

First, here's a look at some of the rainfall totals so far... in from our Weathercheckers. Most of the heavier rainfall was along and south of I-70 today:

Bradford: .46"
Camden: .5"
Covington: .15"
Eaton: .4"
Fairborn: .4"
Greenville: .2"
Kettering: .5"
New Carlisle: .6"
Piqua: Trace
Sidney: Trace
Xenia: .7"

Here is the current setup:

Click to enlarge

Notice there are 2 fronts on the map. One to our North... that has placed us in the warm, humid airmass. There is also a warm front to our South. This will hang around the area overnight... slowly moving northward. Showers and thunderstorms will develop about 430 miles away from us... way out in Missouri. So it's going to take awhile for them to get here! The first part of the night should be quiet... with thunderstorm activity increasing around 2 or 3am and sticking around until 8am. We have the potential for some stronger storms... wind, hail and heavy rain are the main threats. Of course we will keep you updated on Channel 2, as we track the thunderstorms with the Miami Valley's most powerful radar... LIVE DOPPLER 2X!

That second warm front will eventually move north of us... putting us into some REALLY HOT air! The First 90-Degree Day Contest could come to an end this week! We are forecasting highs to be near 90 degrees both Thursday and Friday (the 5th and 6th). Stay tuned!

Jamie

Friday Night Storms Report

2008-06-01T20:20:00.003-05:00

What an active Friday!!!
We were in the weather center until 5 am Saturday morning with all of the storms rolling through! With good reason though. Thankfully the tornadoes stayed away from our area but plenty of locations around us were hit.
Ohio Tornado Reports
2 SW Scott in Van Wert County a barn was leveled
2 NW Glandorf in Putnam Two Homes partially destroyed
Arcadia in Hancock 10 homes badly damaged
Fostoria in Seneca around 30 homes damaged

Here is one of the pictures taken during the storm of some lightning! Nice photo Darin

Unfortunately the rest of the pictures aren't quite so beautiful... This picture was taken on Southfield Dr. in Beavercreek.

The picture below was sent into us from Su Berry in Centerville.

Many locations around the southern half of the valley reported wind damage from the thunderstorms that rolled through. Most of it consisted of downed trees and large limbs. A few cases like out in Prebel county just west of Eaton a barn was blown down and a trailer was blown onto the road.

Lets hope the next round of severe weather expected for Tuesday not as powerful

Tornado Watch

2008-05-31T00:07:00.002-05:00

Tornado Watch for the entire viewing area until 6:00am Saturday:

More Info...

2008-05-30T23:44:00.004-05:00

Severe weather is now moving through the Miami Valley! Severe thunderstorms are now affecting Montgomery, Green, Darke and Preble Counties in Ohio... and Wayne County, in Indiana. Again, strong winds are the main threat with these thunderstorms. Lots of lightning and heavy rain are likely... and there could even be some penny-sized hail.

During the 11 o'clock hour, there was a confirmed tornado on the ground in Henry County, Indiana... just west of Wayne County. Local law enforcement reported a tornado on the ground near US 40... East of Lewisville. However, Wayne County officials tell us they have no reports of a tornado touchdown in their county. Here is their info:

IND logged the report by law enforcement at 1118 six miles east of Lewisville. That places it close to Straughn in SE Henry County. At 1120 a trained spotter reported the funnel cloud near Milton. Somewhere between Straughn and Milton, the tornado must have lifted. Emergency units are still looking - and it's tough going in the rain and dark - but no structural damage has been found as yet. We haven't heard any damage reports out of Henry County, either.

We will continue to bring you updates!

Jamie

Evening Update

2008-05-30T20:29:00.006-05:00

Severe Weather is racing across Illinois and Indiana tonight. There is a tremendous amount of lightning with these storms as they are coming across Central Indiana! Let's take a look at what the thunderstorms have done so far...

Damage reports as of 9pm are shown above. The storms that we are watching have mostly WIND DAMAGE. As we've been thinking... wind damage will be our main threat overnight. Winds estimated at 70 to 80 miles-per-hour downed trees and damaged homes in Andrews, IN.. (near Fort Wayne). Weather spotters also reported a tornado about nine miles northeast of Lafayette around 7:30pm.

HEAVY RAIN will also be possible for us overnight. A thunderstorm dumped nearly THREE inches of rain in about 90-minutes northwest of Lafayette, IN. There was also a report from the NWS out of Joliet, IL of almost SIX inches of rainfall in two hours. Wow!!

Here are the watches and warnings as of 9pm:

We still could be put in either a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch. The leading edge of the rain is moving into our northern counties as of 9:30pm. We should see the thunderstorms reach Montgomery County after midnight. We will be here to keep you posted on watches and warnings on Channel 2!

Jamie

Thunderstorms Likely Tonight

2008-05-30T16:15:00.002-05:00

FRIDAY NIGHT’S FORECAST…BREEZY & HUMID WITH SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS, HAIL & POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO…LOW 64

SATURDAY’S FORECAST…PARTLY SUNNY & WARM WITH A CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM…HIGH NEAR 80

A cool front heading out of the Plains will bring showers & thunderstorms into the area later this evening into early Saturday morning. Some of these storms could be severe & we will use THE POWER OF LIVE DOPPLER 2X to track this activity as it moves acrossEastern Indiana & Western Ohio. Here is a look at the thunderstorms as they begin strengthening this afternoon:

And Tornado Watches are already in effect:

We will keep you posted of any watches or warnings on Channel 2.

Dry weather will be with us during the morning hours on Saturday & Sunday with a chance of a few scattered showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon hours.

Jamie

Quiet Here But Stormy in Central US

2008-05-29T21:11:00.004-05:00

THURSDAY NIGHT'S FORECAST...FEW CLOUDS & PLEASANT... LOW 54

FRIDAY'S FORECAST...PARTLY SUNNY BREEZY WARMER & MORE HUMID WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS AT NIGHT...HIGH 82

High pressure continues to bring us nice weather here in the Miami Valley. Another day with full sunshine! Our temperatures were a bit warmer today than yesterday... and tomorrow, we will continue the warming trend. We'll tack on five more degrees... to put us into the lower 80s during the afternoon hours.

Things will change for us as a strong storm moves our way Friday night. Today, that storm is causing a lot of severe weather in the Plains. Here is a lookat the beginning of a long day in Nebraska and Iowa:

The Severe Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Tornado Watch for much of Nebraska. One of the watches is a PDS Watch. A Particularly Dangerous Situation! Yes, there really is such a thing:

So while they get the rough weather today... we have our chance of severe thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday. The best chance right now looks to be between 10pm Friday and 4am Saturday. We'll be tracking the storms with Live Doppler 2X, and will keep you updated throughout the event. Stay tuned!

Jamie

Radiational Cooling Means Chilly Mornings

2008-05-28T20:18:00.003-05:00

High Pressure has settled into the region. This feature brought us the wall-to-wall sunshine today, and the cooler temperatures/lower humidity. What a nice day!

As the center of the High moves right over the Miami Valley tonight, we will have another chilly start on Thursday morning. It’s what we call RADIATIONAL COOLING. Clouds usually help keep us warmer at night, but with clear skies and light winds… the heat of the day escapes right back into the atmosphere. That leaves colder conditions at the surface… and cold air is dense air, so it sinks. That is why the low lying areas are typically the coldest spots! Here is a series of graphics to help illustrate radiational cooling:

The High will be with us for a few days, and as it moves East over time… we’ll see a slow warm-up. The next chance of thunderstorms is Friday night into Saturday!

Jamie

The New Blog is Coming...

2008-05-27T21:48:00.003-05:00

Hello, Bloggers!

What a big change in our weather this evening! It is hard to believe just 30 hours ago, we were in the lower 80s, with dew points in the lower 60s! Tonight as of 10:30pm, our temperature is 52 degrees... with a dew point of 45! THAT'S a cold front for ya! Normally, I would call it "cool"... but after the summerlike conditions we had... it really feels chilly tonight.

Even though the suface cold front is to our south, we still have some lingering showers. Some energy in the middle of the atmosphere is kicking this off... as it moves to our East (by say 2am)... we will continue to dry out. Wednesday is a dry day!

We'll have some clouds around EARLY Wednesday, but will see sunshine as the day goes on. The RUC model has clouds with us at 5am... but then clears us out by 8am. Not sure if it's really going to happen THAT fast... but it should happen nonetheless!

Click to enlarge

So the new blog is coming to our website THIS WEEK! Are you ready for the change? We had a conference call about it today. I like the new format... it will be interesting to see how you all like it. Please let us know what you think. One thing... you will have to register to comment. But once you register, you are set for ALL the WDTN blogs. And there will be more than just the weather blog! :) Anyway, your bookmarks will be changing, as we will have a new web address for the blog... so keep that in mind. THURSDAY AFTERNOON is d-day.

Jamie

Summer-Like!

2008-05-26T19:52:00.006-05:00

I hope you all had a fantastic Memorial Day Weekend! Riverblast was a great time on Saturday... and thanks to everyone who stopped by the WDTN tent to say hello and get some free goodies! And... WOW... the weather could not have been BETTER! :)

Today, it really felt like summer out there! We climbed to 82-degrees this afternoon, with dew points in the lower 60s. That hasn't happened too much this season, as temperatures have been running below average. Today is our first 80-degree day this month, believe it or not! And only our second this season. We are still running about 3.3 degrees below average for the month.

Compare this cooler weather pattern we are in NOW with the one we had last spring... and it's pretty amazing! Last year at this time, we had already touched 80-degrees 16 times! But in 2006, it was cooler... much like this year... and it had only happened ONCE.

We will return to the cooler temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday, on the other side of our cold front. Tonight, the front is still up near Chicago:

It will come through during the early morning... bringing the cooler, less-humid air in as the day goes on. Until the front comes through... we continue the chance of showers and thunderstorms. However it just does not look as impresive as it once did. The rain that tried to move in earlier today just fell apart as it headed our way. Drier air aloft and little in the way of forcing probably won that battle. Look closely just ahead of the cold front. Some thunderstorms were trying to get going early this evening... but even those are weakening! We still can't rule out some showers... *maybe* a rumble of thunder... but severe weather seems less and less likely.

Otherwise, it looks pretty quiet through a good part of the week. I hope you enjoy it!

Jamie

HUGE Tornadoes!

2008-05-22T16:59:00.005-05:00

While we are experiencing a beautiful day here in the Miami Valley... strong thunderstorms have produced an extremely large tornado north of Denver, Colorado.

The supercell thunderstorm hit Weld County... about 50-miles north of Denver. Buildings were damaged... cars and semis tossed around... and at least one person was killed. Weld County Sheriff John Cooke said the man was killed at a campground west of Greeley... which is about 60-miles north of Denver. The man's identity wasn't immediately released. A caretaker of a nearby campground said the man was in a recreational vehicle that was destroyed by the storm.

At one point there was a report of the tornado being a MILE WIDE! The town of Windsor seems to have taken the brunt of the storm. Splintered wood, mangled metal and other debris cluttered roads, yards and fields. About 130 children at a daycare center in Windsor were reported safe after the storm passed through; playground equipment outside the center was damaged.

Here are today's storm reports... notice all the red dots in Colorado, Wyoming... and more recently, Kansas:

Click to enlarge

And now a few photos of the storm and it's damage:

Can you imagine driving around the road and coming up on that huge tornado??!! You can see more photos in a slide show at the Denver NBC station's website CLICK HERE FOR KUSA SLIDE SHOW.

Back here at home, we are still forecasting a great weekend! There are some questions about Friday's weather, however. The models are showing an area of moisture creeping closer and closer to the Dayton area (Dayton is the pink dot):

Click to enlarge

This could mean more cloud cover for the southwest portion of the viewing area Friday afternoon. We can't rule out a spotty shower for locations south and west of Richmond to Dayton to Xenia. Highs Friday are still expected to be in the 60s. Then the BIG warm-up over the weekend, with 70s... and 80s by Monday!!

Have a great evening/night!!
Jamie

Precip and Changes

2008-05-20T19:49:00.003-05:00

We have been going through a cool, wet period of weather here in the Miami Valley. So far this month, our temperatures are running about 2 degrees below average. Our rainfall is well above average... for the month, and for the year:

This is partially due to our stubborn upper level trough we have been talking about. As we are still IN the trough, we will continue to be cool:

Active, unsettled weather is typcially found in troughs. While we picked up some pretty good rain late last night and early this morning... our rain chances are slowly going down. They are still there, however! But notice how they are weakening. Below, you can see a cold front to our south and east. This is part of the system that brought the overnight rain to us. Notice now a weaker disturbance is swinging in from the northwest. This will keep the chance of sprinkles or a brief light shower in the forecast through the first part of Wednesday:

BUT... we'll soon make a switch, as we await the PATTERN CHANGE! That is when we are expecting that ridge to our west to build in and bring back the sunny, warmer weather. We'll still be below-average temperature-wise through the end of the week, but look for highs in the upper 70 to near 80 degrees as the ridge builds in over the weekend!

Not only is there going to be a big change in our weather pattern, we are also going to see some changes here on the blog soon! We are going to a new format. This is all still very new to us... we actually have a training session next week! We are very excited, and will still bring you our in-depth thoughts, and the details behind the forecasts. You can still ask questions here... it will just be a different set-up! We would love your feedback and suggestions as we go along! More to come over the next week or so! Stay tuned!

Jamie

Upper Troughs and Ridges

2008-05-19T20:26:00.003-05:00

As Erik mentioned in yesterday's blog entry... we are stuck in this cooler weather pattern for the rest of this work week. An upper-level trough will keep us with lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s. While Tuesday and Wednesday may still feel a little cool... it will begin to feel a bit better by mid-week... because the sun will come out more!

Last week, when we were looking at the ECMWF model, it had a big ridge of high pressure building in from the EAST... bringing very warm conditions for the upcoming holiday weekend. That is what I was referring to when I blogged briefly on Friday about highs nearing 80 degrees soon.

Now, most of the models are coming together, but showing something different. Now, the ridge is building in from the WEST, but with the same result--a warm-up by Saturday! Here's a look at the GFS model. First, the cooler pattern (trough) we are now in, and then the warm-up (ridge) for Friday...

Click to enlarge

It's interesting how the models can fluctuate so much... but the warm-up is still there. The weekend looks fabulous!

Jamie

Mid May! get out the...... Coat?

2008-05-18T19:48:00.004-05:00

Usually a pattern like this sets-up during the winter months, bringing bitter cold air and fast moving systems out of the Canadian Provinces (They are the typical systems that move through the valley bringing light snow showers and blustery conditions during the winter months). This time of year the pattern is a little odd, but more so is the duration. It looks as if the jetstream will stay to our south for much of the week keeping our mornings chilly and our afternoons cool with partly cloudy skies. Currently it looks as though this pattern will hold until late this week... then gradually the heat that has been building in the plains will head this way! Soak up the nice cool weather, summer will be here soon enough!

Busy Week!

2008-05-16T22:13:00.003-05:00

Sorry for the lack of blogging this week... we have been busy in the Live Doppler 2X Forecast Center! Next week we will be better about blogging!

We'll talk more about a potential warm-up that could have us near 80 degrees!

Have a great weekend!
Jamie

90-Degree Contest!

2008-05-12T15:16:00.002-05:00

Hey, everyone! Don't forget to sign up for the 90-Degree Contest! You only have THREE MORE DAYS to enter!!

Here are the details...

It's time for the FIRST 90-DEGREE DAY CONTEST! How do you play? Well, you must guess what day we will hit 90-degrees for the first time this summer. Please follow these directions. If you do not follow them, your entry will be incomplete...

1) NAME
2) CONTACT INFO... email or phone number
3) DATE and TIME OF DAY you think we will reach 90-degrees for the first time this year... at the Dayton International Airport NWS station.
4) Send entries to jjarosik@wdtn.com
5) Entry deadline: May 15th

We only have about 30 official entries... so your chances are still really good!! :)
Good luck to everyone!
Jamie

Curious.... Could it Have been a Cold Air Funnel??

2008-05-09T10:40:00.007-05:00

Cold Air funnel (pictured below)..... but whats the difference??

There is a very minor distinction between the two.... and no matter what happens... if a funnel cloud comes in contact with the ground it is called a tornado... but our system on Thursday looks to have grown from slightly different origins.

Your traditional tornado grows out of a strongly rotating thunderstorm... were the differences in wind speed and direction change as you get higher in the atmosphere. It's usually the strong up and down drafts in the cell that bend the quickly rotating column of air and eventually form the tornado. (traditional tornado formation pictured below).

With all of the rotation we had aloft (in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere) yesterday with that area of low pressure passing to our south... it is "possible" that it was a tornado... but it also could have been one of his much weaker cousins... called a "Cold Air Funnel"

I first learned about these back in my college days up at Valparaiso University. The National Weather Service would get multiple calls about funnel clouds... on generally cool, windy, drizzly, cloudy days. The meteorologists would then issue a statement alerting the community of these funnels and how they rarely cause damage. Now up around like Michigan they are much more common... after all, Cold Air Funnels are normally found close to large bodies of water (differences in temperatures from air over the land vs. air over water tend to help create the conditions needed to form them) but you can get them away from water as well. Away from water you need that same difference in temperature and wind... and that's exactly what you get on the back side of a Low pressure systems (just like what we had on Friday). The differences in air temperature and wind speed as cooler air moves in on the back side of the system interact with weak up and down drafts causing these funnels to grow... rarely do they ever make contact with the ground.

Here are a few more pictures of Cold Air Funnels....

These are from San Diego, CA

Breese IL, 2004

Now for the San Diego pictures you may be asking.... aren't those water spouts? Well traditionally tornadoes and cold air funnels form from the cloud and move towards the ground. Where things like dust devils and water spouts move from weak temperature differences at the surface and build skyward.

As for the picture from IL..... the only real way of knowing is to study how and in what environment the circulation formed.

Since I didn't see the actual funnel here in the Miami Valley (in person anyway)... let me know if those pictures look similar to what you saw in Clinton, Greene, and Clark counties! Cold air funnel... or Traditional tornado. What do you think?

Strange Day

2008-05-08T20:10:00.005-05:00

It certainly wasn't your typical severe weather day here in the Miami Valley. This just goes to show, "Never say never when talking about the weather." That is my motto! And it holds true today.

There was no clashing of airmasses. There was no dryline. There wasn't even THUNDER or LIGHTNING. But there WERE three reports of tornadoes here in the Miami Valley! The two red dots in Ohio... one is near Jamestown in Green County, and the other near Selma in Clark County:

Click to enlarge

One tornado touchdown that did not make the map above is the one in Clinton County. That one happened near Port William. Thankfully, there were no major damage reports... and no injuries. But we did get a lot of viewer photos of FUNNEL CLOUDS! The thing to remember about tornadoes and funnel clouds... tornadoes are in contact with the ground. Funnel clouds are NOT.

This first photo was sent in from a viewer in Clinton County. It is a very CLEAR shot of a funnel cloud over Port William:

Tese next shot is from Jim Kohut of Springfield. Another great shot of a funnel cloud... Jim spotted it near Route 41 and old 70:

These next two photos are from Dave Marshall in Clark County. He took these overlooking Beard Rd. viewing from west to east in Clark co. at approximately 6:45p.m. You can see the funnel cloud just over the barn in the distance:

And this last picture is from Gloria Grimm. She set out to take some funnel cloud pictures, but never saw any! Instead, she saw the 2 News Team, On Your Side with coverage of the storms:

If you ever have any cool recent weather photos... you can always share them with us! Send them to weather@wdtn.com

Thanks, and have a great night!

Jamie

Spotty For Now... But Not For Long!

2008-05-06T16:26:00.004-05:00

We have a few spotty showers in the area this late afternoon! There was even a thundershower up in Mercer County. Here is what it looked like on LIVE DOPPLER 2X at 5:30pm:

Click the radar for the current loop

Yes, we have a big ridge of high pressure over the area... but a weak mid-level feature has brought about enough lift to create this isolated rain. You can also see the moisture associated with the wave on the 700mb level:

Click to enlarge

These showers will be around during the evening, but should come to an end as the wave moves off to our East early tonight.

But otherwise, it was a beautiful day across the area! Temperatures reached the upper 70s to near 80 degrees for most of us. We are, again, in the WARM SECTOR... as a warm front is to our North. The cold front is still in the Plains... causing severe weather there today:

Click to enlarge

That cold front will be HERE late Wednesday into Thursday... increasing our chances for rain and thunderstorms. We are not expecting any organized severe weather, but we could see some heavier downpours out of this system, as it lingers for a couple of days. We'll be watching it and update the forecast as we go along!

Below are some pictures of the Walk for Women's Wellness on Sunday. It was one of the biggest crowds EVER!! Thanks to everyone who took part. Jeff Brown from our Art Department took these great shots:

Enjoy the evening!

High Pressure Protection

2008-05-04T20:34:00.004-05:00

The High pressure system that worked in on your Sunday looks like it's going to keep things pretty nice here in the Miami Valley for the next few days. These systems typically bring cool mornings (40's) and comfortably dry afternoons (60's,70's) this time of year... so soak it up! Before long we'll all be talking about the heat!

Looking at the extended range across the country we do have an onslaught of systems. The first two will just barely glance us.... actually going up and over the ridge then sliding back south once they get to the east coast. But by Mid week the ridge will begin to break down and a larger area of low pressure will build in from the west. This system seems to be cut off from the main flow... meaning it is not your typical severe weather maker. Southern states could see some tornadic weather... and for us, the possibility of a few stronger storms exists... but mostly for hail. Storm system #4 could give us some rain on Saturday.... but we'll have to watch and see how this all pans out.

Warm Sector

2008-05-01T16:35:00.005-05:00

We are very warm today... with highs in the mid-70s across much of the area. The official high at Dayton International Airport has made it to 76 degrees. Why so warm? We are in the WARM SECTOR.

Air around LOW PRESSURE moves counter-clockwise. Take a look at the map below:

Click to enlarge

You can see LOW PRESSURE in the Central Plains. Ahead of it, we are enjoying the Southerly winds, and the warmer air. It will also start to feel more humid on Friday, and the threat of showers... maybe a thunderstorm... increases.

Early Saturday, we will still be in the WARM SECTOR, so we will start the weekend mild and muggy. A weakening line of thunderstorms will likely be moving in during the early morning hours. This line should move back OUT of the area between 8 and 10am. Then we'll enjoy a nice dry period... before showers and thunderstorms move back in for the late afternoon/evening.

Sunday, we are in the cooler air behind this storm... so we'll see highs near 60-degrees... and dry weather.

Have a good one!
Jamie

Nice Thursday!

2008-04-30T20:50:00.002-05:00

A warm front will pop north of Dayton overnight, and that will allow MUCH warmer air to move into the Miami Valley. Both Thursday and Friday, we will enjoy high temperatures in the 70s.

But, of course... with the warm weather... comes the threat of showers and thunderstorms. Right now, the best chance will be Friday night into Saturday morning. But really at any time after Thursday night... we could see rain.

Unfortunately, this comes just in time for the weekend... when there are a lot of outdoor events going on! Here are a couple that some of the 2 News Team will be participating in:

Derby Day Dash
9am Saturday
5/3 Plaza Downtown
Dan Edwards... playing the music, pumping up the crowd!

Walk for Women's Wellness
2pm Sunday
Carillon Park
Many Channel 2 Personalities will be there! Some will be walking, others will be grilling and serving refreshments. I may even bring Claire to this one, if it's nice enough! :)

There is also the Flying Pig Marathon going on... down in Cincinnati. That is Sunday morning, 6:30am. Michelle Kingsfield is actually RUNNING the half-marathon! She is a machine! ;) Good luck to anyone else running (or walking!).

We hope to see you out and about this weekend!
Jamie

Storm #2 Is Winding Down

2008-04-28T20:45:00.002-05:00

From last night's blog... you know that Storm #2 is affecting us this evening. It is actually winding down... and any thunderstorms moved out of the area earlier this evening. We are just left with showers, and cooler temperatures!

Here is a look at Live Doppler 2X around 6pm this evening... notice the two stronger thunderstorms in Montgomery County:

Both of those thunderstorms produced hail. Most of our hail reports were pea-sized hail... or dime-sized hail. We did have one report of three-quarter inch hail with the Northern storm. The Southern storm moved through Beavercreek Township, and our weather checker, Bill Telzerow took this picture of the hail:

Note that there is NO rain falling in this picture... it's ALL HAIL! He had 3/8" depth by the time the thunderstorm moved through. Amazing!

Now it will feel colder for 36 hours or so. Lows tonight will dip into the mid-30s... Tuesday afternoon we will be in the upper 40s to near 50... and Tuesday night we dip to near freezing!

At least it will be dry!
Jamie

Colder Air Coming

2008-04-27T19:50:00.006-05:00

After a pretty nice weekend, things will be changing... pretty much overnight! There are 2 systems we are watching:

The first one is a stalled front to our Southeast. A wave of Low Pressure will ride along this front, keeping us with the chance of a few spotty showers tonight and Monday morning. The best chance of rain will be in the Southeastern viewing area this evening... Warren, Clinton, Green and Clark counties. And better chances for everyone overnight.

Monday afternoon, we will be in between the two systems... but we still can't rule out a spotty shower, maybe a thunderstorm.

Monday evening, system number 2 drops in. That brings the chance of showers and thunderstorms back UP... but the rain should be gone by Tuesday morning.

Not only will we have to deal with these two storms, but we also have to deal with the colder air they will pull into the Miami Valley! We'll see our highs only near 50-degrees as we start the week. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, we'll be pretty close to freezing. Wednesday is the better morning to see frost. Take care to protect your tender vegetation!

As temperatures are dropping... let's look ahead to this summer! It's time for the FIRST 90-DEGREE DAY CONTEST! How do you play? Well, you must guess what day we will hit 90-degrees for the first time this summer. Please follow these directions. If you do not follow them, your entry will be incomplete...

1) NAME
2) CONTACT INFO... email or phone number
3) DATE and TIME OF DAY you think we will reach 90-degrees for the first time this year... at the Dayton International Airport NWS station.
4) Send entries to jjarosik@wdtn.com
5) Entry deadline: May 15th

There will be a small prize for the winner... so have fun and good luck!!
Jamie

Changes Ahead and 90-Degree Contest!

2008-04-24T19:56:00.008-05:00

Greetings Bloggers!

I hope you enjoyed another beautiful day! We once again made it into the upper 70s, to right around 80 degrees this afternoon. But changes are on the horizon!

A warm front came through the Miami Valley this afternoon. There's not a huge amount of warmer air moving in... but there IS more HUMID air moving in! Our dew points were in the 40s early this evening, but they're on the rise. As of 9pm, we are up to a 50 degree dew point.

**Mini-lesson on dew point and relative humidity**
You often hear us talk about dew points and relative humidity. A dew point is actually a better measure of moisture in the air. Dew points above 65 degrees will make it feel "sticky" and uncomfortable outside... you will really FEEL the humidity. So the dewpoint is directly related to the amount of moisture in the air. On the other hand, relative humidity has to do with how close the air is to saturation. When relative humidity is above 70 or 80%... it will feel moist outside. BUT not necessarily uncomfortable. If you have a high RH *and* a high dew point, THEN it would feel uncomfortable.

Does that make sense, or did I just confuse everyone??

Anyway, dew points are now going up... we could be close to a 60-degree dew point Friday. So it will definitely feel more humid!

Along with the moist air, we have a couple of short-waves moving through... and a front to deal with. Here's the break-down...

Late tonight, a 500mb short wave will be affecting us:

Click to enlarge

So that means the chance of rain is there late tonight and early Friday morning.

During the afternoon, it looks like there will be a good chunk of dry weather!

But Friday night into Saturday morning, a cold front approaches:

Click to enlarge

That will bring more showers and thunderstorms as the front comes through.

The weekend looks wet at the beginning (SAT AM) and end (SUN PM)... with dry weather in between. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, with highs in the 60s.

OK... so it's that time of year again! Time for the FIRST 90-DEGREE DAY CONTEST! How do you play? Well, you must guess what day we will hit 90-degrees for the first time this summer. Please follow these directions. If you do not follow them, your entry will be incomplete...

1) NAME
2) CONTACT INFO... email or phone number
3) DATE and TIME OF DAY you think we will reach 90-degrees for the first time this year... at the Dayton International Airport NWS station.
4) Send entries to jjarosik@wdtn.com
5) Entry deadline: May 15th

There will be a small prize for the winner... so have fun and good luck!!
Jamie

Unseasonably Warm

2008-04-23T21:02:00.002-05:00

Today our high temperatures were near 80-degrees across much of the area! Some of our Weather Checkers called in with highs in the lower-80s. The normal high for this time of year is 64 degrees... so we are running WAY above average!

Thursday we'll once again be in the upper 70s during the afternoon. We're expecting the same on Friday... and if we see more sun Friday... watch out! It could be even warmer.

Our next chance of rain comes with an approaching COLD FRONT. This will affect us Thursday night, part of Friday, and some showers could linger into early Saturday. Behind this front, we cool slightly for the weekend.

Next week, however, is looking *significantly* cooler! Highs in the 50s... lows in the 30s. Eeek! There is even one morning that looks like we could drop near freezing. It is something to watch!

Jamie

Cut off Low.... Finally on the move! Plus some nice pictures (I promise no snakes!)

2008-04-20T20:12:00.007-05:00

While the past weekend wasn't a wash out... we did see our fair share of rain... mostly occurring in the eastern half of the Valley on Saturday afternoon.

Here are some of the totals from our Wx Checkers.

-Beavercreek .3"

-Brookville .12"

-Cedarville .28"

-Eaton .06"

-Greenville .12"

-Middletown .2"

-Wapakoneta .2"

This past weekends unsettled weather was caused by a "Cut off Low". The Jetstream usually steers our storm systems causing them to move fairly rapidly from west to east. With the jetstream well to the north this system as just meandered to the southeast.

Now onto the good news. Since this system is cut-off.... it also doesn't have cold air to flood in behind it... so as soon as the clouds leave temperatures will be back to normal... and in some cases above!

Here are some pictures sent in from David & Gail Berkebile! They were taken at Cox Arboretum in West Carrollton! WOW gorgeous!

All Shook Up

2008-04-18T16:42:00.004-05:00

So did any of you feel the earthquake? I had no idea we even had one until I turned on 2 News this morning. Bummer! I have always wanted to feel an earthquake! I was half-hoping it happened at 3am... because that is when Claire woke up. I thought maybe she felt it, but no such luck... it happened at 5:37am. We both slept through it!

The earthquake's epicenter was just southwest of Vincinnes, Indiana. There was also an aftershock around 11:14am. Both of these waves were felt within one minute here in Dayton. Amazing!

According to the U.S. Geological Service, the quake happened in the Illinois Basin, the Ozark Dome Region. The largest earthquake previously measured in this area was a 5.4 back in 1968. Moderately damaging earthquakes happen every decade or two... and smaller earthquakes can be felt once or twice a year.

Earthquakes in the Central U.S. differ from those on the West Coast. First, East of the Rockies... an earthquake can be felt over an area TEN TIMES bigger than one on the West Coast. That's what we saw today... see the graphic below... this one was felt up to 400 miles away!

This isn't the first big earthquake we've felt here in the Miami Valley. Did you know the State of Ohio has a special seismic network... 16 stations... where volunteers track earthquakes? There are 2 stations here in the Miami Valley... in Clark and Mercer Counties.

Anyway, two of the most notable quakes rattled Shelby County just a week apart in 1937. The most intense of these measured 5.5 on the Richter Scale, and did some significant damage. The most recent tremor shook Auglaize County 20 years ago. It was a 4.6 earthquake.

Unfortunately, we may never know exactly what fault caused the earthquake. Here in the Midwest, the fautls are interlaced and so deeply buried over the generations, that few earthquakes can be connected to a specific fault.

Just some interesting facts! Let us know your experience, if you felt today's earthquake!

As for the weather... enjoy this evening... because over the weekend, things will change. Our storm is set to move in, bringing the chance of rain late tonight. We could even see a few thunderstorms Saturday afternoon... possibly with some small hail. Sunday we'll see the chance of rain for the first part of the day, then a slow drying trend. The sun and 70s are back... wouldn't you know it... for MONDAY. Ugh!

Have a super Friday night and a great weekend!

Jamie

One More Day...

2008-04-17T20:13:00.007-05:00

Today's highs were well into the 70s across the area, with plenty of sunshine! We have one more day of this beautiful weather to enjoy before things change for the weekend. A slow-moving storm will finally get here on Saturday! Tonight, it is bringing rain to the parts of the Plains and Midwest:

You might look at that map and think the clouds (and even the rain) would be here sooner than Saturday. But the upper winds are flowing in our favor! Notice below, the 500 mb flow:

Click to enlarge

That big ridge is helping us squeeze one more nice day outta this one! Air flows clockwise around high pressure. And this strong ridge is transporting the moisture in more of a North-South direction, than East-West. BUT the ridge will continue to move East as the storm advances... and eventually... the rain will move in. The timing isn't the best... it will be here Saturday, with scattered showers (maybe even a rumble or two of thunder), and cooler temperatures. Not the best weather for the Sugar Maple Festival in Bellbrook! Take along the raincoats to the parade! Sunday looks like it may start off with some showers, but we should dry out in the afternoon.

Now for some interesting facts in from NOAA, regarding the month of March!

The average global land temperature last month was the warmest on record and ocean surface temperatures were the 13th warmest. Combining the land and the ocean temperatures, the overall global temperature ranked the second warmest for the month of March. Global temperature averages have been recorded since 1880.

The average temperature for March in the contiguous United States ranked near average for the past 113 years. It was the 63rd warmest March since record-keeping began in the United States in 1895.

Have a good one!
Jamie

70s... and Tree Pollen!

2008-04-16T20:28:00.002-05:00

As the storm in the Plains continues to slowly move our way... we will continue to warm up! We'll see highs in the 70s on Thursday and Friday! Great weather! We'll also still see plenty of sunshine, but some clouds are possible... and they'll be more numerous on Friday.

The only downside to all of this is... with the warm, sunny weather comes higher pollen counts. And if trees are your allergy... you may have a rough couple of weeks! Tree pollen is HIGH... checking in at 292. Trees can kick off allergies even if they are not on your property... as trees release large amounts of pollen that can be carried miles away from the originial source. If you have tree pollen allergies... some things to keep in mind:

* Avoid being outside in the morning, when tree pollen is highest. Save the outdoor activities until later in the day, when it subsides.

* Tree pollen is usually lower after a good rain, save longer outdoor

* Keep windows closed and use the A/C if needed

* Take a shower or bath before bed, as pollen can be carried into the house on your clothes or hair. (and even on your pet!)

Well, there is just not much to talk about tonight, with this great weather! I hope you all get to enjoy it!

Jamie

A "Wow" Week!

2008-04-15T16:39:00.003-05:00

Well, we started off a little cloudy and cool on Monday, but this week will have you saying WOW before long (if you're not already saying it!).

Today we enjoyed wall-to-wall sunshine, and that trend will continue for a couple more days. Wednesday morning will feature temperatures in the lower-to-mid 30s across the area... so there could be patch frost. But the afternoon looks fabulous, with a high in the upper 60s! Again, with plenty of sunshine!

The reason? A large area of high pressure is controlling our weather this week. Take a look at the surface map below. Notice the high right near us, and to our West... the VERY warm temperatures across the Central and Northern Plains today:

Click to enlarge

That warmer air is heading our way! As the high shifts East, the storm in the Plains will also advance our way. Before it gets here, we should enjoy at least two days with 70-degree readings in the afternoon. Right now, it looks like that storm will affect us Saturday... bringing clouds, some showers and cooler temperatures.

Have a great evening!

Jamie

Cold Mornings Monday and Tuesday!!! We'll see some frost!

2008-04-13T20:25:00.004-05:00

More Cold weather on the way for Monday and Tuesday morning! We are even surrounded by freeze warnings!
But don't let this map fool you! We may not be under a freeze warning but we will see below freezing temperatures. (So if you do have a plants that have sprouted you may want to protect them the next few nights).

Obviously if the National Weather Service issued freeze warnings every time the temperature dropped below 32 we would be under one for the entire winter. They stop issuing Frost/Freeze warnings after the first widespread killing frost in the fall and then set dates for the start of the growing season.
The map below is a guideline for the growing season here. Since it is past April 11th in southern Ohio, they have issued Freeze Warnings. Because our growing season here doesn't technically start until April 21st... we will not see Frost or Freeze warnings until after that date.

Thunderstorms Moving In

2008-04-10T21:24:00.005-05:00

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the Miami Valley as the night goes on. Any thunderstorm will have the potential to produce heavy downpours, and gusty winds. This strong Spring storm has produced another active weather day across the Central part of the country. Today, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa and Illinois have received most of the violent weather:

Click to enlarge

And the thunderstorm activity will move East as the night goes on. We expect a line of stronger thunderstorms to move through the Miami Valley between 3am and 8am. Again, that time of day we typically see a weakening trend in ongoing thunderstorm activity... but it is something to watch. We will let you know if we get any watches or warnings on Channel 2.

Here is a look at the 700 Relative Humidity (in green) and Omega (red lines) forecast for Friday at 8am. Omega has to do with vertical forcing (rising) of air:

Click to enlarge

That shows the line of thunderstorms we are expecting in the morning. Tune in to Brian Davis in the morning, he will be tracking it all on Live Doppler 2x! The morning show goes from 5am-7am, and you can see him doing cut-ins to the Today Show after that.

After the morning line of thunderstorms, we are still looking at the potential for more development during the afternoon. It will depend on how much we destabilize... how much sun we see. The more sun, the greater the potential for stronger storms. So stay tuned!

Jamie

Strong Spring Storm

2008-04-09T20:21:00.004-05:00

A cold front came through today... that brought the morning rain... most places saw a tenth of an inch of rain or less. And what a GREAT afternoon! We were in a "cloud-free zone" today... that helped us warm into the 60s. It felt nice!

But it has been a Severe day out in the Southern Plains! Just take a look at the Tulsa, Oklahoma radar this evening...

Click to enlarge

There are quite a few TORNADO WARNINGS! A strong spring storm is to blame for the active weather there. You can see it in the NAM model below in Texas:

Click to enlarge

Notice our cold front is off to our East... but there is a warm front to our South. That strong storm in Texas will lift the warm front into the Miami Valley on THURSDAY. That means the winds will pick up in the afternoon, and we do have the chance of some scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. It will not rain all day, however... we will have some dry weather... and even a little sunshine!

Now take a look at the storm as it strengthens and moves northeast on Friday morning:

Click to enlarge

There will likely be a squall line way ahead of the cold front... moving into our neck of the woods. Thankfully, the timing is not the best for severe weather... as it looks to come through during the early morning... but it is something to watch. The cold front also lags behind the morning rain, and we could see additional development during the afternoon hours. Right now, the SPC has us in a SLIGHT RISK area for Friday. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats!

We will continue to monitor the situation, and track the storm with Live Doppler 2X! Stay tuned to Channel 2!

OH, I almost forgot... Claire got some better sports gear:

Yeay! She looks much happier here! :)

Jamie

Prettier Spring Pic

2008-04-08T20:34:00.003-05:00

Here is a picture that's a *little* more pleasant than Erik's post below! A nice sign of spring that doesn't make some of us squirm! ;)

This was sent in by Wilma and Joe Walker of Richmond, IN. I am seeing lots of daffodils up around the area. It reminds me of a song we used to sing in nursery school. It went,

Spring is Here!
Spring is Here!
How do you think I know?
The Daffodils are Blooming...
So I Know it Must be So!

Funny, what you remember! ;) We went on a couple of walks this weekend... as did much of the Miami Valley, I believe! It seemed everyone was outside... it was nice to see people out and about again! Claire absolutely LOVES being outside! It is a little bright for her, though... so I am going to head out to find her a little bonnet soon...

Anyway, daffodils are not the only flowers I have seen, however. I also noticed a few yards where people were actually planting flowers already! Be careful if you do this... as we will LIKELY be dropping below freezing over the weekend or early next week. We always say the best bet is to wait until after Mother's Day to do any seasonal planting! If you do get that itchy green thumb, remember you will have to cover your tender plants, or bring them in if they are in pots.

Before the big drop in temperature, we will have a slight cool-down, and the chance of rain goes along with it. Expect a few showers tonight and early Wed morning... maybe a rumble of thunder. Highs will be in the 60s Wed afternoon. There is also a chance of rain Thursday and a better chance on Friday. Friday we will also have to watch for the potential for some stronger thunderstorms. We'll be tracking that all week!

Enjoy the night!
Jamie

Warm... but a strong system will move in by late week

2008-04-06T20:02:00.005-05:00

Gotta love these beautiful Spring days!
Temperatures in the 60's / 70's...

And it looks like these mild temperatures are going to stick around until this system moves through Thursday and Friday(see pic below). This area of low pressure is going to be a strong one with heavy rain & thunderstorms possible Thursday into Friday. Current models show the system rolling through Friday morning, if that is the case severe weather potential could be fairly low... but if the system comes through early.. (Thursday night) or late (Friday afternoon) things could be pretty active here in the Ohio Valley! The system is a good five days away, so we'll have plenty of time to watch & track it.

P.S. Just to show you how strong this front is... the same model also shows flurries on Saturday with highs in the low to mid 40's... so lets hope things change!! but don't go planting crazy just yet!

Also wanted to post some pictures that were sent in!

Watch your step if your in the garden!

These pictures were sent in by Jean up in Greenville Ohio! Thanks!

High & Dry!

2008-04-04T16:38:00.003-05:00

Before we get to the GREAT weekend forecast... let's take a look at some rainfall totals called in by our Weather Checkers:

Beavercreek: .7"

Covington: .85"

Eaton: .5"

Greenville: .8"

Kettering: .8"

Middletown: .8"

New Paris: .65"

Piqua: .7"

Sidney: .8"

So anywhere from a half inch to almost an inch across the area. And now the rain is done, and we will have a couple of days to dry out! High pressure is building in for the weekend:

High pressure promotes SINKING air... you could say the air under high pressure is HEAVY. I always tell the kids... the H can stand for HEAVY or HAPPY... because high pressure usually brings sunshine! :) So that's what we'll be dealing with over the weekend... happy weather! Sunday looks to be fabulous, with our highs climbing into the mid-60s!!

Sooooo that's it! Short blog tonight when nothing is really going on. I hope you all enjoy the weekend... and maybe we'll see you in Piqua for the Deal or No Deal auditions?!

Jamie

Rainy Night

2008-04-03T20:12:00.006-05:00

Greetings, Bloggers!

After a few late afternoon showers, there is just a light drizzle across the area this evening. But showers and thunderstorms are increasing to our Southwest. We are expecting this rainfall to move into the Southern viewing area during the early morning hours. If you live in Butler, Warren or Clinton counties... (especially in the Southern part of these counties)... you have the best chance for heavy rain. That is where we have a FLOOD WATCH in effect. We still may have a few good downpours here in the Dayton area, so it is something we will be tracking overnight and into the morning. Don't be surprised to hear thunder overnight... again, especially south of Dayton!

Look how active Live Doppler 2X is this evening:

All of those yellow/orange squiggles are lightning strikes... quite a few! The white lightning strike is the most current (as of 9:30pm). Again, most of this activity will stay to the south of Dayton. You can check out Live Doppler 2X anytime online!

We'll start Friday with rain in the area, then as the afternoon wears on and our storm moves off to the east... we'll start to dry out. The clouds look like they will hang around for a good chunk of the day, and it will be breezy. Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s on Friday.

The weekend is looking pretty nice right now! Dry weather, and the return of spring temperatures! I am so excited for the warmer weather... I am dying to start running again! I have been a slacker, because I don't want to take Claire out in the cold. I have a jogging stroller, and I am ready to go the second it is warm enough! That just might be on Sunday! :)

Have a good one!
Jamie

Another Soaker

2008-04-02T20:56:00.004-05:00

It was a beautiful, cool spring day... oh I have to stop there and giggle a little! :) If you were watching the CW news at 10pm last night, I said FALL day on the air. Jack caught me, and Michelle said something at the end of weather like, "We were laughing at the fact it's going to be a FALL day"... I didn't even realize I *said* it... it just came out, naturally, because of the cooler temperatures. :)

ANYWAY... Spring will be back in all of our minds as 1) temperatures climb a bit over the next few days... and 2) Spring rains return. As I mentioned yesterday, we have the potential for heavy rain across the area. We'll start Thursday dry, but during the afternoon hours, showers will develop. They will increase in intensity as we go into the evening, and it's not just us! Take a look at the FLOOD WATCHES & WARNINGS issued to our Southwest...

Click to enlarge

More than 4 or 5 inches could fall on parts of the watch areas... which have already seen quite a bit of flooding this spring! Here in the Miami Valley, we could be added into a flood watch as the next day wears on... so be ready for that. I am still thinking the southern viewing area will get the heaviest rain. We'll keep you posted!

In the meantime, we should be into the mid-50s tomorrow afternoon... and there are some 60s showing up in the 7-day forecast!! Yahoo! We'll talk more about that tonight at 11pm and tomorrow during our 90-minutes of news beginning at 5pm! Have a great night!

Jamie

High Pressure

2008-04-01T21:59:00.004-05:00

High Pressure will build in for Wednesday, bringing clear skies to the region. That means lots of sunshine! Temperatures will continue to be cool, with highs near 50 degrees... but it will feel better than today because the sun will be out in full force, and we won't have those gusty winds!

We are already tracking another storm for the end of the week. This one has the potential to dump some heavier rains across parts of the Midwest! Right now, the models are trending the heaviest rain just South of us... down towards Cincinnati. That is the same area that saw the heaviest rains the LAST time we had a big event like this. Not good. Take a look at the NAM and GFS rainfall forecasts below:

NAM forecast, click to enlarge

GFS forecast, click to enlarge

The GFS is bringing a little more rainfall to the Dayton area, but right now I'd say one-to-two inches is a good bet. South of town, maybe more. We will continue to tweak the forecast as we get new data in... so stay tuned!!

The areas with the MOST rainfall potential... upwards of five-six inches Indiana, Illinois, Missouri... and all along the Mississippi River... are again the same areas that got it last time around... so we may be hearing about a loooot of flooding soon!

(And I am working on getting Claire into some better sports gear... so stay tuned for that, too. Ha!) :)

Jamie

Overnight

2008-03-31T22:14:00.003-05:00

Here is a look at LIVE DOPPLER 2X around 11:30 this evening. No other Live radar in town looked this good... as we are a thousand-times more powerful here... giving you the first look at these showers/thunderstorms:

So these showers and thunderstorms will affect us through the early morning hours. The strongest storms will stay to our South...

Click to enlarge

...but between 2am and 7am... we do have the potential for some stronger wind gusts as the thunderstorms move through.

The REAL severe weather has been in Oklahoma, Missouri and Arkansas today. Here is a look:

Click to enlarge

In the Springfield, Missouri area today there were several reports of a tornado on the ground.
First, a storm spotter saw a brief touchdown... and then additional sightings had the tornado intensifying while it was on the ground. The tornado snapped powerlines along one of the highways there, and debris from a barn was reportedly found a quarter-mile away from the barn's original location!

Anyway, we will start Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms in the area during the early morning hours. Things will turn a little cooler later in the day... as winds shift in from the West.

Is anyone planning on going to the Deal or No Deal casting call this Saturday?? Isn't that exciting that they are coming here?! It is going to be a huge event... you should all come and try out for the show!!

Jamie

Here Comes the Rain Again

2008-03-30T20:47:00.004-05:00

HERE COMES THE RAIN AGAIN!

Great song... gotta love the 80s! :)

Anyway, rain IS making a return to the Miami Valley, and along with it, we'll enjoy warmer temperatures! Take a look at the evening surface map. There is a warm front just to our south. We are in the 40s, with readings in the 50s and 60s on the southern side of the front:

Click to enlarge

That front will pop north overnight, allowing the mild air to move into the area. Expect windy conditions on Monday... and our highs will climb into the 60s! If we see any sunshine... watch out! It could be close to 70! But it looks like clouds will be around most of the day, keeping things in check. (And spotty showers are possible through the day as well.)

Monday night into Tuesday, a strong cold front heads our way. Thunderstorms will form along this front to our West, and move in with the front during the early morning hours. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, with damaging winds being the main threat. The SPC has us JUST outside a Slight Risk of severe weather:

Click to enlarge

We'll have to watch this... as severe weather may become more likely... depending on the timing of the front. Either way, it looks like a pretty good bet my old stomping grounds will see a severe weather event during this period. (I used to work in Kansas City, and they are in the 30% "hatched area"). It will be something to watch!

Have a great "Opening Day"!! Do you believe it's already baseball season??? Look what my husband is doing to my daughter... corrupting her!! Ugh! :)

She's still cute, though!! :)

Jamie

NOAA Weather Radios

2008-03-27T16:26:00.004-05:00

To continue with Severe Weather Awareness Week... let's talk NOAA weather radios today! These small electronic devices act as ALARMS for severe weather!

This is your DIRECT link with the National Weather Service. NOAA Weather Radio broadcasts CONTINUOUS weather information directly from the NWS office in Wilmington. You will hear warnings, watches, forecasts and other hazard information 24 hours a day, 7 days a week!

When there is a WARNING for your area... tones will sound, like an alarm. Your radio will alert you that there is dangerous weather nearby. After the tones, you will hear a voice come on to announce who is in danger, where the storm is heading, what the threat is (ie, wind, hail, or a tornado). NOAA weather radios are particularly valuable to have around at nighttime, when most are sleeping... and not paying attention to the weather. The alarm will wake you up.

They are also very important to have in larger facilities... hospitals, malls, nursing homes, schools, and movie theatres. Remember the Van Wert tornado back in 2002? Thanks to a NOAA Weather Radio, all of the patrons of the local movie theatre stayed safe. A manager heard there was a tornado on the radio, and was able to get everyone into an interior safe place. After the storm had passed, they came out to find CARS and other debris on top of the very seats they had been sitting in! You can check out video of the F4 tornado here:

VAN WERT TORNADO

You can even listen to NOAA Weather Radio online... click HERE.

Now on to the forecast... we have a front located just to the south of Dayton. In fact, it's north of Kettering, Springboro, Centerville, Xenia... as temperatures there are in the 50s. North of the front we are cooler... in the 40s. Here is a look at the afternoon map:

Click to enlarge

A wave of low pressure will work along that front and pass to our South. This will keep us with the chance of rain showers through Friday morning. There may even be a few wet snowflakes mixing in late in the northern counties. Friday afternoon we should get into a bit of sunshine, and we'll see highs in the 40s. Right now, half of the weekend looks good, with another round of rain moving in eventually. We'll talk more about this on our weathercasts tonight and Friday!

Jamie

Definitions!

2008-03-25T15:49:00.003-05:00

Severe weather season is almost here, so it's a great time to refresh our memories with some severe weather terminology. That way, when you hear us talking about watches, warnings and other weather events... you'll know exactly what we mean!

WATCH: When used with tornado or severe thunderstorm, it means that tornadoes or severe thunderstorms are possible. Watches are typically in effect for several hours, and let us know that atmospheric conditions are favorable for severe storms to develop. When a watch is in effect, keep an eye to the sky and WATCH OUT for conditions to worsen!!

WARNING: This means that a severe thunderstorm or a tornado is eminent or is already occuring. Warnings are shorter-duration events... in effect for an hour or less. If a warning is issued for your location... now is the time for ACTION!!

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM: Any thunderstorm that produces winds of 58 mph or higher... and/or hail of 3/4" or larger.

TORNADO: A violently rotating column of air in contact with the ground. The funnel usually decends from the base of a severe thunderstorm.

FUNNEL CLOUD: A violently rotating column of air that decends from the base of a thunderstorm... but it does NOT make contact with the ground. This can sometimes signal the development of a tornado, although not all funnel clouds become tornadoes.

A Statewide tornado drill will be performed tomorrow... WednesdayMarch 26th. This is part of severe weather awareness week in Ohio. The National Weather Service in Wilmington will issue a Special Weather Statement for the drill and the NOAA Weather Radio code used will be the routine weekly test or rwt. As long as yourNOAA Weather Radio is set to alert for the routine weekly test then it should go off for the drill. The drill will be held between 930 am and 10 am.

We're still tracking the potential for heavy rain late Wednesday through early Friday. We look like we could see more than an inch in some locations. We'll keep you posted...

Jamie

SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY AWARENESS WEEK

2008-03-24T17:07:00.003-05:00

Happy Severe Weather Safety Awareness Week! Each day, we will be brining you important information about severe weather here on the Blog... and on Channel 2. The National Weather Service focuses on something different each day... today... we're talking TORNADO FACTS!

* A tornado is a violently rotating column of air extending from a thunderstorm to the ground (and is in contact with the ground!)

* The most violent tornadoes are capable of tremendous destruction with wind speeds of 250 mph or more. Damage paths can be in excess of one mile wide and 50-miles long.

* The average tornado moves from southwest to northeast... but tornadoes have been known to move in any direction!

* The average forward speed of a tornado is 30 mph, but may vary from very little movement to as much as 70 mph.

* Tornadoes can occur throughout the year. The peak season in Ohio is April through July... but the Van Wert tornado struck in November!!

* Tornadoes are most likely to occur between 2pm and 10pm, but they have been known to occur at any hour... day or night.

I always say, "never say never when talking about weather"... so while these are general statements about tornado behavior, anything is possible. Tornadoes can occur anywhere... that is the important thing to remember. I often have people say to me, "I heard (insert city here) is safe from tornadoes because we are in a valley/on a hill/too far north." Well it's not true! Tornadoes can happen in valleys, in hilly areas and north or south.

Thankfully, we will not be dealing with severe weather in the next few days, but we may be dealing with some heavier rain. The models are really different right now, in terms of where that rain may fall. But here is a look at both of them... one puts the heaviest rain north of us... the other to our south... but it is something we will be watching over the next few days. The NAM has the rain north:

Click to enlarge

The GFS keeps the bullseye to our South:

Click to enlarge

The potential for the heavier rainfall would be late Wed into Thurs... we will keep you posted!
Jamie

"The Weekend IS HERE!!"

2008-03-21T20:26:00.004-05:00

Did you ever notice that Mark Allan says "The weekend is here!" at the end of the news EVERY Friday at 11pm? It is music to our ears! After those words are said, we all get to head home to our families for two days of fun! :) This weekend, I will actually be coming back into work Sunday night... Brian is off next week, so I am helping cover Erik's shift... and Erik will be filling in for Brian. Anyway, watch the 11pm tonight, or any Friday, and you will hear Mark's sweet words!

Check out this HUGE temperature contrast across the region this evening:

Wow... do you believe it is actually 62-degrees in Cincinnati at 9:43pm??? Unfortunately, that mild air really won't make it here... there is a storm moving through the region tonight, and that will pull in the colder air (up towards Ft. Wayne and Chicago).

And you can now see why there are WINTER STORM WARNINGS to our North... here is the evening satellite/radar:

They are getting 5 to 10 inches of snow in Southern Michigan tonight! So much for Spring. As that low moves to our South, we will also see a little snow on Saturday. It looks very light for us, though, and we will see less than an inch of snow accumulation. It will be a cold holiday weekend, with highs in the upper 30s. And if you have an early morning Easter egg hunt... or if you're heading to early services... temperatures will be in the lower 20s Sunday morning... brrrrrr!

Have a great weekend!

It's HERE!! :)
Jamie

Winter's Official Motto

2008-03-20T16:25:00.002-05:00

"Here we go again!"

Carl and I have decided that the phrase above is the official motto for this winter! It's storm after storm tracking right near the Miami Valley! This next Low will be moving out of the Northern Plains and into our area late in the day Friday. We'll start off with a little sunshine, but the clouds will increase Friday afternoon, and then showers move in.

To add insult to injury, we may see some snow in the northern counties Friday night... and snow for everyone on Saturday!! Ugh!

Today, NOAA issued a Spring Flood Outlook... putting the entire Miami Valley in the "Above Average" risk for flooding (as if we needed them to tell us that!). The main ingredients are melting snow and heavy rain, both of which we experienced this past week. Here is a look at the national outlook, courtesy of NOAA:

Click to enlarge

The important thing to get from this is to have a flooding safety plan in place, if you live in a flood-prone area. The Red Cross recommends you have written instructions on hand so you know how to turn off your utilities. Also, prepare a first aid kit and keep your essential medications on hand. Batteries and flashlights/radios are also a great idea. And even if you don't live in an area that gets flooding, you may be driving and come across flood waters. Again, we can't say it enough... Turn Around Don't Drown! MOST flooding deaths occur in VEHICLES.

In fact, a woman just died after her RV was swept away from a campground near Wilmington. Clinton County deputies say it was dark when she drove into the water. She tried to walk to safety, and clung to a tree branch where her husband found her just before she died.

Next week is SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS week, and we will be discussing severe weather and how to stay safe on all of our newscasts. We hope you tune in!

Jamie

Rainfall Roundup

2008-03-19T22:30:00.002-05:00

Beavercreek: 4.7"
Bradford: 2.1"
Brookville: 3"
Camden: 3"
Cedarville: 3.13"
Covington: 2"
Eaton: 2.9"
Fairborn: 2.85"
Greenville: 2.09"
Kettering: 4"
Middletown: 4"
New Carlsile: 2.7"
Sidney: 2"
Springfield: 2"
Tipp City: 2.9"
Union: 3.5"
Wapakoneta: 2.1"
Xenia: 3.7"
Yellow Springs: 3.7"

.... And it's over! Thank goodness. We still will be dealing with high water and flooding problems, however... so that part is not over just yet. At least Thursday will be a dry day!

And, HEY... SPRING begins tonight shortly before 2am! Yahoo!!

Jamie

Puddle Ducky's Dream Come True...

2008-03-17T21:25:00.003-05:00

Over the next two days, we will see some serious rainfall across the area! The entire Miami Valley is under a FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday. As Erik mentioned below... the models have been advertising this for awhile now, and this evening's run of the NAM model has even MORE rainfall forecast. Five inches!!

Click to enlarge

While this makes Puddle Ducky very happy...

...it will make many of US very sad! Flooding could become a REAL problem... really fast. Remember the severe flooding our northern counties had not too long ago... plus all the moisture from the big snow storm across the area. The ground is saturated! And there's not going to be anyplace for this rain to go. We will likely see all waterways running high, and street and yard flooding may also be a concern. Remember the saying, "Turn Around, Don't Drown" if you come across a water-covered road.

Here is an email I received today from one of our viewers:

Hi Jamie,
Today our lawn maintenance man (here for the first spring weed & feed treatment) noticed one of our huge (80 feet!!) trees in the hillside behind our house was beginning to up-root. We immediately called a tree service. They left another job to shore up our tree, then came back to remove it.

We were very lucky to have had our lawn service man find it before all the coming rain - it most assuredly would have come down - completely through our house within the next few days.

So, if you have the time, please give a brief warning on the upcoming weather forecasts: very old trees are becoming waterlogged and the earth is so wet, there is a danger of these trees up-rooting.
Thanks!!
Carol & Don

That is a great thing to keep in mind... we always hear about this sort of thing happening when the ground is really saturated. It is also going to be windy Tuesday and Wednesday... so watch out! We will keep you posted on this storm on Channel 2... blog updates as necessary! Send us your rainfall totals... either comment below, or email to weather@wdtn.com. We will try to incorporate them into our graphics!

Thanks,

Jamie

HEADS UP! Heavy Rain is Headed for the Miami Valley!

2008-03-16T19:28:00.013-05:00

After a fairly active winter & our spring like thaw over the last few weeks.... many folks across the Miami Valley are dealing with muddy lawns, swollen streams, and the occasional hum of a basement sump pump. It looks like more rain is on the way so things could get pretty interesting. The graphic above is a conservative estimate of our possible rainfall. The graphic below... is some of the raw data being pored out by the GFS computer model. If you look closely at the legend... the GFS is dumping 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN over a 48 hour period (Monday night - Wednesday night) in western Ohio.

While this is the most extreme of the computer models..... the NAM (another competent model, posted above) is beginning to look more and more like the GFS. Currently the NAM has 2.5-3 inches of rain while just yesterday it was spitting out much less only 1.5 inches.
Since the start of the event is still 24 hours away, and the end of it is 72 hours away... the forecast will need some tweaking, so I'll will continue with my conservative estimates. Just be ready... If there is a bright spot it's that the rain will come over a period of 48 hours. When I was out in South Dakota we had 6.5 inches of rain over the course of an afternoon! Cars were stalled out and in some intersections they were under 3 feet of water!!! and that all happened right across the street from my station!
-Erik

Only 7 Days Till Spring!!

2008-03-13T14:41:00.005-05:00

Sorry for not blogging more this week! Sometimes, after a BIG storm... we need a few days to sort of catch our breath around here! We were overwhelmed with the forecast, the snowfall, and all the weather pictures our viewers sent in! We do look at each one, and enjoy seeing the storms through your eyes. We receive way too many to post them all, but I did include several more at the end of this blog entry. Thanks to everyone, once again!

What a nice taste of spring we have today! We only have a week to go until the season actually changes, but today... many of our weather checkers are calling in with afternoon temperatures in the upper 50s and even lower 60s! I hope you got to enjoy it, because we will turn a bit chilly for the weekend. We are now tracking a small storm that will move right near the Miami Valley on FRIDAY. This will bring us the chance of RAIN beginning late tonight and through Friday afternoon. It will be a cooler day, with the clouds and rain around... expect highs in the 40s.

In from NOAA today... this has been the coolest winter Since 2001 for the U.S. AND the World!
* In the contiguous United States, the average winter temperature was 33.2 degrees F... which is 0.2 degrees F above the 20th century average – yet still ranks as the coolest since 2001.
* It was the 54th coolest winter since national records began in 1895.
* Winter temperatures were warmer than average from Texas to the Southeast and along the EasternSeaboard, while cooler-than-average temperaturesstretched from much of the upper Midwest to the West Coast.
* With higher-than-average temperatures in theNortheast and South, the contiguous U.S. winter temperature-related energy demand wasapproximately 1.7 percent lower than average, based on NOAA’s Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index.
* Winter precipitation was much above average from the Midwest to parts of the West, notably Kansas, Colorado and Utah. Althoughmoderate-to-strong La Niña conditions were present in the equatorial Pacific the winter was unique for the above average rain and snowfall in the Southwest, where La Niña typically brings drier-than-average conditions.

And here are some more pictures from all of you!

"Snowdog"... from Teri in West Manchester

"Burried Buick"... from Pat in Kettering

"Hiding Out"... from The Clarks in Ceaderville

"I'm Sinking!"... from Jennfier StClair

"Beautiful Sky"... from Cindy Pelhan of Huber Heights

"Buck in Snow"... from Alex Bilbrey of Beavercreek

"My Landlord"... from Ryan W. of New Bremen

"Signs of Spring!"... from Jean Davidson, Greenville

"Plowing Through!"... from Michele Ghearing, Miami Twp.

"My New Friend"... William Risk

"Snow Baby"... 10-mo old Carissa... from Shavon

"Easter Snow?" Logan OSkey of Englewood

"I See Snow!"... 19 mo. old Brookelyn... from Susan Ballard

"Putting Out The Fire!"... from Eric Denlinger, Dayton

Have a great day!!
Jamie

More Snowstorm Pictures! Thanks for all the photos!

2008-03-09T19:45:00.018-05:00

Betty Shappie - "Granddaughter having fun in the snow"

Su Berry - "Deck full of fun"

Donita - Picture from Old Dayton Road around the Trotwood area

Anne Booten -"Dog in Snow Cave"

Michele Chearing - "Too Much Snow" Miami Township

Matt Warner - Pic from Catawaba

Darlene Roll - Sundown in Bellefontaine

Carol Overholt - "Snowdog" Sidney

Quintin& Denise Fyfte - "Wolfie" Greenville

Snowfall Totals! They are in... and Impressive!

2008-03-09T18:46:00.006-05:00

This past weekends storm came in #2 on Daytons All-Time Record snows list, beating out the blizzard of 1978.

Here are some local storm totals. Thanks Weather Checkers!

Ohio nailed by some of the heaviest snows! 18" inches in Columbus, 16"in Mansfield, 12.5" in Cleveland!

Storm Winding Down

2008-03-08T14:07:00.012-05:00

Good news, Bloggers!

The heavy snow is coming to an end across the area! As of 2pm, we still have a few heavier pockets around Greene, Clark and down into Warren Counties... but for the rest of us, things have lightened up a great deal. The accumulation snows should come to an end well before 4pm, when our Blizzard Warning expires.

As the snow moves off, however... the sky lightens... and things are BRIGHT out there!! Don't forget the shades when shoveling!

We will still have the problem of blowing and drifting snow as we head through the rest of the day. Winds should relax a bit overnight, though.

I am working on a snowfall totals list, and will post viewer pics here as soon as I can get them online. If you have info to share... comment below, or email us... and you can send photos to that same email at weather@wdtn.com.

"Confused Robin"... Shirley Sebright-Bierley

"Helping Hand"... Nick Halter, New Lebanon

"Clearing the Way"... from Cindy Pelhan, Huber Heights

"Dining Out?"... from Dan Minnix, Kettering

"17 1/2 inch Drifts"... from The Fox's, Xenia

"Traffic Jam"... from 5-year-old Jacob Fox, Xenia

"No Birds Bathing Here!"... from The Morgan Family of Dayton

"Finding Food"... from Erica Mann, Farmersville

"Contrasting Cardinal"... from Chloe Hofstetter, Vandalia

"Path to the Newspaper"... from Bill Schmidt, Farmersville

Does this cat see the bird?? :) "Watching Winter"... from The Mansons, Miamisburg

Wow... that is one brave man! "Lounging in 12 inches"... from Gary Ogg, Casstown

"Winter Scene"... from Kurt and Linda Troutwine, Arcanum

"Don't stand under the awning!" from C. Williams, Miamisburg

"Dare to Come to the Door"... from Jessica Erisman

"Snow Lover"... from Gary Combs, Kettering

"Snow Day!"... Kitty Greek, Centerville

"Little Helpers"... from Ann Aaronson, Bellbrook

"Hard at Work!" Jim Allen, Middletown Weatherchecker

"Burried House"... from Carolyn Morgan, Huber Heights

"Jumping Around" from Ralph and Mary Ann DeVelvis

"Love Birds"... from Eleni Fentress, Harrison Township (formerly of Alaska!)

"Through Rain, Sleet and SNOW"... from Chris Yvette, Dayton

"No Picnic"... from Jen Spurlock

"Ghost Town"... from Ed Oen, Versailles

"Now THAT'S Wind!"... from Dick Paoliello, Xenia

"Happy Travels!"... from Peter Kleysteuber, Fairborn

"Snow Dogs"... from Gidget Hensley, Xenia

"Plowing Through!"... from Cheryl Richter

"Bird Feast!"... from Luanne Baker

Afternoon Update... It's a Blizzard!

2008-03-07T15:46:00.003-05:00

We now have a BLIZZARD WARNING in effect for the entire Channel 2 viewing area. This warning goes until Saturday at 4pm.

A Blizzard Warning is issued when the following conditions are expected to prevail for a period of 3 hours or longer: Sustained wind or frequent gusts to 35 miles an hour or greater; and Considerable falling and/or blowing snow (i.e., reducing visibility frequently to less than ¼ mile)

We will continue to see steady snow, with heavier pockets embedded within. Another 4 to 8 inches of snow will fall overnight into Saturday morning, with total accumulations of 10 to 13 inches by Saturday evening.

The WINDS will be howling in from the North... 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts. This will significantly reduce visibilities, and cause considerable blowing and drifting snow. Travel will be hazardous from here on out. And travel is not recommended unless absolutely necessary! Many counties will be under various levels of snow emergencies and you could get a ticket for being out (and getting stuck) in the dangerous conditions.

Jamie

Morning Update

2008-03-07T08:12:00.006-05:00

A WINTER STORM WARNING is now in effect for the entire viewing area through 4pm Saturday. So while the MORNING drive has not been bad... things will deteriorate as snow moves in by late morning. The AFTERNOON/EVENING drive will be much worse. The new data in overnight continues to put the heaviest snowfall right across the Miami Valley. It now looks like some places, especially south and east of Dayton, could see a foot of snowfall. Here is a look at the GFS overnight run... you are looking at forecast precipitation through Saturday:

Click to enlarge

The totals are liquid amounts, so even if we went with a 10 to 1 ratio... we would still be looking at a good 10 inches for areas South and East of Dayton. But as colder air works in, the ratio should be a little higher, thus higher snowfall amounts.

Blowing and drifting snow will be a huge problem, also, as our winds really crank up during the day. With north winds between 20 and 30mph with higher gusts, we could see some pretty crazy snow drifts by Saturday!

Saturday the snow will continue through the first half of the day. We will be with you with updates as we go along!

Jamie

The Winter Storm Watch Has Been Posted

2008-03-06T09:17:00.002-05:00

No big surprise. It looked pretty obvious yesterday that we are going to be in for some significant winter weather on Friday. Right now, I am calling for 2 to 3 inches of snow by tomorrow evening (say 5 PM) but more snow and even some sleet will fall Friday night and into Saturday. Some places could be looking at snow totals of 6 to 10 inches by the end of this storm, but it is still far too early to say where those locations will be. The problem with this storm will be its long duration.

With the possibility of a little farther westward storm track, freezing rain and sleet could cut down on the totals, especially south and east of Dayton. Strong winds will also create problems with blowing and drifting snow. This could be a big one so stay with us for the latest.

March Madness

2008-03-05T21:16:00.003-05:00

Yes, yet another winter storm is on the verge of bringing snow to the Miami Valley! We get two days (Wed/Thu) to catch our breath before this next one moves in. It is set to affect us beginning Friday morning.

Of course, no forecast has been easy this winter, and here we go again. This storm will be tracking to our South, and then moving up the East Coast. Right now, it looks like we will be on the colder side of the storm. BUT the evening NAM coming in is looking *ever so slightly* warmer... so nothing is set in stone yet.

Many of you are inquiring about how much snow we expect. It's too early to pinpoint numbers, but we will be analyzing the new data tonight and tomorrow morning... and will give a snowfall forecast Thursday. Be sure to tune in! In the meantime, here is a neat way of looking at it. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center puts out this forecast product for each snow event... and I do agree with this one at this point:

Click to enlarge

Reading the map above, the entire viewing area has a 10% chance of seeing at least 4 inches by Friday night. The EASTERN portion of our viewing area has a 40% chance of seeing at least 4 inches! It is amazing that this could happen in March!!

Jamie

Rainy Election Day

2008-03-03T17:31:00.004-05:00

What a nice day today! At least the first half of the day, anyway! We made it up to 66 degrees, officially, and got to see a little sunshine. But that is about to change, as our cold front works through. Rain has spread into the area this evening, and temperatures will drop off quickly! If you are heading out, be prepared for a colder evening!

Unfortunately, RAIN and FREEZING RAIN will rule Election Day. Most of us will be dealing with a cold rain, but to the North (Mercer, Auglaize, Darke, Shelby and Logan Counties) you will be dealing with freezing rain... with some icing. Because of this, a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is in effect for these areas.

The entire Miami Valley is under a FLOOD WATCH, as the rain will come down heavy at times.

The cold front moves through this evening, then a low pressure center will develop to the southwest of us and move along the front. This will keep us with the potential for heavy rain right through Tuesday.

Something interesting with this storm... usually we can use the 540 thickness or the 850 temperature as a clue to what type of precipitation we will see. But this time around, the cold air is shallow. So even though it looks relatively warm at 850 mb, surface temperatures will be right around (or just below) freezing at the surface. See the 850 temp below (GFS model)... the 0 degree isotherm (purple) is way north of Dayton, with a +3 degree isotherm near us:

Click to enlarge

Same with the 540 line... it is way north:

Click to enlarge

As for how much rain we see... well, some spots could see up to 3 inches! The GFS forecast is below:

Click to enlarge

I hope the crummy weather will not prevent you from voting!

Jamie

Weather Hype & Meteorology

2008-02-26T21:00:00.001-05:00

First off, let me start by agreeing with many of the posters. The Media does over hype these events. A Meteorologist comes out with snowfall forecasts with certain constraints attached to it. As you pass that message along a few editors/producers change a couple words, add some adjectives, leave out some “coulds” / “ifs”... and all of a sudden you have a nice attention grabbing head line… which can be misleading and sometimes even a false.
Not to pick on the Dayton Daily News (all media does this)… but they had an excellent example on Tuesday morning February 26th. The front page headline had in bold black type "Up to 7 inches of snow coming." While the title wasn’t false (considering their forecast)… it was very misleading. Even after reading the article it seems like we are all going to get 5-7 inches total. The article doesn’t say who will see that amount or when the majority of it is due. If you happen to pick up the paper at 5pm Tuesday afternoon, you may even think the majority of the snow is coming that night. I’m positive that if that article was presented to a meteorologist before it was printed… he would not have allowed his name to go in the paper.
Bringing the microscope over to Channel 2, we nailed many parts of the forecast. The forecast timing of this system was dead on, from the start time of the rain, to the change over to ice and snow, even the timing of the heaviest snow was right on. The temperature forecast was also correct as well as the track of the system. As for snow… and as you can tell, it is very challenging to forecast and often times has to be updated during the event. After initially forecasting 2-4 inches of snow for the Dayton area Monday night, (well below that of our rivals) Brian Davis during the morning show assessed the situation pulling back forecast totals to 1-2 inches. We even had the amount of snow correct…. Dayton and areas around did see an inch to an inch and a half of snow. But it didn’t stick.
Forecasting snowfall totals is like building a house of cards where each card is a certain assumption; if one of those assumptions is false… the amount of snow you see on your front lawn will vary from the forecast amount. Today’s bad card was insolation. The late February sunshine (even through the clouds) was enough to melt the snow on most surfaces. Leading to wet rather then white conditions across the majority of the area.
Personally I would also like you to know that meteorology is not only a job for us at the station but also part of our life. Jamie, Carl, and Brian, are some of the most dedicated meteorologists I have ever known. They are always looking back at their forecasts, taking in new information, and learning the latest techniques to make sure that you continue to get the best forecasts available.

The Winter That Won't End

2008-02-25T17:17:00.002-05:00

Would you believe we are tracking yet another winter storm?? Yes, it's true! We have a WINTER STORM WARNING in effect for much of the area... with a WINTER STORM WATCH out for Greene, Butler, Warren and Clinton Counties.

Once again, the storm will approach from the Southwest... and once again, we are in that "transition zone" between rain and snow. We are usually excited to forecast such storms, but this winter we are getting a little tired of it! ;)

We are expecting this one to start as rain for everyone tonight between 9 and 11pm or so. Then as we head into the EARLY morning hours, we'll see a switch-over to snow in the NORTH. The SOUTHERN counties should see the switch-over to snow by MID-morning.

Totals... 3 to 5" North... with 2 to 4" in the South... by Tuesday evening. We could see additional light snow through Wednesday. So get ready once again!

Here are a few more pictures from viewers like you! :) As always, we thank you for sharing... you can always send them to weather@wdtn.com

"Beautiful Barn!"... from Jean Davidson of Greenville.

"Frozen Falls"... from Jenny Petroski, taken at Charelston Falls.

"Love Dog"... from Wallace Campbell of Cesarscreek Township. (Note the heart marking on the side of the dog!)

"Winter Scene"... from Jim and Teresa Clark of Cedarville.

You can update us on your weather conditions or snowfall totals by commenting below, or sending the information to the email address above. We may use your information or picture on the air!

Thanks again!
Jamie

Winding Down

2008-02-22T17:12:00.005-05:00

Our winter storm is winding down across the area... so we can expect light wintery precipitation to gradually come to an end as we head into the nighttime hours. We still have a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY in effect for most of the Valley, with a FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY for Butler, Warren and Clinton counties... all until midnight. Additional snow/ice accumulations will be light... but we could see up to an inch of snow across the Northern Valley, and under and inch for the South.

Did anyone else have to scrape the car off this morning? That was one of the more challenging cleanings I've had to do! I had about .10" of ice on my entire car... once I got a good chip into it, it was coming off in huge sheets... pretty cool. And those untreated walkways... sort of like an ice rink, no? Things will remain slick, as temperatures stay below freezing through Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon, with a little sunshine, we will climb into the mid-30s... and start to melt some of this wintery mess!

Although it is a *beautiful* wintery mess, as Bill Schmidt from Farmersville shows us:

You can really see the shiny glaze of ice on top of the snowfall. Here are some more pictures from around the area... you can always send them to weather@wdtn.com.

"Snow Accumulation"... from John Miller, West Milton

"Hanging Around"... from Jean Davidson, Greenville

"From the Inside"... from Susan Satterfield, West Carrollton

"Snow Lover"... from Mary Lucas, Bellefontaine Ohio

"Playing Around,"... Harley & Odie playing with their toys.

JJ

Another Winter Storm

2008-02-21T17:27:00.004-05:00

9:30pm UPDATE...
The main area of precipitation is coming to an end, just as the rain/snow line is working up to the Springboro area. It is currently running across Northern Butler, Warren and Clinton Counties. It looks like a big break in the precip, but overnight and into Friday we still have scattered light freezing rain in the forecast. Some of our northern counties may even stay cold enough for all snow Friday. The roads are snowcovered right now across much of the Miami Valley, and any additional freezing rain/drizzle will put a little crunch to the powder we have in place! Be careful!!
JJ

Here we go again... another storm is affecting the region tonight through Friday, and a WINTER STORM WARNING has been issued for Darke, Miami, Champaign, Preble, Montgomery, Clark, Greene, Butler, Warren and Clinton Counties... and Wayne County in Indiana. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is up for Mercer, Auglaize, Shelby and Logan Counties.

We are expecting snow to accumulate anywhere from 1 to 4 inches across the area as the evening wears on. Roads will become snow covered and slippery... and with a transition to sleet/freezing rain as we head through the late evening towards midnight. Then the roads will become icy!

It seems we are always riding that fine line between snow/sleet and freezing rain right through the Miami Valley... and it is the case again with this storm. If the snow does not transition over to freezing rain in Dayton by 9 or 10pm, we will have to adjust our snowfall totals! Stay tuned... and stay safe on the roads!

Jamie

More Viewer Pics

2008-02-20T16:14:00.007-05:00

Send your photos to weather@wdtn.com!

"Partial Lunar Eclipse"... from Rex Kindell

"Lunar Eclipse"... from Holly Hogsett, New Carlisle.

"Wishing for Warmer Weather"... from David Allspaw, Sidney

"Winter Scene"... from Jean Davidson, Greenville

"Spruced Up"... from Michael McDaniel, New Carlisle

"Exploring Snow"... Noah is enjoying the winter wonderland! Sent in by Amanda Becker

"Sharing the Fun" with his dog, Layla!

"On the Hunt"... from Peter Kleysteuber

"Cardinal Rules"... from Shirley Sebright, Springfield

"Snow Day" from Jim Deborde, Huber Heights

"Fun in the snow!" from Lisa G.

"Beauty shot outside Cedarville" from Gloria Grim

"Grant Park" Ken Sheppard, Centerville

"Fun with cookes!" (check out the buttons) from Ronald Lingus

I will post more snow pics this evening!
Thanks for sending them in!!
Jamie

Winter's Back

2008-02-20T10:50:00.005-05:00

Wow!! What a neat little snowstorm. Normally, clippers produce a couple of inches of snow and then open the door for Arctic air to settle in. Today's system was a little more dynamic, and what was really interesting were the snow to liquid ratios. Most of the time here in Ohio, we see ratios of 10 inches of snow to 1 inch of rain. But today's system delivered numbers more like 15 to 20 to 1....maybe even a tad more in a few locations. So, we ended up with a band of 4" to 5.5" along and just south of I70 to about 10 miles north of I70. Check out some of the pictures from our loyal viewers....

Northwest of Springfield

Arcanum

More snow is in the forecast...we will probably have a winter storm watch issued by the end of the day so stay tuned later today and tomorrow.

Clipper Tonight!

2008-02-19T17:26:00.005-05:00

A fast moving Clipper system will affect us late tonight and into Wednesday morning. This will bring some snow to the area. It will be light amounts of snow... but the timing is for the morning commute... so there could be travel problems/school delays. Be sure to tune in to 2 News Sunrise for the latest information... from 5 to 7am!

We are expecting an inch or two out of this system, with some locations south of Dayton getting closer to the three-inch mark. For this reason, there is a SNOW ADVISORY out for Butler, Warren and Clinton Counties through tomorrow morning.

So what is a Clipper? We talk about them all winter long, so let's have a quick lesson! The full name is "Alberta Clipper"... and it typically forms in the Canadian province of Alberta... hence the name! It's a fast-moving low pressure center... with low-end moisture. It is moisture-lacking because it's basically landlocked... far, far away from any big bodies of water. It moves southeast into the United States... and usually comes pretty close to the Dayton area. Even though there's not much moisture to work with, when it swings through, it can produce some heavier periods of snow... reducing visibilities... and droping 1 to 3 inches of snowfall in a quick timeframe.

On the NAM model below... notice how our Clipper will increase in moisture as it heads from Ohio to the Atlantic Ocean:

Click each image to enlarge

Have a good one!

Jamie

Tornado Warnings & Other Wx here in the Valley

2008-02-17T23:36:00.002-05:00

On Sunday afternoon Tornado warnings were issued for both Clark and Champagne Counties. Thankfully an actual tornado never touched down, but all the indications where there... strong rotation, strong updrafts all mixed with thunderstorms that where moving quickly at about 40-45 miles per hour to the North East.
We did have a couple of reports of some small hail though. Pea sized in downtown Daton and the same was reported in New Carlisle from our Weather Checker Vicki.

Peak wind gusts from our Wxbug Network & Weather Checkers
Eaton (from Jonathan) - 47
Jamestown - 45
Kettering - 42
Maria Stein -42
New Madison - 40
Richmond - 39
Sidney - 41
Springfield - 41
Wilmington - 30
Xenia (from Bill) - 42

Sunday's Rainfall Totals from Weatherbug & Weather Checkers
Bellefontaine .51
Brookville (Jason) .75
Cedarville (Dennis) .26
Eaton (Jonathan) .35
Dayton (Downtown) .32
Greenville (Lowell) .39
Jamestown .44
Kettering (Barbara) .3
Middletown (Jim) .2
New Carlisle (Vicki) .5
New Paris (David) .7
Piqua .48
Richmond(IN) .33
Saint Henry .61
Springboro .46
Vandalia .56
Winchester (IN) .35
Wapakoneta (Bud) 1.25

Happy Valentine's Day!!

2008-02-14T16:55:00.007-05:00

Do you remember the Blizzard across the Northern Miami Valley last year around this time? The storm actually hit on February 13th, 2007... but here is what it looked like in Greenville on Valentine's Day... check out those snowdrifts!!

Click to enlarge

Snowlovers this winter have had it a little rough... with us not really having a BIG snowfall. The last two winter storms have mainly been ice-storms, and those are no fun to play in! I will say, winter's not over yet... but the longer we go... the less-likely a big snowstorm will be for us. Sigh.

Anyway, after a few quiet days (thank goodness!)... we are tracking a cold front for FRIDAY! This front will come through in the morning, we'll see windy conditions, and perhaps some light snow showers. We won't see much in the way of accumulation... as the front is sort of moisture-starved by the time it gets to us. The farther north you go, the better the chance of snow... anything should be under an inch.

On Sunday, there is a bigger storm heading our way! It's another one of those Lows to our southwest moving in... BUT this time it is pulling in a LOT of warm air. So it's going to mainly be a rain event for us. There is a chance that *initally* we could see a little freezing rain Sunday morning, but then it would change to all rain as the day goes on. We could see some heavier rain as the storm moves through... below is the GFS rainfall forecast... a half-inch or more is possible:

Click to enlarge

I hope you all had a great Valentine's Day!
Jamie

Tuesdays Winter Storm

2008-02-11T18:05:00.000-05:00

While we are beginning to see snow showers move in across parts of the Miami Valley, most areas will not see the heavy snows until about 5am... so don't be surprised if you wake up (especially if your an early riser) to only light accumulations. I-70 and South will see about 2-4 inches on the ground by 7am (closer to 3-6 in Cincinnati). North of I-70 about 1-3 by 7am with the lightest amounts up around Auglaize and Mercer Counties. The heaviest snows will move into the southern Miami Valley during the morning commute and will last until about10am. The snowfall map below has the snowfall totals for the area by Noon. Locations north of Wapak & Celina will be moisture starved with this system... only picking up a marginal 1-3 but as you head south moisture becomes more abundant. Sidney, Urbana, and Greenville will remain all snow picking up 2-4. Currently.....Dayton, Springfield, and Eaton look like they will remain mostly snow with a short period of sleet mixing in 6-8 inches total. Cincinnati has plenty of moisture... but it looks as though they'll be changing over to sleet and freezing rain during the morning commute holding down totals.
As this complicated storm continues to move into the valley we will continue to update the forecast.

If you have any comments, questions, pictures or totals that you would like to share please post them below. We would love to see them! If your a little shy you can also email them to weather@wdtn.com

Weekend Wrap... and we could see significant snow/ice Monday night

2008-02-10T20:49:00.000-05:00

As the cold front moved through Saturday night it didn't have to much moisture to work with. It did however have a few light rain showers mixing at times with some wet snow flakes. We even had a few lightning strikes pop up in Darke, Auglaize and Logan on Live Doppler 2x! While many of us had winds around 30-40 mph during the actual frontal passage here are a few of the higher gusts.
Ohio Hi-Point Career Center, Bellefontaine, Wind Gust 45.60 10:32:00 PM
Urbana JHS, Urbana, Wind Gust 49.98 11:27:00 PM
The winds below just occured between 8am -Noon Sunday morning as the heart of the arctic air moved in.
Marion Local ES, Maria Stein, Wind Gust 46.47 8:07:00 AM
St. Christopher School, Vandalia, Wind Gust 47.13 8:27:00 AM
Springfield News-Sun, Springfield, Wind Gust 46.26 8:51:00 AM

Greenon HS, Springfield, Wind Gust 46.69 9:18:00 AM

Greeneview HS, Jamestown, Wind Gust 48.45 9:13:00 AM
O.R. Edgington ES, Englewood, Wind Gust 45.16 9:59:00 AM
Springfield News-Sun, Springfield, Wind Gust 46.69 11:53:00 AM

Monday night into Tuesday could see significant snows / ice

The entire Miami Valley is already under a Winter Storm watch... why? Well it looks as though Monday night into Tuesday could be a little on the rough side. As usual it all depends on the track of the system. The NAM (posted below) is the weaker of the two solutions keeping the cold air in place and also keeping most of our precipitation as snow. Generally around 1-3 inches. The GFS however brings in a much stronger system... starting us off as snow Monday night putting about 2-4 inches of snow on the ground before mixing in some freezing rain and sleet for the southern half of the valley and keeping things as snow up around Auglaize, Mercer, and Darke counties. Usually about 24 hours before a storm we have a pretty good idea about what is going to happen. With this one the track, the freezing line, and the intensity are all still up in the air. We'll have to wait for Monday to nail down numbers... but either way it looks like Tuesday mornings commute is going to be a messy one!

Here Comes the Cold Again...

2008-02-08T16:08:00.000-05:00

Another Arctic Cold Front will be dropping into the Miami Valley as we head through the weekend. Go figure, right?!

We actually have a weak front coming through tonight (Friday)... this one will bring the chance of some light rain showers and windy conditions. But there's not really any COLD air behind it... we'll be in the 40s again for Saturday afternoon.

On Saturday night, however... things change!! The Arctic front drops in and we will see a sharp drop in temperatures through early Sunday morning. Wind chill values will be below zero again, and we will spend most of Sunday afternoon in the teens. Below is a look at where the Arctic front is NOW, and as it is forecast to come through Saturday night:

Click to enlarge

Notice the aqua shading behind the front... that is windspeed in knots. It is going to get quite windy after the frong comes through... so hold onto your hats!

Happy Birthday to my husband!! :)
Jamie

Become a Storm Spotter!

2008-02-06T16:13:00.000-05:00

Hello, Bloggers!

As one of you put it... what a wild couple of days! Last night, we had the tornado watch for the southern counties... and had a few severe thunderstorm warnings issued after midnight. We have lots of wind damage reports across the area... One of our Eaton Weathercheckers sent us this picture of wind damage at his place:

Photo: Jonathan Marker

Not only is the tree uprooted, but I don't really think he usually has a pond in his backyard! And we were just the tip of the iceburg! We were on the very Northern edge of this storm... take a look at the damage reports extending to the southwest:

Click to enlarge

The red dots are the tornadoes. Interesting note... you can actually SEE the track of the supercell thunderstorms... tracking some of those tornado reports from southwest to northeast! These powerful tornadoes did much damage... as well as took lives. The latest reports state around 50 people died in the storms, but that number has been rising all day as more victims are found. All in all, yesterday will go down in the record books as the 2nd deadliest tornado outbreak in February since 1957! Be sure to tune in this evening... Erik will be doing a storm-recap on this historical event.

Speaking of severe weather... are you interested in becoming a Storm Spotter? Well just your luck, the National Weather Service meteorologists are beginning their training this week! You could attend one of their great meetings and learn the ropes. Last year, we had a few bloggers come out to the Skywarn meeting in Montgomery County... it would be great to see more of you this year! We will all be at that meeting again. Here is a list of local meetings:

GREEN CO.... FEB. 7th... 6:30pm
541 Ledbetter Rd. (Xenia).... in the media room.
Call 937-562-5130 for more info

WARREN CO... FEB 13th... 6:30pm
Wayne Township Building near Waynesville

CLINTON CO... FEB 20th... 7:00pm
Call 937-382-6673 for more info

BUTLER CO... MARCH 4th... 7:00pm
Butler Tech Public Safety Education Center
5140 Princeton Glendale Rd. (Hamilton)

SHELBY CO... MARCH 7th... 5:30pm
Honda Auditorium
Call 937-492-5635 for more info

MONTGOMERY CO... MARCH 8th... 9:00am
Skywarn's Severe Weather Spotter Training
Barry Women's Pavillion at MVH

MIAMI CO... MARCH 18th... 6:30pm
Miami Communications Center
Call 937-332-8560 for more info

MERCER CO... MARCH 19th... 7:00pm
Central Service Building (Celina)
Call 419-586-6468 for more info

LOGAN CO... MARCH 25th... 6:30pm
Ohio Hi Point Career Center (Bellefontaine)
Call 937-593-5743 for more info

DARKE CO... MARCH 26th... 7:00pm
Nature Center (Greenville)
Call 937-548-1444 for more info

CLARK CO... MARCH 28TH... 7:00pm
County Extension Office, 4400 Gateway Blvd. (Springfield)
Call 937-849-6322 for more info

Have a great evening!
Jamie

Soggy Day!

2008-02-05T17:49:00.000-05:00

It's a pretty big rain event for the Miami Valley! We're still under a FLOOD WATCH until Wednesday morning... and some of our northern counties (Mercer, Auglaize, Shelby and Miami) are under FLOOD WARNINGS. In Mercer and Auglaize Counties... high water was common on roadways after 2 to 4 inches of rain fell over night. Shelby and Miami Counties have a flood warning for the Great Miami River... where minor flooding is forecast in the usual places: the East side of Sidney and in Port Jefferson... Piqua and Troy.

We could easily see another inch or two of rain overnight into early Wednesday morning in some places... so we're not done just yet! Here is a look at some of the totals so far:

Beavercreek: 1.6"
Cedarville: 1.08"
Covington: .67"
Eaton: .7"
Greenville: .55"
Kettering: 1.5"
Middletown: 1.25"
New Carlisle: 1.2"
New Paris: 1"
Piqua: .5"
Sidney: .5"
Springboro: 1.2"
Tipp City: .75"
Xenia: 1.25"
Yellow Springs: 1"

We are also still watching the potential for severe weather. Right now, we are thinking it would happen after midnight, if everything comes together. Wind damage will be the main threat... we will keep you posted with an update at 10pm on the CW... and at 11pm on Channel 2.

And to top it all off... fog may be an issue, as well!

Anyway... send your rainfall totals/damage reports to weather@wdtn.com, or just leave us a comment below!

Thanks,
Jamie

Two Tuesdays

2008-02-04T17:36:00.000-05:00

We're heading into our second in a series of crazy-weather Tuesdays! If you remember last week, a very strong cold front moved through the Miami Valley... bringing very strong winds and severe thunderstorms. Well... it's going to happen again!

This time around, we also have the potential for some very heavy rain. We are thinking up to THREE INCHES of rain could fall in some spots... so localized flooding could be a problem. Both the NAM and GFS models are looking pretty close on rainfall:

Click to enlarge NAM model

Click to enlarge GFS model

The National Weather Service has also issued a FLOOD WATCH for the entire viewing area beginning early Tuesday morning thorugh Wednesday.

Not only will we have to deal with the flooding potential... but once again, severe weather is a threat. We are expecting strong thunderstorms and wind damage is possible. We will keep you posted on any warnings, of course! The best time for severe weather will be between 4pm and 1am... we will continue to refine that time-frame as we go through the day on Tuesday, so stay tuned!

Do you believe we made it to 53 degrees today?! On February 4th? That is unseasonably warm for this time of year... our average high is 35 degrees! It's actaully a far cry from our record high of 68, set back in 1890. BUT on Tuesday... we could come close to a new record high! The current record is 65-degrees... and we should be into the 60s!! :)

I would like to thank the Boonshoft Museum of Discovery for having me out to introduce Ivy on Groundhog's Day this past weekend! It was a great time... the kids absolutely LOVED it. I can't wait to take Claire someday...

"See" you tomorrow!
Jamie

Morning Update

2008-02-01T09:42:00.000-05:00

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is still in effect for our northern counties until 6pm:

Darke
Miami
Shelby
Champaign
Logan
Mercer
Auglaize

... but Montgomery, Greene, Clark, Preble... Butler, Warren and Clinton counties have been taken OUT of the warning, and are no longer under the threat of severe winter weather. However, we will still see some snow wrap around the backside of the storm as it moves away this afternoon.

As I mentioned last night, the main precipitation show didn't start until after 11pm... so that meant no snow for most of us. The ice was still a problem... although not as big a problem as it could have been in Dayton. Thankfully, temperatures at the surface came up above freezing this morning to switch things over to RAIN... and it really helped the situation!

Now the weekend is near!! I am ready... it has been a draining weather week for me! ;)
Jamie

Winter Storm!

2008-01-31T17:32:00.000-05:00

A WINTER STORM WARNING has been issued for the entire Channel 2 viewing area for tonight through Friday at 6pm. The storm will move in late this evening and will continue to affect us through much of Friday. It is a complicated forecast!! Here is what we are expecting...

9 to 11pm... Snow moves in. The later this happens, the less accumulation. If it happens REALLY late... we will skip the snow phase alltogether in Dayton.

Midnight-3am... A switch-over from snow to sleet to freezing rain. This will happen from South to North as warmer air is pulled into the region. We will likely see freezing rain much of overnight period, and travel will become hazardous!

6 to 8am... Some places could even see a switch over from freezing rain to RAIN... as temperatures approach (and possibly come just above) the freezing mark. This would help to melt whatever snow/ice is out there... but things will still be MESSY!

We made some graphics to help illustrate the timeline of the storm, and we will be showing them this evening... so be sure to watch!

As for snow/ice totals... we are going with:
3 to 5" North
1 to 2" Dayton and surrounding areas... with up to a half-inch ice accum.
Less than 1" South towards Cincinnati

One thing to keep in mind with this storm... we are in a critical position, regarding the storm's track. It looks like enough warm air will move in to switch the precip over rather quickly. Even a slight change in the speed or track of the storm, and the forecast will change!

New data comes in this evening... so stay tuned....
Jamie

Developing Storm

2008-01-30T22:54:00.000-05:00

Just a quick one tonight... as another storm is developing in the Southern Plains! This will move in THURS NIGHT and will bring a chance of wintery weather to the Miami Valley!

We do have a WINTER STORM WATCH in effect for most of the viewing area. (Preble, Montgomery and Greene counties northward). It looks like most of the snow accumulation will be in our northern counties... Mercer, Auglaize, northern Darke, Shelby... with lesser amounts South. But in the South we will have to deal with sleet and freezing rain!

The PATH of the storm is critical to how much snow/ice accumulation we will see. If it goes farther Northwest... we will see more icy stuff... if it goes farther Southeast... we will see more snow. Right now, I am leaning towards the more icy solution for DAYTON. Our precip will likely start as snow THURS EVENING (8 to 10pm)... then switch over to sleet/freezing rain for a good part of the night in Dayton. North will still see more snow. Will try to update the situation tomorrow... be sure to watch the newscasts as we track this next storm!

Jamie

Front Through... Now COLD

2008-01-29T22:42:00.000-05:00

Did you hear that Arctic Front come through, or what?! Wow! Our winds were howling... and easily gusting to 50 mph. Carl and I watched it from the backdoor... the rain was horizontal for about 3 or 4 minutes here at the station! There are widespread reports of tree limbs and powerlines down throughout the viewing area.

Here is a look at the peak wind gusts from some of our WeatherBug stations:

Maria Stein, Mercer Co: 47 mph
Fairfield, Butler Co: 53 mph
New Madison, Darke Co: 45 mph
Winchester, Randolph Co (IN): 48 mph
Urbana, Champaign Co: 52 mph
Springfield, Clark Co: 51 mph
Jamestown, Green Co: 47 mph

Now we turn our attention to the COLD AIR those winds are bringing in! A WIND ADVISORY is in effect, as we will likely continue to see gusts 45-50 mph overnight. Temperatures are plummeting behind the front... Indianapolis went from 54 degrees at 6pm to 19 degrees at 10pm... 35 degrees in 4 hours!! And another amazing statistic... St. Louis had a high of 73 degrees at 1pm today, and they are currently 16. WOW!!!!

Anyway, As you head out the door in the morning... we'll be in the teens... with wind-chill values below zero. We will see some of the water freeze up as our temperatures drop, so the morning commute could be a little slippery. We will have extensive coverage on 2 News Sunrise... beginning at 5am.

Now we're watching another storm... THURSDAY NIGHT into FRIDAY. Could we see some snow accumulation?? That is what we'll be tracking all week... be sure to watch!!

Jamie

Wild Ride!

2008-01-28T17:39:00.000-05:00

We are in for a wild weather ride as we head through TUESDAY into TUESDAY NIGHT. Another Arctic Cold Front will be moving through Dayton, and that means a HUGE drop in temperatures in a matter of HOURS. First, let's take a look at what is going on AHEAD of the front.

We are unseasonably mild! Highs today made it into the mid-40s across the area, and we can expect to be near 50 TUESDAY afternoon. Moisture is moving in ahead of our cold front, and we have seen some light rain around this evening. This is what LIVE DOPPLER 2X looked like at 5:45pm... click the image to see the current radar:

Rain will likely continue TUESDAY morning and afternoon, with the mild air in place. We will see scattered showers, with some periods of dry weather. But during the evening, as the cold front approaches... there is a chance of THUNDERSTORMS. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, with damaging winds being the main threat. We expect this to occur between 7 and 10pm TUESDAY evening.

Once the front is through... temperatures will be

I hope that gets the point across... our temperatures could drop 25-30 degrees in a matter of hours! That is just what happened in Rapid City, South Dakota today... they dropped from 55 degrees to 19 degrees in 4 hours!! Brrrrr!

It will also be WINDY behind the front as the colder air moves in. We will likely see a switch-over from rain to snow, as well... but will we see snow accumulation... that is the question! It is a complicated forecast, and we will be updating it on Channel 2 as new data comes in. Depending on how things set up TUESDAY, I may not get to do another blog entry... so stay tuned to the weathercast. Please comment below on any significant weather you experience, or you can email us at : weather@wdtn.com.

Thanks, and buckle up!! :)
Jamie

Jim and Debby blizzard experience!

2008-01-27T21:28:00.001-05:00

Thanks for all the emails and pictures!
Here is an email that was sent in from Jim. Interesting to read... Everything from Carls perspective forecasting blizzards 30 years (Next Article down) to all of the stories and perspectives on the blizzard! Keep them coming!
-Erik

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Hello friends. I was 17 years old, it was bad. I was in the country with just my mother. We had to get an old buck stove out of the attic, that was left there from when they used it for heat, back when my grandfather built the house in early 1900's.
Steam heat was installed in the 50's. During the blizzard in 78 we used old newspapers to burn for heat. Since mom was a paper deliver for the Dayton Daily News,for 24 years, she started in 68 country motor routes, we kept all the old ones to recycle once a year, to help the cost of unsold papers from the newspaper boxes. So that was a blessing to have. In the country, you always kept allot of food on hand in the winter for this reason. We closed off all but 2 rooms in the house, since it was a huge 12 room farm house with full basement & attic.After all one little stove would not heat it all. I carried water from the basement spring to use for cooking, washing & flushing the toilet.Had a gas stove to cook. We had no electric for 2 weeks, and was stranded there for 10 days.Dad was stuck at work in Oxford Ohio, which he could not leave, since no one else could get to work. There, he was a boiler operator for the college, they needed heat & steam to use there. Brothers & Sisters lived in town. So the lord provided for us, we were more blessed more than other people.We Lived west of Eaton on Winters Road ( Fit its name ) used the battery out of a car to talk on the CB radio and listen to the scanner.Tell you the truth, that was the one of the best times of my life. Thanks mother I miss you & dad so much. They passed away in 1994, heath problems.But they took so good care of us, so well, through the years.Thanks for reading Jim Wilkinson

Your Blizzard Memories...

2008-01-24T22:12:00.000-05:00

Today I am posting some of the 1978 Blizzard stories and photos we have received from viewers. It is amazing to read your stories and see the pictures to go along with them!

Here are two photos from the blizzard of 1978 located in Medway, Ohio
-Kendall Dechaene

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The morning that we woke up to the blizzard I opened the front door for my husband to go to work and I could not see out the storm door, as the snow had blown up on our porch and completely covered the front of the house!

My father was Chief of Police in Miami Township and my husband was a part-time police officer on the department. My husband and father made their separate ways to the Police Department and due to the snow they could not get the cars out on the roads to help those that needed assistance. However, several residents of Miami Township donated the use of their family snowmobiles to the department and for 2 days my husband and some of the other officers made emergency runs on those snowmobiles and their own cars if they had 4 wheel drive. They picked up medication and food and delivered them to those that called asking for help. We have 2 sons that were 12 and 10 at that time and once they got their snowsuits on they hit the street with their snow shovels and a couple of their neighborhood buddies to make some money shoveling snow.

We lived on Pinegrove Drive and the street below us is Silvercliff Drive off of Rt 741 and one particular house on Silvercliff was occupied by a single older lady and she was completely snowed in front door, garage door, and windows and these boys started shoveling her out. Once they got her all cleaned up driveway and all she paid them $100.00 took them all inside and gave them hot chocolate and cookies and they sat and watch TV with her for a long time that afternoon. Every time it snowed after that they ran to her house to make sure she was shoveled out. My boys talk about that every so often and wonder whatever happened to that sweet old lady.

The photo below was taken a day or so after we had dug ourselves out of the house and our cars out of the driveways.
-Judy Dickey

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I was 23 and a police dispatcher for the City of Englewood. I only lived a couple of blocks from the new City office building and I was picked up in a police cruiser to report to work because I couldn't get out of the driveway. Many of us worked double and triple shifts during the height of the storm. We became an emergency shelter and coordinated many rescue efforts to bring people into the shelter who were stranded in the more rural parts of our area. My job was to answer incoming emergency calls and then get help to wherever it was needed. We also provided communications for the City snow removal trucks who were tirelessly keeping the main emergency routes clear. We had a business in town that sold snowmobiles...and they let us use them to rescue people who had become stuck on the sides of roads and to bring people into shelter who were stranded in areas that couldn't be reached by automobile. Many of our officers could not get into work because of the bad roads. I called my 21 year-old brother who had a 4-wheel drive Land Cruiser and he transported some of the police officers in to the City building.
Below is a picture from my front porch in Englewood during the blizzard.
-Tom Eastridge, Dayton

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I can’t remember which one of you asked for memories of the 78 Blizzard but I have a few memories I’d like to share. I don’t have any pictures but I will never forget it. My name is Penny and I was living in Sidney Ohio back when the blizzard of 1978 hit. I was 5 months pregnant with my first child, we lived in an apartment above my parents at the time. We were all home but my dad who was on a business trip out west. It started as a wind, rain, thunder and lightening storm that just seemed to go on forever, then finally turned into the blizzard. By the next morning all you could see was white everywhere! By the afternoon of the next day I just had to go out walking in it, so my husband and I bundled up and went out to see what it was like, all at once I decided I wanted to make an “angel” in the snow and just fell back (I knew there was enough snow to protect my fall) scared my husband to death with me being pregnant and all, but I made my angel! That is a fun memory!

Then we received a call from my uncle who is a truck driver, that he was coming our way. The Piqua Post of Highway Patrol told him he wasn’t going any farther then there, but he said my sister is in Sidney and I am going there to stay with them! He had full load of lettuce on his truck and had to leave it running all night and day for 3 days. Didn’t work, still lost most of the lettuce but at least he was safe with us. He said that was the worst weather he had ever driven in since becoming a truck driver and had no desire to EVER do it again! It was a very eerie feeling looking out and not seeing any cars moving, or people outside or kids playing in it. My brother and his best friend got their sleds out, bundled up and went from neighbor to neighbor to see if they needed anything and then walked to our neighborhood grocery store when it finally go opened and picked up the items needed. They enjoyed it but of course mom was very worried about them being out in the cold and snow.

We were in the process of fixing up a house to move into, so we decided a few days later when roads were a little better to go and check on it, well, sitting at a traffic light, we were side swiped by a National Guard Unit truck turning in front of us. They had been called in to assisted with the removal of snow and keep an eye on the business around town since not many were open yet. Well, we were happy they were there, but that was not the way we wanted to meet them if you know what I mean.

My dad of course missed all the excitement. He tried to get a flight back and was told that that part of the country was shut down do to a blizzard. He just went on to his next business stop and finally got home a week later after all was over. As you can see, that was a very interesting time for people in Sidney Ohio. Very neat to have been living a part of history then.

Thank you and keep up the great job at TV-2. I watch you every day!
-Penny Willis, formally of Sidney, now living in Troy Ohio.

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I remember the Blizzard of 1978. I was 10 years old and was happy that my school - St. Helen in Riverside - was to be closed for two weeks. Unfortunately, it wasn't a free vacation since we were given a lot of homework the day before the storm hit. The school knew how bad the storm was to be and made sure that we were kept busy during our time off.

My parents had an early 1970s Cadillac with front-wheel drive underneath a huge V8 engine. Because of the weight under the drive wheels, it had little trouble driving in the snow and was one of the few vehicles able to drive during and after the storm.

The wind was so strong and persistent that it blew a huge mound of snow against the back side of our house and completely covered the back door, preventing it from being opened.
My father worked for the City of Dayton's street department at the time. He operated a snow plow and worked for two-days straight, catching a few winks in his truck when he could. He paid a visit to our house in Riverside (Mad-River Township at the time) and used his truck to plow the snow from our wrap-around driveway! This certainly would have gotten him in trouble with his bosses, but desperate times call for desperate measures!

Thanks for letting us share.
-Mike Frazier, Kettering

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I came to Dayton from Dallas, Texas for a job interview on the afternoon before the blizzard hit. I was supposed to fly out again the next day, but it was 3 days before I could get a flight out. In spite of the shock to my Texas-thinned blood, I accepted the job and have spent the last 30 years living happily in Dayton (and now in Trotwood).
-Dr. Kathleen Farmer, Professor Emerita, United Theological Seminary.

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I heard Mark talking about the blizzard of '78 and that was my first official winter in Ohio since moving here from Massachusetts with my parents. I really don't remember much since I was only seven years old but I do remember my father and neighbor digging our driveway and alley out at that time I was living in upper Dayton View close to Good Samaritan Hospital(actually Good Sam was in my backyard).
-Laura

Blizzard Memories...

2008-01-23T16:02:00.000-05:00

30 years ago this Saturday January the 26th I was a NEW meteorologist at Channel 2. I left a TV station in Youngstown in November of 1977 & moved my family to the Dayton area.

Two days before the Blizzard hit on Tuesday we were watching a possible storm forming over the Gulf Coast area by late Wednesday. As time went on we continued to watch the model (the NGM model... and yes only one model was available back then) show a major storm would be developing to our south.

Late Wednesday evening the storm was over Alabama & developing fast & moving northward with rain pushing into the Miami Valley. Our temperature was near 40 degrees here in Dayton while just to the west Indy was down to 10 degrees & near zero out in Illinois.

As the rapidly developing storm moved over us & to the north our winds shifted to the southwest & increased to 50-60mph with gust to 75mph. This did two things: 1) it dropped our temperatures within 1 hour to near 20, and 2) changed the rain to snow! The pressure of this storm dropped to near-record lows of 28.50 inches of mercury for the entire region. Here is a look at the surface map from that day. Notice the surface plots are plotted by HAND!

Click to enlarge

The temperature continued to drop rapidly to about 5 degrees by 5am. This rapid drop in temperature froze the water on the roads & within a few hours we had a horrible mess with 1-2" of ice on the roadways and all surfaces. Along with this, we had heavy snow falling and terrible blowing & drifting snow.

I woke up at 5am on Thursday morning to the wind howling outside & when I looked outside I was shocked to see my car in the driveway almost completely covered with snow. The station sent a jeep to pick me & an engineer up about 6am. It took us about an HOUR to get to the station & then the engineer could get us on the air & I started with live weather for the rest of the day.

I finally made it back home about 9pm with the help of the jeep & after a few hours of sleep made it back to work with again the help of the jeep.

One thing I remember, semi trucks were completely covered in snow at the side of the roads... all you could see was the antenna showing! Search parties went out to find those stranded in their cars and trucks. People that lived on farms out of the city were stranded for weeks! The photo below shows cars stranded on the highway:

Click to enlarge

All in all, this was the worst Winter storm I have experienced in my over 40 years of forecasting the weather! But if the same storm would happen today, we would be better prepared. For one, back then, all they had was salt to treat the roadways. And that didn't work when the temperature was below 20 degrees! I remember going to the barber shop that Saturday (it was only a few blocks away), and it took me several hours to get there and back! We finally started to get back to normal by the Monday of the following week.

Carl

Another Arctic Front

2008-01-22T17:23:00.000-05:00

Most locations started out with a trace to a half-inch of snow this morning... with isolated areas getting up to an inch. Here are some numbers from our weather checkers:

Covington: 1/2"

Kettering: 1/4"

Middletown: 3/4"

Tipp City: 1/2"

Xenia: 1/2"

Yellow Springs: 1/2"

The cold front is now off to our East, and temperatures are falling! We have dropped 10-degrees in about 3 hours... brrrrr! But it's only going to get COLDER as another Arctic Front heads our way.

Wednesday looks cold, but nice, as we get back into some SUNSHINE! Highs will be in the 20s ahead of said Arctic Front. That front will come through late Wednesday night into Early Thursday morning, bringing another chance of light snow. It also comes with those bitter cold temperatures! Thursday afternoon, we'll likely be in the teens... and down into the single digits by Friday morning.

The good news... the cold won't last LONG! We are expecting a warm-up as we head through the weekend!

In other news, this year marks 30 years since the Blizzard of '78. Saturday is the anniversary, and we are asking for your memories and/or photos of that storm. We will show some of them on Channel 2, and we will also post them online. Here is one photo from Cathy Ulring. It is a picture of her sons, David and Michael, who were 10 and 7 at the time... standing on the snow and touching the roof of their house in Beavercreek!

We look forward to hearing your stories, and seeing your snapshots. You can send them to weather@wdtn.com Later this week, Chief Meteorologist Carl Nichols will post some of his memories... he was right here in the weather center forecasting the Blizzard as it moved in!

Jamie

Light Snow and More Cold!

2008-01-21T17:54:00.000-05:00

A cold front is heading our way... that means snow showers for Tuesday! The snow will move in just in time for the morning commute, so there could be some slick spots out there. Here is a look at the snowfall forecast via the NAM model:

Click to enlarge

Most locations are at .01"... but there are pockets of .1". That would equal out to "an inch or less" forecast!

Behind the cold front... you guessed it... colder air again! That is actually the definition of a cold front... it's "the leading edge of colder air". So we'll be in the 20s on Wednesday... and then a 2nd cold front will put us in the teens for Thursday.

With the bitter cold air in place... many of you have gotten a little bored... and photography has actually been a nice distraction! We thank you for sending in your photos. Here are a couple from viewers... This first one is from Bill Schmidt of Farmersville. It's a shot of the frost that formed on one of his windows Sunday morning just as the sun rose. The low in Farmersville dipped to +1.

And this next picture is from Su Barry of Centerville. She forgot to turn off the fountain in her pond... and the little guy just kept trying to spit out water!

If you have weather photos, you can always email them to weather@wdtn.com.
That's all for now!
Jamie

Brief "Warm Up"

2008-01-20T20:48:00.000-05:00

Today was the coldest start of the winter... with an "official" morning low of ZERO degrees at the Dayton International Airport. Brrrr! Some of you may have dipped even lower at your house... here is a look at some of our weather checker's morning lows:

Bellefontaine: -3°
Cedarville: -1°
Greenville: -2°
Kettering: 0°
Richmond: -2°
Springfield: -2°
Xenia: 2°

Monday morning, once again, we will be in the single-digits. Some places will be near zero... some may even dip below zero! A large area of High Pressure will be right over us... brining clear skies and light winds... perfect for producing frigid conditions:

Click to enlarge

That's a 1039 mb high... very strong... and very cold! That SAME area of high pressure will bring us some sunshine again Monday afternoon. And as the high shifts off to our East, our winds will, in turn, shift in from the south-southeast. That will help to warm us a bit during the day. Isn't it sad when we're calling upper 20s "warmer"?? ;)

On Tuesday, our next cold front moves in... you can see the forecast NAM model below. We will see scattered snow showers with this one... maybe a half-inch to an inch in some locations. Stay tuned, as we tweak the forecast tracking this storm over the next two days!

Click to enlarge

Have a good one!
Jamie

Here... We.... Go!

2008-01-18T22:19:00.000-05:00

Are you ready for the Arctic Blast? It is heading our way! Right now (10pm) the Arctic Cold Front is located in Indiana. You can see it on the map below:

Click to enlarge

There are a lot of little numbers on that map... thankfully, they are color-coded! The RED numbers are TEMPERATURES. Do you see that Dayton (DAY) is 25 degrees? And 28 degrees in Indianapolis (IND). If you look where Chicago is (ORD), you will see a temperature of 13 degrees on the other side of the front! Quite a big temperature contrast!!

The front should be moving through the Miami Valley between 2 and 4 am... and by the early morning hours, our temperatures will be in the teens, with wind chill readings in the single digits. We'll only go down from there! As expected, The National Weather Service has issued a WIND CHILL ADVISORY for Saturday night through Sunday morning. Here is a break down of the day:

SATURDAY:
8am... 17°, with a wind chill of 5°
Noon... 12°, with a wind chill of -4°
5pm... 8°, with a wind chill of -9°
9pm... 3°, with a wind chill of -14°

We will also spend Sunday in the single digits and teens... but it won't be quite as breezy. Still, very cold!!

I hope you don't have to be outdoors! If you do, obviously... protect the extremities, which are most likely to get frostbite. (Nose, Ears, Fingers, Toes). When wind chills approach -20°, you can get frostbite in as little as 30 minutes...

Jamie

More Cold Talk...

2008-01-17T17:26:00.000-05:00

Our bloggers were prepared for the snowfall this morning, weren't you?! :) As expected, we got about a half-inch of snow... and untreated roads were a little slick. Thankfully, when we warmed a bit and switched to drizzle, things improved dramatically! Cold Front #1 that is bringing the gray, damp, unsettled weather will move through tonight. Until it's through... we will continue the drizzle... and it could mix with a little sleet/snow as our temperatures drop tonight. So keep that in mind if you're heading out this evening/overnight. Again, we won't see any major accumulations... but a dusting is possible. And with the cold temps, watch out for icy spots on the roads.

And, unfortunately, nothing has changed with Cold Front #2! It is still set to come through Friday night, bringing the coldest air of the season. Here is a look at the afternoon temperatures in Central Canada... I can only say one thing about that... Brrrrrrrrrr! (Yes, that is -27° F in Yellowknife!)

Click to enlarge

Carl and I have been talking about this all afternoon... the wind chill readings up there are near -30°!! Who lives up there... and why?! ;)

Our temperatures here won't get THAT cold, as the airmass will MODIFY as it heads south. But we will see our highs in the teens and lows near zero. As we mentioned yesterday, the winds will only add to the bitter cold... giving us wind chill readings well below zero! The National Weather Service may issue a WIND CHILL ADVISORY for Saturday afternoon/night. The WIND CHILL ADVISORY is issued whenever wind chill values are between -10 and -24° F. We'll have a break-down of the forecast cold/wind chill readings on the weathercasts tonight.

Soooo... what are some of your favorite indoor activities?! ;) ...Since we won't be going outdoors much this weekend with our little one. I know we will be playing with all the baby toys, and making our rounds to each mirror in our house (Claire loves to look at her reflection!). If we're feeling particularly zany... we might even break out the playmat! Yes, we lead exciting lives...

Until tomorrow,

Jamie

Light Snow Coming

2008-01-16T22:03:00.000-05:00

Greetings, Bloggers!

We are still tracking our 2 cold fronts. The first one will bring some light snow developing late tonight and continuing into Thursday morning. We are expecting amounts to be under an inch... but as temperatures will be below freezing for the morning commute... there could be some slick spots out there. The snow will come to an end as we move into the afternoon hours, and our temperatures will eventually rise above freezing. This could lead to some drizzle across the area. So expect a chilly, gray, dreary day for Thursday.

Cold front #2... this is the one many of you are afraid of. ;) This second front will bring in the Arctic Air just in time for the weekend! We will start the day Saturday in the teens... and fall into the single-digits before the day is done. Combine that with the howling winds, and our wind chill values could be in the range of -10 to -20 degrees!! Eeek! Take a look at the forecast upper level flow... valid Saturday evening:

Click to enlarge

The flow will be coming straight out of Central Canada... where there is currently a bitterly cold Arctic Airmass. We will be shivering until Monday!! Watch the weathercasts Thursday evening, and we will break down the arrival of the cold air for you...

Jamie

ARCTIC AIR WATCH!!

2008-01-15T15:50:00.000-05:00

ARCTIC AIR WATCH...

While temperatures for us will be running above average WED and THU, it won't last long! We are watching 2 Cold Fronts this week. There is Arctic Air out there... and it's heading our way!

The first cold front will come through on THU. This front will bring the chance of some very light snow... much like we just saw over the past couple of days. But then the bottom drops out as the second, stronger cold front moves through.

Let's look at the current temperature map for Canada:

Click to enlarge

The temperatures on the map above are in degrees Celsius... so it may look worse than it really is. However, we're talking single digits and teens... heading our way! It looks like the coldest air will reach us Friday night, making for a bitter cold weekend. Highs on SAT/SUN will struggle to get out of the teens!

But here are some warm thoughts... on the verge of the looming cold...

According to a NOAA....
*2007 Was Tenth Warmest for U.S.
*Fifth Warmest Worldwide
*The average U.S. temperature for 2007 was 54.2degrees F
*Six of the 10 warmest years on record for the contiguous U.S. have occurred since 1998, part of a three decade period in which mean temperatures for the contiguous U.S. have risen at a rate near 0.6 degrees F per decade.

We will update you on the two approaching fronts as the week goes on!
Jamie

Sundays Snowfall Possibilities

2008-01-12T20:45:00.000-05:00

Some good News! The system coming in on Sunday is not only weak but rather moisture starved so we wont see much precipitation. Most of the energy with this Low is being transferred to a coastal storm... and as you can see in the NAM 18Z Model below.. we are just left with some light precipitation. There is one problem that we are going to have to deal with... and that's duration. Looks like we are going to be dealing with this system for a couple days. Sunday afternoon temperatures will begin to fall changing light rain over to snow by evening. Snow will remain on the light side with most locations seeing about a trace to an inch by Monday morning. During the day snow showers will continue with another possible inch. So yes things will be wintry.... but manageable. There is a chance that northern and western communities could see slightly more with some enhancement off Lake Michigan. I wouldn't be surprised if places in Mercer, Auglaize, and Northern Preble picked up 1-3 total by Monday night. Tuesday flurries are possible with another trace. Of course we'll continue to update the forecast and keep you posted!
-Erik

Showers Then Colder!

2008-01-10T16:50:00.001-05:00

Showers are moving through the Miami Valley this late afternoon, as a storm system approaches. Radar trends are showing the heaviest rain to remain to our South and East... but we will still be dealing with scattered showers as we head through the evening. There could even be a rumble or two of thunder. If you live down in Butler, Warren, Clinton or even Greene County... you may get hit by a heavier pocket of rain.

The severe weather with this system will remain even South of there... check out the storm reports already filed for today:

Click to enlarge

Quite a few tornado reports in Mississippi and Alabama! After this front swings through, we'll notice colder temperatures for Friday. It looks like a good deal of low-level moisture will hang around, too... so a gray day is on tap... low clouds with possible drizzle... maybe even a few snowflakes mixed in.

Temperatures will remain chilly for the next several days, so if you have been waiting for the return of winter-like weather... this is it! We are even tracking our next chance of snow, you can see the storm forecast to head our way Sunday and Monday... a big trough is visible at the 500mb level:

Click to enlarge

That would be valid Sunday afternoon. It is still quite far off to get a good feel of what this will mean, but we'll be watching it over the next few days, and will keep you posted!

I also wanted to include this account of WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S thunderstorm event. This was sent to me from Bill Telzerow, our Xenia weatherchecker. It is very interesting, as he says he has never experienced anything quite like it! I hope you enjoy the read!

Jamie:

A good friend called me about 10:20. We discussed the Tornado Watch; and the Low Level Jet occurrence in progress, i.e. all the low level scud from about 900mb to 1000mb was racing North in the area of 50 to 60 MPH, with a bit of a NorthWest component. At the same time there was a rather interesting Meso-Scale "feature" in the Richmond area with a fairly narrow squall line extending to the South. It was impossible to tell whether it was a Meso type feature, or a small Vorticity Maximum trying to form (Maybe you can help there). Concurrent with this, my weather station began showing wind gusts starting to increase (Mostly 30 to 40 MPH), and the atmospheric pressure just crashing... I went from 29.56 to 29.46 inches of mercury in 35 minutes, before slowly increasing, with no apparent reason for this crash.

As the prefrontal squall line moves E/NE, my wind gusts steadily increased until about 11:10 when I peaked out at 47 MPH. Between 10:45 and the top gust I had no fewer than twelve gusts (Maybe more) over 40 MPH. No Lightning/Thunder. As the pre-frontal line approached, when I expected more mixing down (I really anticipated a gust of 50+) through the low level Jet max, my wind gusts started to back down, little by little, not dramatically. I had one more gust of any importance a little after 12:00 A.M. at 46, on th MPH on the Cold Front. Total rainfall .85 inches of rain, no hail... Interesting evening... We haven't had our house rattled like this, for this extended period of time before.
Just Fun for a Weather Fanatic...
Bill Telzerow
NWS I.D. OGN510

Enjoy the evening!
Jamie

The Return...

2008-01-08T12:35:00.000-05:00

Hello, Bloggers!

It is great to be back from maternity leave and forecasting again! It is funny... even after being off for more than two months... how everything just comes back like I never left. :) However, it was diffifcult to leave little Claire today, of course! I was hoping she would be sleeping... that would have been easier... but no such luck! She was wide-awake and smiling! Soooo hard to leave that cute little face! Here are some recent pictures of the little one:

She has curly hair... don't really know where that comes from! But it is CUTE! :)

On to the weather... a very strong cold front will be coming through tonight, and as Brian mentioned below... we are expecting some strong winds. So secure any items you have outdoors around your home!

Here is a look at the surface winds forecast by the NAM model:

Click to enlarge

You can see they are forecast to be around 30-knots sustained... which would be ~35mph... with higher gusts. Gusts around 50 mph or greater!

We will see showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms through the evening into the overnight. But the rain will be gone by the time the morning commute comes around. We could see some heavy rain, at times... and most places should pick up a half-inch or more pretty quickly. Email or comment us your rainfall totals, and your wind experiences! We will try to show some of your info on the late news tonight.

Tune in as we talk about some BIG temperature changes!!
Jamie

More Wind on the Way!

2008-01-08T09:36:00.000-05:00

Seems like this has been a fairly consistent feature so far this winter...big swings in temperature and as those changes take place, quite a bit of wind. A wind advisory has been issued for the region as another one of these systems passes through Ohio tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms occurred west of us yesterday with the front, but the instability does not look quite as strong today over our region. Still, gusts to 50 will be possible later early tonight and that still could produce some minor wind damage. The SPC has us outlooked with a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for early tonight although I don't think we will hear a lot of rumbling. Winter weather gradually builds back in for later this week.

If there would be any severe weather later today, be sure to keep it tuned to WDTN for the latest.

COLD WEATHER!!! WOW

2008-01-02T21:00:00.000-05:00

The first "real" arctic surge of has made its way into the Miami Valley.

Here are some of the readings we had around this morning

Saint Henry 6

Winchester, IN 3

Vandalia 5

Springfield 9

Oakwood 7

Y. Springs 7

Downtown Dayton 8

But things are going to be even colder as we head into Thursday Morning!!!

Snow was also a factor as it built up across the Valley. Some locations saw as much as 5 inches over the past three days.

Beavercreek - 3.5"

Bellbrook - 4"

Bradford - 2"

Brookville - 3.5"

Camden - 2"

Covington - 3"

Eaton - 2.5"

Fairborn - 3"

Eaton - 2.5"

Greenville - 3.5"

Kettering - 3.5"
New Carlisle - 5"

Sidney - 4"

Tipp City 3.5"

Thank you wxcheckers for heading out into the snow to get those measurements! Brrrrr
At points you may have looked like this little guy. Su Berry, thank you for the picture. He looks cold!

Pattern Change.... R U ready for it??

2007-12-28T12:32:00.000-05:00

For the last few weeks we've seen a very active Sub-Tropical Jet (red line). Thats been breeding storm system after storm system... but luckily for us we've been mostly on the warmer side of things keeping us in the rain. All we needed was a hick-up from the northern branch to get some cooler temperatures in here and we could have seen plenty of snow, but it looks as if before that happens our pattern is going to change.
And its going to change into the pattern below. East coast Trough, West Coast ridge. And for us that means Northwesterly Flow and very cold temperatures. This pattern is excellent at giving us small doses of snow from Alberta Clippers but is mostly known for its bitter cold temperatures. If you dont like the bitter cold (which will be here for the start of the New Year) I do have some good news... Its a temporary set up... and it looks as if things are going to revert back in another 2 weeks.